House Advantage for online blackjack?

[eric5148]

I'm trying to decide whether or not it's worth it to learn blackjack.

Intercasino has a $90 monthly bonus, and you need to make $2,250 in wagers to clear it. They have different types of BJ, though. One is a single deck with the dealer hitting on soft 17. The other is 8 decks but the dealer stands soft 17. Both games allow double after splitting.

So my question is: how much can I expect to lose at each game making $5 bets, and will the $90 bonus make it +EV?

Also, what's a rough estimate of the standard deviation?

Thanks,
Eric

[Lori]

bonuswhores casino section (http://www.bonuswhores.com/casino/)

You may also wish to search through the archives on the internet forum.
This kind of thing was popular about 3 months back.

Lori

[pzhon]

In addition to what Lori said, let me add the following:

/images/graemlins/spade.gif Different blackjack variations have different house advantages, but in general the house advantage is roughly 0.5%. To determine the exact house advantage, check www.wizardofodds.com (http://www.wizardofodds.com) which has an extensive blackjack section and reviews of casino software packages. For InterCasino, look under Cryptologic. By the way, Cryptologic sites usually have a $15 or $25 minimum bet for the single-deck games with a low house advantage.
/images/graemlins/spade.gif You can clear the bonus at InterPoker/InterCasino by playing poker. Each raked hand counts $5 toward the wagering requirement, so to clear the full $90 bonus, play 450 raked hands. That's worth over $8/table-hour at a full table, enough to win at $1-$2 even if you play poker badly. See my review of InterPoker and basic strategy for Hold'em on the Online Blackjack Guide's poker forum (http://www.websitetoolbox.com/tool/mb/blackjackguy?forum=56).
/images/graemlins/spade.gif There are many worthwhile blackjack bonuses available. How much you can win from them depends on how much variance you can stomach. For example, suppose you get a $100 bonus with a WR of $3000, HA 0.5%. If you play $1/hand, the total house advantage you expect to pay is very close to $3000*0.005 = $15, so you expect to win about $85. At 600 hands/hour, it will take you about 5 hours, so you get $17/hour. The standard deviation will be about sqrt(3000)*1.15 ~ 60. If you play $10/hand, it will only take about a half-hour, and the standard deviation is higher, about sqrt(300)*10*1.15 ~ 200, but you will make about $170/hour. You have a good chance to bust out, which actually decreases the house advantage you have to give up at most sites. (At InterCasino, however, you would have to complete the wagering requirements on the next month's bonus.)