live NL at Foxwoods

Last night, after the tourney was winding down, we got off a 5,5 blind NL HE game, $100 minimum buyin.


I got tired of waiting for it to start, so I sat down for an hour in the $150/300 OSE game. Won basically every hand I played, >+20 big bets, cha-ching.


Took it ALL over to the NL game, about $12,000. Thought I had every covered at least 10:1, until one guy put $8,000 on the table. I played my normal loose-raise-at-least-half-the-hands game, and he played very tight and solid.


Then, the big hand.


I made it $20 to go in middle position. One caller, all else fold, and 8K-man makes it $300 to go from the BB. I'm pretty sure he has the premium pair, most likely AA. I call with my Qc9c, and really like my spot.


Flop is 9h9d7h. He bets $300, I call. Turn is not a rag, it's a Td or something similar, that makes a straight possible (but HIGHLY improbable for him), and puts another flush draw out there. He bets $300 again, I raise to $1000, he calls. River is not a total blank, makes another straight possible I think. He checks, I bet $1000, he calls. I announce and show my hand, he mucks.


I could tell this hand really hit him hard, more so than just losing the $2600. However, to give him his due credit, he took it like a real player. He came over near me to grab an empty rack, and said words to the effect of "nice hand", and it sounded sincere, not at all condescending. I hope I always take my beats as well.


BTW, we had 98 players in the NL HE tourney, prize pool over $9000, almost $3200 to the winner. May not be a record, but it's the biggest I recall.


Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

Greg,

Don't you love it when a tight deep stack announces his hand with a giant over bet. YUM YUM

Jason

Why didn't you bet more on the river? The pot is over $3000 at that point. After all, you said you were raising half the hands already and bought in for 12K at a 5-5 blind game. The guy must have thought you were an action guy.

Greg, as you are aware, I was in that game and I, too, did very well. I just missed the hand you described, however, as I was cashing out. But I heard about the hand from the other end. I applaud you for your comments about this player. He does, indeed, take his beats well and I have great respect for him as a player and a friend.

I have great respect for you as well for your abilities and your similar demeanor when handed a big hit.


As with all poker stories, the version I heard was slightly different than the one I read here. Having missed the hand I can't get into how it went down, so for arguments sake, we'll use your description as accurate.


That being said, I have a very real question regarding your play of the hand. I admit not being an expert at math, odds and EV but am a pretty fair no-limit player, I think you'd agree.

But I really want to understand more about EV and how it comes into play when you are playing a huge stack and when there is another player, also playing from a deep stack.


If you know your opponent has a "premium pair" as he did, how can the call of the additional $280 preflop be correct? Here's my thinking...


If you are correct on your read then you can not be helped by just one card on the flop. You MUST hit 2 cards on the flop, ie: 2 clubs, 2 nines, 2 queens, a queen and a nine or a 10 and a jack.

Anything less than this I just don't see you being able to make any correct call when he bets the flop. Ie; what do you do if the flop brings a single queen only and he bets a pot size bet? Are you going to lay this down?


According to my simulator, you will win with your Q9c a surprising 18% of the time even when your opponent holds a premium pair AA or KK and one of them is the higher club. But even with this 1 in 5 chance to win (through to the river) how can you EXPECT to get him to commit 5 times the $280 you had to call preflop?


What if you flop the flush yet a 4th club comes? What if you make a Queen high straight yet a Kings comes? What if you make 2 pair, Queens and nines, yet the board pairs elsewhere? Then your opponent is going to be taking a huge portion of your stack instead of the other way around.


I truly mean no disrespect here, I just really want to understand more about EV as it applies to big stacks going to war. Can it really be correct to make many big preflop calls, with lesser holdings? Can you really EXPECT payoffs from opponents even when you have them pegged correctly? What if he had mucked on the turn when you made it $1,000? Was the EV correct then to make the preflop call of $280, headsup, with Q9s?


