PLO: 2 pair wired

PLO 2&5. I'm in the BB w/ TTs99s & $1400. Call; Goose w/ $400 calls; call call; stud player w/ $400 Makes it $20; and it's folded to me. I know with over 95% certainy that Stud has AA and at least a suit to raise btf in omaha. I also know that he thinks AA is a through ticket.


I call; call; Goose leans back in his chair and tries to survey the table out of the corners of his eyes without moving his head. He makes it $50 and I'm over 80% certain he has AA, but it doesn't have to be coordinated. Fold; fold; Stud makes it $100 and I know that Stud and Goose are going to get it all in before the flop. I am certain that they have each other's aces to the point that I'm willing to bet on it.


I reason (at the table) that I am not the favorite here, but I am much better than 2:1 dog. I've got five shots at four outs for a set, there's a tiny chance that my flush draw might be good. If there's a high straight, it will need one of my T's. With Ray Zee's admonition that -if you only bet with the nuts you won't get paid- planted firmly in my heart, I call, and, sure enough, we get it all in before the flop.


I miss, they split it. I like my call. Does any one else like it?


I don't think that correctly putting a couple of players on AA is an uncommon occurance in PLO. This is the first time I've done it when I had a fighting hand. Does anyone have similar experiences?

I like your read and reasoning, but I don't like your call at all. Deciding to go to the mat against two player who you are pretty sure both have aces can be a solid play, but not with big underpairs. What would worry me is that you had so many callers initially. What do you think they all had? Well, most likely they were holding parts of your hand or bigger pairs. I like your play a lot better if your hand is 5-6-7-8. At least then your cards are live.


Craig H.

The main value of a hand against a known AA (or better against 2 known AA) is a draw to ... a double pair. Of course the additionnal draws (straight and flush) help a lot.

So you have to precisely avoid every A, every pair and every high card in your hand (generally the raise and reraise preflop are made with AA with connectors to the A).

Perhaps you remembered the hand in the Ciaffone/Reuben book where a 9944 called all-in several other players and won a huge pot unimproved; but AA won the main pot and he was very lucky to win the (big) side pot against overcards.

You are almost exactly 2 to 1 against to make trips with 2 pair, all else being equal. Adding in the dead money in the pot by the time it became clear that they both had aces (not much, but some), and your straight and flush chances (but the latter cannot be relied on much), and you were getting about the right price, EXCEPT that trips might not win, and that I would say there is a very good chance that a hand with AA which a sound player is willing to go all in with is likely also to contain one of your Ts.


So I would say it is a rather marginal call. It's certainly not very wrong, and it will have given you a gambling image.


I would also say that in some PLO games people will get all their money in with AA and two trash cards. If so, both your flush draws might be live, which I believe adds something like 8% to your chances of winning. In that case, you MIGHT only be 3:2 against winning, which would be very nice. From the sound of it, you thought that one of the players had at least one suited ace, and the other player's suitedness was basically random. So say maybe there were two suited aces out there; there was a decent chance one of your flushes was "live", but you would have to be very lucky for both of them to be.


Oh no!! Not again!

What would worry me is that you had so many callers initially.


I should have mentioned that the others initial calls before the flop only meant they had received all four cards. I was confident that only three of us would remain.

You are almost exactly 2 to 1 against to make trips with 2 pair, all else being equal.


This may be where I go wrong. I figured if Iknew where 4 aces were, plus the four cards in my hand leaving 44 unknowns, then I had slighly better than 5 * 4/44, or 10/11 dog to hit a set.


It's certainly not very wrong, and it will have given you a gambling image.


This is what I was really going for. Omaha, for some reason, turns me into a passive player. Notice how I just call Stud's raise when I know they are going all in. I can't think of another poker game where I do as much calling as I do in PLO.

Question: What are you hoping to flop (aside from quads or fullhouse), that you are going to be able to bet. If the flop comes two of your suit and you get raised, you may be drawing dead to a bigger flush. If you flop a set, someone may have a higher set or a high straight draw.


I would play your hand in a looseygoosey low limit game where 6-8 players see the flop every time. Otherwise, I don't really see the value.


Tim

The money was all in before the flop. I was hoping to flop a set with the AA's cut off.

So what is the best hand to have if u know 2 others have AA each??

It may depend on the flush draws of your opponents, but I calculate that a call is probably correct, but close. Your set probability is about 39.4%. Your T9 for straights adds some equity, and any flush draws of your opponents subtract some. If you think that you may be wrong about either both of them having AA or both of them being willing to go to the middle, then that's another story.


Does anyone have software to run Omaha hands against each other? Can anyone tell me how I can get access to such software? I'd also be curious to hear how AAxx, AAxx, T987 turn out. (I expect not nearly as well as TT99, but I don't know for sure).


Thanks in advance if you can help.

Is this math correct? I came up with a different answer, but it's late and I did it long hand. Assuming 4 aces gone, odds of hitting set by river should be 4X39X38X37X36X5/44X43X42X41X40. I came up with 30.3% chance of a set by river, or 3:7 dog; suggesting call may be slightly incorrect unless considerable dead money. Seems to me you'd rather not have them both all in so that if you hit a set, you could punish them; or if board looked scary, you could steal. Just my $.02