QJ suited vs 88 or 22

[BugSplatt]

Why is 88 favored over 22 vs the QJ suited? I asked this on the post about Negraneau, but maybe a new post will get a bit more attention.

My way of thinking:

Both the pp 8's and pp 2's are under the same mathematical probablity of flopping a set. However, you could flop a set with the 88 and lose (flop comes 8, 9, 10 for example) whereas if you flopped a set with the 2's (2, 9, 10 ) the QJ hand is still drawing.

Both the 8's and 2's have the same chance of making a straight, but if there was a straight to the Q with the 8's (flop and turn could be 9, 10, J and Q) the JQ hand still has outs to either win or tie the hand. However, if the 2 hits a straight on the turn, unless two suited cards are on the board that correspond with the JQ leaves the JQ hand drawing dead.

Could one of you mathematical wizards set me straight on this?

Bug

[garyc8]

88 has 5 four cars straights (Q,J,T,9/J,T,9,7/T,9,7,6/ 9,7,6,5/7,6,5,4). 22 has only 2 (6,5,4,3/ 5,4,3,A).

[pzhon]

[ QUOTE ]
Why is 88 favored over 22 vs the QJ suited? I asked this on the post about Negraneau, but maybe a new post will get a bit more attention.

[/ QUOTE ]
There are more straights involving 88, but that is not the dominant factor. It is easier for 22 to get counterfeited by a board like 95533. On that board, QJ missed, but the pair of 2s doesn't play. 88 would.

QQ does better than 88 over AK, even though 88 makes many more straights. Again, the 88 is more likely to get counterfeited.

[BugSplatt]

To Cleveland Kevin and pzhon:

Thank you for your responses.

Bug

[DyessMan89]

Yup, more straights. If only I got the 1st post in I would have looked smart. /images/graemlins/wink.gif