Any info you provide would be greatly appreciated. Somewhere in my head, someone made a mistake on this hand, or multiple mistakes and I'd like to fully understand more about it.


You saw me make a mistake last night that worked in my favor. I justified my play at the time but realized later that I had made a mistake. That's how I measure my game. by the lack of mistakes I make. I will not make that same mistake again, (I hope) and I think I played pretty much mistake free at all other times during this session. But I'd like to hear more about your thinking in these games so that I can really get a handle on EV and big stack play.


Any comments are greatly appreciated.


Keep playing hard! And congratulations on the big night!

He knows me from past experience, and I thought 1K was the best bet. As soon as he called it I realized I had misread him, and that he would have called a lot more. If I had bet 1500, he might fold, but if I had bet 3000, there was a very good chance that he puts me on a steal against his obvious AA and calls. My mistake.


Or, I might really have been correct. He's a good player who will do very well in the game after he gathers more experience.


Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

Yes, I do love it. And since when have you been coming to 2+2. Welcome. I wish I could play in your game every Friday night at the Trop, but 5 hours each way is too far for me. See you at the WSOP.


Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

Glen, thanks for your kind words.


You're right, I need to hit the flop VERY hard, and I know it. If it had come Q high or 9 high, I would often fold. However, it all depends upon my read of how much I can win from him when I do hit. Like you say, I won't hit big enough that often, but if I can win enough when I do, it's worth it. The question that is unanswerable (but estimable) is how much? I thought I could often win that $2600, and maybe even the whole $8000, if I hit the right flop. Given that, I felt it was correct to call. If he hadn't been out of position, I would've folded quickly preflop.


Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

Glen,


I was getting ready to ask Greg the same thing! However I decided to read the responses first and saw yours.


I think if this opponent is behind him, late MP, CO or the button, Greg would have mucked to his big raise BTF.


The flop came perfect (for his read). I do agree though, that he should have bet more on the end; say $2k or so, representing the possiblitily that he didn't want a call.


I've never played with Greg (may never either) but watched him once (Greg, I assume that was you at UB as "fossilman") last week in a $1-2 P/L OM8 game.


I did see a hand where an opponent got very lucky on him at the river and "fossilman's" comment was "nice fxxxxxx catch"! (UB censors all swear words). He then left the table. That just shows me he is human.


Greg can play the way he does (fairly loose BTF raising half the hands first in), because from what I've gathered of him, he plays post flop extremely well and reads his opponents and situations well also. And I consider myself a good judge of character.


I read this forum (P/L and N/L) everyday but don't post much. However, I have learned a lot from Greg (and others also), especially about N/L. I've only played N/L HE in tourneys and P/L HE live but am starting to dabble with N/L a bit at UB.


I am anxious to hear Greg's response.


KC50

It takes me awhile to get everything down. I see as I was editing my response, Greg responded.


KC50

Fossil (Holder of the Rocks):


I must have been in the netherworld... (perhaps in madagascar looking for treasures) ;-) I remember the flop and river being quite different. I also don't consider myself passive enough to just call the 2 big bets. But that is of no concern. We'll leave that one to the poker gods.


My question hinges around how hard you have to hit the flop and how often. I understand the exponential return on the preflop action but it seems you are bleeding too much money on a consistent basis. I can balance this with your math background and attack of +EV, but is there no concern for risk in the form of variance???

-Speedy Pete

PS: How about we get another little shin-dig going next Tues? I'll hit the crap table while you all play the tourney. ;-)~ 1K each 5 and 9 anyone? Glen?

PPS: Great playing with you and I look forward to future "encounters."

>


Not fossil-man style!!!


-SP

J9s, or T9s? tough break.....

I've been playing on pokerpages online school in hopes of winning a WSOP seat. many of them are new to N/L, and they condem playing cards like yours...calling them "crap hands"


they just dont understand the surprise value will

sometimes let you win a huge pot, or that you may find yourself in good spot to win with a bluff


you did good...and yor last bet was OK cause you wanted him to call

Hill Billy...


