Logic Question

[Mason Malmuth]

Hi Everyone:

I spent the weekend in Santa Monica with Dan Harrington and Bill Robertie working on the manuscript of the new book. In the evening we took a dinner break and walked down the street looking for a restraurant. One of the first places we passed had a sign up that said something like "Rated one of the top five buffets in the world."

Obviously that's pretty good. But the question is of the top five, which number is it?

Best wishes,
Mason

[Piz0wn0reD!!!!!!]

Well, prolly #5.

Otherwise it would say "#1" or "top 3"

[slickpoppa]

I don't see how this is a logical question, but i would guess that the number is 5. If they were, say, the third best buffet in the world, it would advertise itself as "Rated one of the top three buffets in the world." If it were ranked any better than five, it wouldn't want to shortchange itself by saying that it is among the top 5.

[Piz0wn0reD!!!!!!]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't see how this is a logical question, but i would guess that the number is 5. If they were, say, the third best buffet in the world, it would advertise itself as "Rated one of the top three buffets in the world." If it were ranked any better than five, it wouldn't want to shortchange itself by saying that it is among the top 5.

[/ QUOTE ]

I just said exactly that in many less key strokes.

BTW I used very simple logic to figure this out.

[slickpoppa]

You go girl!

[Piz0wn0reD!!!!!!]

waPOWN!

[mmbt0ne]

I think it could just as easily be #4. We tend to like top 10s 5s and 3s, so saying top 4 not only would look weird, but would give away the ranking as well. Obviously 1-3 are out of the question, but I don't see a reason to dismiss 4 so quickly.

[Piz0wn0reD!!!!!!]

[ QUOTE ]
I think it could just as easily be #4. We tend to like top 10s 5s and 3s, so saying top 4 not only would look weird, but would give away the ranking as well. Obviously 1-3 are out of the question, but I don't see a reason to dismiss 4 so quickly.

[/ QUOTE ]
Very good point. So it can be 1, 3, or 5. If it were #1 it would say, so its either 3 or 5.
Top 3 is kinda weird sounding so id put my money on #5.

I wonder what mason has to say, this post is weirder than some of sklanskys.

[RocketManJames]

While I think in terms of logic, it has to be #4 or #5, I believe that there is definitely a possibility that this buffet was rated in the top 5 in an unranked "best 5" list.

What comes to mind is the list of "Great Steakhouses" that seems to be in every airline magazine... the one that includes Gene and Giorgetti's and Rainwater on Kettner's. It's some unranked list of "best" restaurants.

-RMJ

[RiverTheNuts]

I think that the same person doesn't go and eat at every buffet in the world, so you can't really distinguish between the top 1, 2, hell, probably 200 restaurants in the world, different strokes for different folks.

However, if this "rating" scale they use is absolute and foolproof, I would say that it could be 4 or 5

[well]

It not only stated that it's rated amongst the top five,
It's rated ONE of the top five!

So... one.

[BarronVangorToth]

[ QUOTE ]
Hi Everyone:

I spent the weekend in Santa Monica with Dan Harrington and Bill Robertie working on the manuscript of the new book. In the evening we took a dinner break and walked down the street looking for a restraurant. One of the first places we passed had a sign up that said something like "Rated one of the top five buffets in the world."

Obviously that's pretty good. But the question is of the top five, which number is it?

Best wishes,
Mason

[/ QUOTE ]

It's obviously #5 (perhaps #4) for the reasons detailed above. My point, however, is that this whole question would be SO much funnier if just a single word was changed:


[ QUOTE ]
Hi Everyone:

I spent the weekend in Santa Monica with Dan Harrington and Bill Robertie working on the manuscript of the new book. In the evening we took a dinner break and walked down the street looking for hookers. One of the first places we passed had a sign up that said something like "Rated one of the top five buffets in the world."

Obviously that's pretty good. But the question is of the top five, which number is it?

Best wishes,
Mason

[/ QUOTE ]


Barron Vangor Toth
www.BarronVangorToth.com (http://www.BarronVangorToth.com)

[MicroBob]

To be honest, I thought the chicken was a little bit dry and I DEFINITELY thought the vegetables could have been fresher.

