Top Pair/Flush Draw

[Ajax410]

Played correctly?

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is BB with T/images/graemlins/club.gif, 4/images/graemlins/club.gif.
UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, MP1 calls, MP2 folds, MP3 calls, CO calls, Button folds, SB folds, Hero checks.

Flop: (4.50 SB) 5/images/graemlins/club.gif, 8/images/graemlins/club.gif, T/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(4 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP1 calls, MP3 calls, CO folds.

Turn: (3.75 BB) 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP1 calls, MP3 calls.

River: (6.75 BB) K/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP1 folds, MP3 calls.

Final Pot: 8.75 BB
<font color="green">Main Pot: 8.75 BB, between MP3 and Hero.</font>

[OrianasDaad]

I'm still pretty new at this, so I'll take a crack at it, just be forewarned, I'm no expert.

Interesting hand, after looking at it for awhile, and zenning the possibilites. Spread board, with no straights or flushes at the end, so you're looking at pairs or trips. Trips are quickly discounted, since it's unwise to allow others to draw them out with a pocket pair. I may have called with pocket 5's or 8's from late-middle position, but I would have definately raised into that board, if I could put my opponents on any type of draw. Your semi-bluff on the flop and turn was a tad risky, however, but it did force hands that may have outdrawn you out of the pot. Aggressive = good. You also may discount two-pair hands post-flop, after your bet, since two-pair would also likely have raised you, and hands like T5 and 58 are just garbage, and who would play these, even from middle-late position. (I know, too many people do.)

The river is another matter. You missed your draw, along with anyone else. Your opponent has been calling you all the way, and probably has you on trips, while he was probably on a similar flush draw (8xc or 5xc), or on a straight draw (64, 76, 79, J9). If you opponent is reasonably tight, you can probably put him on J9 or one of the flush draws, mabye 76 if it is suited, since I know those hands are recommended for low-limit play. Of those flush draws, any with a K in them will beat you at showdown.
Any other hand with a K in them did not have the odds to call you, so it was a -EV play anyhow. Now you have to figure the odds of him holding Kxc, while 4 clubs are out. (Note: this is if he's tight, and plays somewhat correctly.) Here's what I got:

Kc = 1-44 (specifically the King of clubs)
Xc = 8-36 (any other club)
odds = 8-1584 or 1-198 against holding Kxc.

My math may be wrong, but I still think the odds of him holding Kxc is rather low, mathematically, but still a possibility.

I think that if your opponent was holding a king, and caught you on the end with a higher pair, then it was luck, unless he was holding K8c or K5c. We all know what happens to players who rely on luck.

All this being said, you were probably correct to bet on the river, and only a good player who knows your style would be able to re-raise any of your semi-bluffs as a defense, to which you would likely have had to fold. My only gripe might be that you did not stand a reasonable chance to improve to the best hand if you hit your flush. I could take a crack at the math, but my instincts tell me that not many tight people are going to call from middle position with a 9-high suited hand or worse. I beleive the odds that someone had a higher flush draw were 1-44, and 1-49.5 that it was a lower flush draw.

Now, should you have checked or bet on the river? It all depends on the opponent. A bet is correct into someone who calls with more hands than he bets, as long as you've established this player as routinely holding underdog hands at the river. If his hands are usually pretty good at the river, then check and call. If your opponent usually only bets with great hands at the end, then check and fold.

Of course, this assumes a tight-passive player. Against a calling station, you probably took down the pot with him holding something like A2 or A5, probably not suited.

After all this speculation, I would say your opponent had something like A8c, and called you with the small pair-top kicker at the end, where he lost the pot.

Oh, if I screwed up anywhere, let me know.

[OrianasDaad]

Der, he can't hold K5c or K8c, since the 8c and 5c are on the board. My mistake.

[flexus]

I like the river valuebet.

f

[bisonbison]

nice hand.

[bisonbison]

I'm still pretty new at this, so I'll take a crack at it, just be forewarned, I'm no expert.

O, you're going to want to put a little less thought into your game.

On the flop, hero has top pair bad kicker and a flush draw. He is likely in the lead and has a ton of outs to improve if he is not. He bets to build a pot that he will win a huge percentage of the time.

On the turn: that card changes nothing. No one else has shown aggression, it is likely he still has the best hand and he still has that flush and two pair draw if he does not. He bets to build a pot that he will win a large percentage of the time.

On the river, hero missed his draw but has been given no reason to think his hand is not good. He bets because loose opponents will call often enough with worse hands.