99 vs a tag + 1

[detruncate]

I used to diligently report my thinking along the way in these posts. I stopped doing it in favour of participating in the ensuing discussion so as not to pollute the comments. Apparently people like a little more content if the ongoing debate in SS is to be believed, so let's try a retro post.

Party Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

MP2 is hip to the brown trout; CO is LP-P (95%/0.73 Tot-A/50 hands), but isn't above a bluff every now and again.

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="CC3333">MP2 3-bets</font>, <font color="666666">1 fold</font>, CO calls, <font color="666666">2 folds</font>, BB calls, Hero calls.

No way I'm open-limping with an aggressive player on my left. His 3-bet might be partly influenced by my open-raise, but it's probably not particularly light.

Flop: (12.50 SB) 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, T/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(4 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">MP2 raises</font>, CO calls, BB folds, Hero calls.

I lead to try to get it heads up. MP2 will probably raise me with virtually anything he 3-bet pf with.

Turn: (9.25 BB) T/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, MP2 checks, <font color="CC3333">CO bets</font>, Hero calls, MP2 folds.

Free card anyone? When CO wakes up, I decide to just call. It's pretty obvious MP2 is hoping it'll be checked through. CO's either on trips or behind and likely staying behind.

River: (11.25 BB) K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="CC3333">CO bets</font>, Hero calls.

Not much point raising here I don't think. If he's bluffing, he's not going to call. If he's on trips, I'm getting 3-bet.

Final Pot: 13.25 BB
<font color="green">Main Pot: 13.25 BB, between CO and Hero.</font>

I'm having trouble balancing the danger of giving a free card vs the possibility of being raised on the turn, and probably play these situations too passively a lot of the time.

3-bet the flop? Lead the turn? Both? Neither?

Thanks in advance.

[Jimbobobb]

One quick question - what does MP2 think of *you*? If I'm at a table with you, and I'm behind you, I'm only three betting you with probably AK/TT/JJ/QQ/KK/AA. However if villian thinks you're avg smo, there's probably a wide variety of hands he'll 3-bet you with here. I'll assume that for my post.


With MP2 being a 2 + 2er, I'd think there are many hands that he 3-bets pf/raises that flop with that you are ahead of. For that reason, I'd actually give it a 3-bet on the flop. If he caps I can lay it down on the turn no problem. I only take this line because I think the pot is big enough I'd like to just get MP2 out of the hand and win it. Seeing how you didn't 3-bet, I'd lead the turn, and probably fold to an MP2 raise. Calling the river here looks good as you know CO will take stabs at the pot with some scare cards.

[blackaces13]

[ QUOTE ]
If I'm at a table with you, and I'm behind you, I'm only three betting you with probably AK/TT/JJ/QQ/KK/AA. However if villian thinks you're avg smo, there's probably a wide variety of hands he'll 3-bet you with here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree. Why would he have tighter re-raising standards against a player who he knows will raise any hand he's first in with from MP than against a player who probably raises only a certain set of starting hands regardless of other factors? A lot of average shmos actually have pretty tight raising standards.

[blackaces13]

I'd play the hand exactly the same way, so you're probably in trouble. I like the flop bet hoping to get raised and knock people out leaving you HU against overcards.

After the Co sticks around and bets the turn there's a good chance you're behind but the pot is big enough to just call it down.

How do you feel about leading the turn and folding to a raise? I think the fold would be safe, it costs you less than calling down when you're behind, and you don't risk letting AK look at a free river card. This may be the best line.

[Jimbobobb]

Agreed - I wasn't looking at hero's position pre-flop.

[Entity]

Ok -- I'm torn between betting the turn and folding to a raise, or check/calling it down.

You say he's LP-P -- how often does he bluff this second ten with his mighty A6o? How often does he call down with A6o? And finally, does he raise with a ten? Will he bluff-raise this ten?

If he'll raise with a ten but call down with a 6, you should probably bet this, and fold to a raise, especially given an LP-P read. You earn 2 bets when you're ahead (turn &amp; river), assuming he doesn't draw out on the river to an overcard, and you lose 1 bet when you're behind.

That being said, I think the line you took is fine, but I think mine would work as an alternate if you know he A) won't bluff-raise you, and B) will call down with A6 or J6 or whatever.

Rob

[Meraxes]

I had that guy as 96.43 VP$IP.

[detruncate]

Yeah. He was fun. Sorry I didn't reply to your trouting right away. I was swimming my little tail off trying to keep up with things. I'm still getting used to playing a couple more tables than I've been used to. There's always a point where the decision points synchronize for a few hectic minutes.

Anyway, thanks for stopping by. Care to take a stab at how you'd have played it knowing what you do about everyone involved?

[Meraxes]

I think I would have played it the same way. There's a chance that I might be going for a check-raise on the turn, and CO plays every hand, so you aren't as worried about giving a free overcard to him since he isn't all that likely to have paint in his hand. Once he bets the turn and I fold, you may as well just call down. You're aren't going to scare him off a better hand by raising or leading out, and the pot is big enough to make him show you his probable rags.

[detruncate]

Thanks to everyone for your replies. This might seem like a simple hand, but this sort of flop/turn decision constantly makes me wonder if I'm even approaching the problem correctly.

I think I should have 3-bet the flop. How likely is a 2+2er to cap as a semi-bluff or for a free card when they've got another 2+2er 3-betting into them after getting 3-bet themselves pf? I'd have to say "not very" if they think anything like I do.

"How do you like the flop?"

"I like it very much, thanks."

"Not as much as I do."

Villain might cap things that at least beat 10s at this point, but I can't seem them doing it as a default play with anything that doesn't.

So... I might be up against a bigger pair, but the danger of this is probably mitigated somewhat by the open-raise/3-bet pf action. If I'm capped, I can comfortably muck unimproved on the turn. A 3-bet seems like a viable option.

Another possible line is the stop and go. I've been tossing around the idea of using this more often to counter the free card play. The paired board makes me think it might be even more effective in this situation. Having a passenger complicates things, but given his general lack of aggression, it's probably safe to fold to a raise on the turn as some of you suggested.

On the whole, I don't hate my line, but I think I should have fired off another round somewhere before dropping into check/call mode. I love this game. Always something to think about.