I really enjoyed their smashed potatoes though.
And the ice-cream bar is an absolute DREAM.
The sweet-tea wasn't sweet enough for my tastes.
I was extremely disappointed that the Taco-Bar is only on Tuesdays and Thursdays.

[fnord_too]

I would like to know what rating body has eaten at all the buffets in the world, or even in all the top rated buffets that every other rating body rates. (Early morning sentenses are always the best!)

[BarronVangorToth]

[ QUOTE ]
I would like to know what rating body has eaten at all the buffets in the world,

[/ QUOTE ]


This gets even funnier thinking about Hooker Buffets.

Barron Vangor Toth
www.BarronVangorToth.com (http://www.BarronVangorToth.com)

[Big Bend]

[ QUOTE ]

I spent the weekend in Santa Monica with Dan Harrington and Bill Robertie

[/ QUOTE ]

Bill Robertie the famous backgammon player/author? He's into poker now too? What's he writing about?

I'm seeing alot of crossover from the backgammon world to the poker world. Very similar games actually.

[scalf]

/images/graemlins/smile.gif /images/graemlins/diamond.gif duuuuhhh;

5th of course

you show your inexperience in marketing

lol

gl

/images/graemlins/smile.gif /images/graemlins/club.gif

[kmvenne]

4.5 +/- 0.5 /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[FrankLu99]

are u talking about the lighthouse buffet?

i heard that the food was just decent. the kicker was that the lunch buffet is $12 which is hecka-cheap for a sushi and seafood buffet.

[AJo Go All In]

obviously you are looking for #5, but

your question cannot really be answered. we could say it is most likely that it is rated fifth, but it could also be the case, for instance, that the raters just listed the top 5 in no particular order, or that it was among 5 who all tied for the "perfect score", or that it was really 4th but the advertisers thought top 4 sounded weird, etc.

[Yobz]

3 +/- 2

[garyc8]

If they were #1 they would say so. If they were #2 or #3 they would say "top 3" (noone would even implicitly admit to being #2). But if they are #4 they would still say "top 5" since saying "top 4" screams "we're number 4".

Q.E.D.

[bigpooch]

Is it even in the top five? Didn't seem very impressive,
did it? After all, you passed by!

[Cerril]

I'd say 4th or 5th, unless it was like an official sticker or something by a group that said 'here are the top 5 in no order'.

The reason being, people expect 1,3,5 but not 2,4. So if we had 4th best, we couldn't say '4th best', and we couldn't really say 'top 4' because to most people that means '4th best'. On the other hand, if we say 'top 5' then it leaves something open to doubt because 5 is a standard number for rating.

Now if it were 2-3 then it would be 'top 3', and best is of course the best.

[Mason Malmuth]

Hi pooch:

Dan stated that there were at least five buffets in Las Vegas that are better.

Best wishes,
Mason

[Mason Malmuth]

Hi BB:

Bil and Dan are writing Harrington on Hold 'em: Expert Strategy for No Limit Tournaments; Volume I: Strategic Play. Volume I is on the early and middle stages of tournaments, and Volume II will be on the end play of tournaments.

best wishes,
Mason

[Steve Giufre]

Five, man.

[Kenrick]

If this is a logic question, then logic dictates this thread is more than anything merely an ad for the upcoming 2+2 book.

[shooter]

It would have to be the fifth rated buffet. If it were second, it would say "one to the top two..." If it were worse than 5th it might say, "one of the top buffets...."

Rule one don't cut on Superman's cape. Two don't eat at a place called "Moms," (Or "One of the top five...")

[VoicesSaidSo]

#1?

Rated /one/ of the top five. Just goofy grammar?

[thylacine]

First, I'll assume that this isn't actually a logic question since it is posted in the probability forum. I'll also assume that claims of this type are always true, and also that there are no ties in the international buffet rankings. Furthermore, I will assume that all buffets in the world post a truthful sign outside saying, for some positive integer j, that they are rated one the top j buffets in the world. This will imply with certainty that they are in fact rated exactly i^th in the world for some positive integer i that is less than or equal to j.

Now for the detailed calculation. For positive integers i and j, suppose that P(i,j) is the probability that a buffet that is actually rated exactly i^th in the world, will post a sign outside saying that they rated one the top j buffets in the world. So of course P(i,j)=0 whenever j is less than i, and

\Sum_{j=i}^{\infty} P(i,j)=1.

