Has Kerry peaked?

[El Barto]

It is hard to believe that Bush can screw up much more than he did in last week's debate, so how does Kerry improve on his nationwide tie?

On the other hand, if Bush does better tonight (not great, just better) won't he pick up in the polls?

What needs to happen for Kerry to actually pull ahead? I am stumped in my attempt to think of something. /images/graemlins/confused.gif

The Iowa Market has stabilized again in the past few days:

http://128.255.244.60/graphs/Pres04_WTA.png

[elwoodblues]

[ QUOTE ]
On the other hand, if Bush does better tonight (not great, just better) won't he pick up in the polls?

[/ QUOTE ]

A little bit (very little.) I personally doubt that a Friday night presidential debate is going to gather the audience that will yield any significant change in the polls.

[tanda]

Doesn't need a big audience to have a big effect.

The key is the post-debate coverage. I know people who saw neither debate this year who are well aware that Bush was awful and Edwards was slapped around.

Also, the post-debate coverage will be the big news over the weekend. That helped Kerry last week as there was no opportunity to break the news cycle over the weekend.

With the jobs number below expectations (objectively an ok number plus last year revised up significantly, but those facts don't matter as the headlines will all include "lower than expected"), Bush must win tonite or Kerry will rip this race wide open and kick clear ... probably for good.

Bush must break this cycle or Kerry's momentum will carry him to a real lead by the middle of next week.

[lu_hawk]

the jobs report has kerry moving up again by a couple points.

[Matty]

[ QUOTE ]
the jobs report has kerry moving up again by a couple points.

[/ QUOTE ]Also, if the Afghanistan elections don't go well, or if oil prices continue to rise ...

http://www.pollkatz.homestead.com/files/NEWBUSHINDEX_28670_image001.gif

[tanda]

Jobs number decent enough that a good performance tonight will overcome it. But the jobs number will add to any gain Kerry gets from a good performance.

[lu_hawk]

big swing today. was 60-40 in favor of bush this morning. now is 55-45.