SB Cold Call Problem

[StellarWind]

Party 2/4. Hero is SB with K9s.

Three limpers, fairly aggressive MP2 raises, all fold, Hero calls, ...

[bisonbison]

I don't think it's terrible, but I'd like a couple more limpers/callers before I do this. I know I'd call with KJs here. I'm not sure about KTs.

This isn't a situation I've put a lot of thought into.

[zram21]

Is fairly aggressive the only read we have? Any ideas on what his/her raising standards are?

[zram21]

FWIW against a reasonable player I think I muck this from the SB. Like Bison said KJs would be a call and I am not certain what I would do with KTs.

If the raiser was known to get out of line a bit I would likely call this.

[Talex]

I think it depends a lot on table texture. If the limpers are all over the place loose then I think this is probably ok, mainly because the nine has just enough high card value to make me happy if it hits. If they're loose limpers who limp mainly offsuit broadways and Ax when they get out of line I like it less since I'm much more likely dominated or facing an A redraw if my flush comes.

-Tim

[thirddan]

I think K9s is really too weak of a hand to coldcall here, even with the limpers, i would like to have something more along the lines of KJ/KQs (if i even call then)...

[J.R.]

Me too.

You are immediately getting 3-13 with a likely 3- 19 or 21 (I don't think limp-reraising is common at 2-4 and the BB may come along). The raiser is fairly aggressive, so the risk of domination is less so than otherwise, and you have a decent multiway hand in a multiway pot, a favorable .5 small blind structure and will play well postflop. What I really like is your relative position, from which you can bet into the field with a flush draw (or other big hand) and hopefully ram and jam for value if/when the aggressive preflop raiser pops you back, and when the flop comes K (or 9) high, be in good position to check-raise the aggressive preflop raiser's frequent/likely flop bet (which often won't be a better hand than your pair of Kings) and confront the field with roughly 6.5-1 odds.

[sublime]

SW-

I call here. You have a hand that will win about 20% of the time(I hope Josh doesnt see this /images/graemlins/tongue.gif) against the range of hands this field has, and are getting 6.5-1 (around there?) odds. Add in your post flop edge and this call is profitable.

[J.R.]

You have a hand that will win about 20% of the time(I hope Josh doesnt see this )

Don't sweat it, I'll just repeat what you said and then Josh will agree with me /images/graemlins/laugh.gif.

[sublime]

Don't sweat it, I'll just repeat what you said and then Josh will agree with me

Sad but true /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[PokerNoob]

Yes, I think "table texture" is the most important consideration here, meaning "will they pay you off when you hit top pair or better yet the flush"? I don't really fear the higher flush from Ax, it just seems rare to me. The thing I worry about is a final board like [QJx T x] which I pour a lot of money in. Or I have to call down a K high board. Ooops, he really did have AK.

[Talex]

[ QUOTE ]
Yes, I think "table texture" is the most important consideration here, meaning "will they pay you off when you hit top pair or better yet the flush"?

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed.

[ QUOTE ]
I don't really fear the higher flush from Ax, it just seems rare to me. The thing I worry about is a final board like [QJx T x] which I pour a lot of money in. Or I have to call down a K high board. Ooops, he really did have AK.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't necesarily 'fear' the redraw from Ax, but I think that it's significant in determining the initial call because of how much you'll pay if it's out there. It's much less worrisome than the idea that you're dominated with AK, or a limping KQ or some such.

[J.R.]

"Yes, I think "table texture" is the most important consideration here, meaning "will they pay you off when you hit top pair..?"

How big is the pot (or how big will it be on the flop)? When you flop top pair in a pot of this size, is you goal to win it now and get people to fold, or to try to keep them aorund to "pay you off"?

I don't really fear the higher flush from Ax, it just seems rare to me.

It doesn't just seem, it is.

[Talex]

[ QUOTE ]
How big is the pot (or how big will it be on the flop)? When you flop top pair in a pot of this size, is you goal to win it now and get people to fold, or to try to keep them aorund to "pay you off"?

[/ QUOTE ]

Fair enough.

[ QUOTE ]

It doesn't just seem, it is.

[/ QUOTE ]

So it just isn't a factor at all? It's rare, but it's going to be awfully costly when it happens. Most of your money from this hand is made from the flush right?

-Tim

[PokerNoob]

[ QUOTE ]


It doesn't just seem, it is.

[/ QUOTE ]

A funny thing happened to me last night. 2/4 full ring. I get a suited jack in the SB. Limpers galore, I complete. Flop comes down all my suit, I bet, get one EP caller. Turn is offsuit, may have been a high card. I bet, call. River is offsuit, unmemorable, no str8, no boat possible. I bet, he raises, I call. He's got the KQ. He left... lessee... I 3-bet flop, checkraise, call the 3-bet turn.... I just don't believe in flush over flush, but I knew he was slowplaying it the minute he raised the river.