I was just busting chops.


AA it was.

I censored myself. I typed the xxxxx.


I do lose my temper occasionally online, though it's almost unheard of in a live game. In fact, in a live game, I hardly ever feel mad, let alone show it.


Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

You know, now I do remember the xxxxxxx. I stand corrected.


KC50

hey speedy...ya got me...AA a tough hand to play, especially up front, against tricky opponents.


best wishes

Pete,


My recollection of the flop is VERY strong. I know that memory is never 100% reliable for any of us, but I am ready to bet my whole bankroll that I flopped trips. I recall 997 all red, as I was wondering what are the chances you have A9, 77, or AKs in hearts. My memory of the turn and river is not strong, but I'm pretty certain the turn was a diamond that made a straight possible. As for the river, I can't even remember if it was red or black.


Thank you for the compliment, I enjoy playing with. I wish you were easier to beat, but I'm always glad when someone who's friendly joins my game.


If I go with my read, I have to hit the flop very hard. At a minimum, I need a pair and a real draw, or a pair and both backdoor draws (straight and flush). In order to be wanting to put more money in the pot, I need to have 2 pair or better so that I've become the favorite.


Another issue here was position. What if the flop had come Qh8h3c? I know my Qc9c is behind, but if you bet another $300 on this flop, I can call. I have 5 outs to gain the lead, as well as any club, T, or J to add 4-9 more outs to my draw. Also, if a heart comes, I might be able to bluff you off your hand, especially if you don't have the Ah or Kh in your pair. Of course, that's a tough judgment call that I don't want to make against you and many other players, but some guys fold easier than others.


If you had only $3,000 in your stack, I certainly would've folded to the $300 raise preflop. $4,000 in your stack, I probably fold also. If you were a weaker player, I might've called even if you only had $2,000-2,500, because I would've likely won more when ahead, found it easier to bluff you, and lost more when behind.


Put a million in your stack (and mine), and I call you if you're Stu Ungar on his best day, because I might flop the pure nuts and get the money.


Unless something unexpected comes up, I'll definitely be there again Tuesday. And if I again don't advance to the end of the tourney, I'll be ready to fire up the big bet poker.


Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

Given that you and your opponent were so deep compared to the blinds I think your opponent played it wrong on every street including pre-flop. I'd have played a much smaller pot for the simple reason that I wouldn't feel that I could win a big pot from you with AA.

On this I will agree if Fossil was a normal opponent I played it VERY wrong. But I truly believed he would put the money in (as he did) as a big underdog. In my mind this negated the chances of diaster.

However I do find value in keeping the pot small, slowing down ect... maybe next time.

Come down to the woods and play with us... Fossil Man, myself and a few other will be the ambass's for the tuesday night game! Lets make it a regular thing, and not let Glen play! ;-)

-Speedy

Let's talk about another hand from the same session. Whe I first entered the game I came in with a slightly less the average stack, $340 but far less than Greg's $12,000. I had to sit on Greg's immediate right...not the place to be! Especially with him raising every other hand and having such a huge bankroll. But I did manage to pick up a couple of chips through steals and a player got knocked out. I had the first seat change (2 to Greg's left) and called for it as the cards were being dealt. I was still on his right though for 1 more hand and picked up AA. I raised to I think $45. Greg re-raised to about $100. I smooth called.


The flop came perfect rags 10 hi. I checked, Greg made a pot sized bet or maybe less and I moved all-in. He called and showed me KK. I think he was surprised when I rolled over my aces. The board stayed clean and I doubled through.


But that's not the hand I wanted to discuss. That was simply a lucky cold deck and I moved to my new seat with some $600 and change.


I got very lucky on a hand shortly thereafter, (another story I promise to post later today), against Speedy Pete when I hit a 2 outer after reading him wrong and doubled through again. Yeah, Pete had a rough night but still played well.