Then the probability that a buffet claiming to be rated one the top j buffets in the world, is actually rated exactly i^th in the world is

P(i,j)/ [ \Sum_{k=1}^{j} P(k,j) ].

I may have intentionally made a mistake in what I just wrote. I'm not sure. You guys don't need to be going to buffets anyway.

[Mason Malmuth]

2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif + 2/images/graemlins/club.gif = 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif

MM

[kleraudio]

was that a joke mr. malmuth. an advertisement for the books comin out perhaps? or are you serious?

Jim /images/graemlins/spade.gif

[submariner]

#5. Otherwise they would have said one of the top 4, top 3, etc.

[Trix]

top4 sounds lame, same with top2. So it´s either number 2,4 or 5.

[Warren Whitmore]

I am going to go with 8500th. Its a big world after all with a lot of buffet's in it. I may not be right but I have got to be closer than 5.

"Its better to be vaguly right than precisly wrong"
John Maynard Keynes

[AngryCola]

Hi Mason,

That is just plain sick! /images/graemlins/grin.gif /images/graemlins/spade.gif

[flair1239]

It is rated 5th. If it had been rated higher, then they would have said something like: "Rated one of the top 3".

[elwoodblues]

It has to be 5 or 4. You wouldn't say "one of the top 4," just doesn't have a ring to it. 3 or 2 would be in the "top 3" (you wouldn't say 2nd best buffet) and 1 would be "the number 1 buffet."

[Beerfund]

Never have I ever seen a thread with more of the same exact answers before.......uhhhh it has to be 4 or 5 because they wouldnt say we're 1 of 5 if they were #3 blahblahblahhhhhhhh /images/graemlins/mad.gif

[AngryCola]

[ QUOTE ]
Never have I ever seen a thread with more of the same exact answers before.......uhhhh it has to be 4 or 5 because they wouldnt say we're 1 of 5 if they were #3 blahblahblahhhhhhhh /images/graemlins/mad.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah I agree, it's pretty bad. /images/graemlins/smirk.gif /images/graemlins/spade.gif

[r3vbr]

[ QUOTE ]
"Rated one of the top five buffets in the world."

Obviously that's pretty good. But the question is of the top five, which number is it?


[/ QUOTE ]

Rated one of the top five buffets in the world... It's saying it's rated first out of the top five hehe :P

[AngryCola]

[ QUOTE ]
Rated one of the top five buffets in the world... It's saying it's rated first out of the top five hehe :P

[/ QUOTE ]

Read Mason's answer.

I must say, the type of responses he continues to get are very funny. /images/graemlins/spade.gif

[Token]

Those who say the answer is 4 or 5 are assuming that only one ranking event determined the restaurant's quality. There could have easily been two such events in which the restaurant placed 1st in one and 5th in the another. If this is the case, the sign illustrates a consensus opinion of its quality.

[timmer]

I the statement is indeed true it was rated number one *in* the top five buffets. However if the above premis is not a true statment than the advetisement is a fallacy of ambiguity or presumption.

However if it was indeed # 1 they would plainly state " Rated # one buffett in the world" as there is no need to include any others including # 50 or #5000.. Likewise if it was Number 3 no need to include 4 or 5 if individual ratings were givin. However if ratings 1-5 were given as a block then it could be truly rated as one of the top 5 buffetts in the world . In this case any buffett in that group could claim to be #1 or equal to #1 which in my mind is #1

So it is very likely it is at best #5

As an aside I would think it is highly doubtfull that it was even close to #5 as far as buffetts go.

timmer

[Piz0wn0reD!!!!!!]

[ QUOTE ]
2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif + 2/images/graemlins/club.gif = 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif

MM

[/ QUOTE ]


go read 1984 for the REAL answer.

[PuckNPoker]

[ QUOTE ]

Obviously that's pretty good. But the question is of the top five, which number is it?

Best wishes,
Mason

[/ QUOTE ]

None! They are bluffing! /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[lorinda]

I'd go for number 4.

They must get people all the time saying "You're number five aren't you?" and to be able to respond "No, we're number four" creates a feeling of honesty.

My actual guess is that it's ranked #434211 and they are lying however because if it really was one of the top five, other people would do the advertising for them to get more people into the area.

Lori