But here's the hand that came up in hour 2 that I wanted to post and my thoughts. The kid now on my right is a relative newcomer but has been doing a surprisingly good job in the Tuesday night NL tourney. Many final table finishes and a couple of wins in the past 6 months ( I think he made the final 7 weeks running). And learning quick. He raised on this hand to $75 and I looked down to 2 black Kings. I paused for a moment and thought it through. He could have had AA but I was leaning harder towards QQ, or JJ. I checked his stack, about $650 left and I sat now at about $1200. I knew I wanted to raised and get heads up, but how much to raise? If I raise to little , he may muck or not commit after the flop. And a small, double raise may invite Greg or many others in. I decided that if I made it $475 I would get my headsup play and perhaps disguise my hand as a middle pair or AKs.


It worked perfect, although I must admit my heart raced as all folded back to him and he said all-in. I thought again about the AA. The flop did bring an ace on the turn and again I was worried but I rolled over my KK and he said "Good". and mucked. I asked him if it was QQ. And he simply nodded. He said he thought I had JJ.


He did say something about "I knew better than to go up against you" but dug back in his pocket and I think he might have even recoverred as he made 2 big hits thereafter.


Questions and comments please. Was the $400 raise a good strategy to diguise the hand? I wanted to make sure that if he moved back in over-the-top that I was pot-committed as he only would be raising me another $250 or so.


Keep playing hard! And I'll tell you about my lucky 2-outer and my thinking on the hand later after work.

Man... I think I am a little cuter than Stuey.


Anyway... see you tuesday next.


-Speedy

I hated that raise.


I never like to raise much more than the pot, and prefer to raise less than the pot. Especially in your spot where your raise totally committed you to the pot.


While it worked out great for you this time, and may on many other occasions in the future, it's just too high a price to pay when you win uncontested ($475 to win less than $100), and it's way too high a price when you lose (as in if he had AA instead). If he had anything other than QQ you probably just win his 75, except the AA where he takes you down.


With rare exceptions, stick to pot-sized raises. Or less.


It also makes your steals a WHOLE lot cheaper, since it's typical for you to bet less.


Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

You know me fairly well. I am a big fan and believer in pot sized bets. I put that amount in intentionally to do 2 things.... 1. to make him think I was trying to force him out with a medium pair (this fact is contingent on him not having aces which was my sincere 80% feeling and read of him) and 2. to make sure that if he was going to move all-in over the top, as he did, that I was pot committed. Had he been on say AKs, and I had made a raise to say $200 and he then pulled that same move, I might have been forced into releasing the best hand.


Maybe my thinking isn't the same as yours here. I knew I had him more than coverred. I did not want to be put into a position where I had to then make a tougher decision like if he smooth called me and an ace hit the board and he leads out. My raise made all future decisions no-brainers. And I was pretty sure of my read on him from playing against him many times in the NL tourney. I have owned him through the flop on almost very hand we have ever played. (You heard him say after the hand, "I should have known better against you") I was confident that he would do what he did.


Had he mucked, I'd have been very pleased to have won the $90 that the pot had given me. Any smaller bet might have resulted in a player coming in with an ace and me losing with the best preflop hand. I generally stick to the pot sized bets in NL, but this situation called for a different strategy and it was successful. You may feel I was lucky, I feel as though it was well concieved and executed.


Keep playing hard.

How can I argue with success? ;-)


I think you were lucky he had QQ. If he had JJ or TT, I bet he folds.


But, maybe I'm wrong, and maybe you're better at reading the player. I've never said I was great at the psychology of poker. I know it's the one area where I need to improve to really bring my game to a higher level. So, it's what I work on the most. Unfortunately, you can't work on it except when you're in the game, and I still only get to play once or twice a week.


Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

Quote... "I think you were lucky he had QQ. If he had JJ or 10,10, I bet he folds".


He would have probably smooth called and I might have lost him if he missed the flop. But he may have lead out too. I've seen him do both.


I thought about smooth calling him preflop and getting him on the flop, but I felt confident I could extract what I did preflop.


Oh well, JMHO.