[sublime]

Yes, I think "table texture" is the most important consideration here, meaning "will they pay you off when you hit top pair or better yet the flush"? I don't really fear the higher flush from Ax, it just seems rare to me. The thing I worry about is a final board like [QJx T x] which I pour a lot of money in. Or I have to call down a K high board. Ooops, he really did have AK.

Table texture = 3 limps and a raise before the action gets to the button. I would say its favorable.'

Calling down with second pair = Always an issue. The money you make when you flop two pair or a flush draw (and hit) will more than make up for this.

The most (well close to the top) important consideration in a suituation like this is what the pot is laying you relative to what you are putting in and how often you expect to win. You have an overlay here and add to that your post flop edge and your relative position, make this call +EV.

[J.R.]

'So it just isn't a factor at all? It's rare, but it's going to be awfully costly when it happens. Most of your money from this hand is made from the flush right?"

So anytime there are 4 people who have put money into the pot you should fold Kxs because of the risk that Axs is out there?

It is costly when you are up against a bigger flush, but holding Kxs, I like you chances of being on the right side of the situation. Fearing flush over flush before the flop is getting a bit ahead of yourself and is really weak tight, IMO, especially with the K. It just doesn't happen that often.

[Talex]

[ QUOTE ]
The most (well close to the top) important consideration in a suituation like this is what the pot is laying you relative to what you are putting in and how often you expect to win. You have an overlay here and add to that your post flop edge and your relative position, make this call +EV.

[/ QUOTE ]

So how'd you figure your 20% number? I have no idea how to make that kind of an evaluation, which makes figuring these decisions pretty tough.

-Tim

[PokerNoob]

I guess what I mean by texture is this: Flop comes K Q 7 rainbow. You bet. All fold. Is that enough reward for the risk? Now if the Q and the 7 call down their 5 outers and the A hangs in trying to catch, and some guy with a 65 pays the flop to catch his runner runner....

[Talex]

[ QUOTE ]
So anytime there are 4 people who have put money into the pot you should fold Kxs because of the risk that Axs is out there?

[/ QUOTE ]

Obviously not. Mostly when I was talking about table texture I was referring to being dominated by the limpers, which was originally why I thought knowing whether they limped all kinds of crap or specifically got out of line with stuff that you don't want in against you. The flush redraw or Axs problem is an added ugly thing that I want to consider when making a cold call that seems like it could be marginal, otherwise I feel like I'm overvaluing the flush.

[ QUOTE ]

It is costly when you are up against a bigger flush, but holding Kxs, I like you chances of being on the right side of the situation. Fearing flush over flush before the flop is getting a bit ahead of yourself and is really weak tight, IMO, especially with the K. It just doesn't happen that often.

[/ QUOTE ]

So is the hand good enough to call on pure flush potential? Is Kxs good enough?

-Tim

[sublime]

I guess what I mean by texture is this: Flop comes K Q 7 rainbow. You bet. All fold. Is that enough reward for the risk?

I doubt this will ever happen, but if it did.......

Lets see, you put in 1.5 SB's to win 8-10 SB's......... /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[sublime]

So how'd you figure your 20% number? I have no idea how to make that kind of an evaluation, which makes figuring these decisions pretty tough.

Pokerstove (http://www.pokerstove.com/)

I like the stove, PM me if you need help with it.

or:

2dime (http://www.twodimes.net/)

Easier to use, but not as helpfull.

[PokerNoob]

Say it does happen some small percentage of the time, yet some larger percentage of the time you get raised somewhere along the way and find out you're outkicked. Eh, my math is horrible to try to figure this out, but I know I want scenario two to happen (loose cally table) so I win more on average when I do win to make up for the times I get my azz handed to me. Also getting outdrawn on the loose cally table really makes my kicker meaningless, so it (the percent of time I'm winning but am outdrawn) really shouldn't enter into the go/nogo decision.

[J.R.]

"So is the hand good enough to call on pure flush potential? Is Kxs good enough?"


Something to chew on (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Board=probability&Number=905554& Forum=f11&Words=%2Bsuited%20%2Bcards&Searchpage=0& Limit=100&Main=905127&Search=true&where=bodysub&Na me=&daterange=1&newerval=1&newertype=y&olderval=&o ldertype=&bodyprev=#Post905554)

[EvanJC]

seems like a pretty easy fold to me

[bernie]

Since you have some people in between you and the raiser to help trap/payoff if you flop a draw it might be closer.

But not close enough for me. I still fold this.

b

[bernie]

[ QUOTE ]
from which you can bet into the field with a flush draw (or other big hand) and hopefully ram and jam for value if/when the aggressive preflop raiser pops you back

[/ QUOTE ]

Im not sure i'd be 3 betting the raiser's raise here with my flush draw. I will figure im behind and want some others to come in behind me and not shut them out. This is also board dependent.

b

[J.R.]

I know, my point was you are in a good position to both get multiple bets in on the flop with a big hand and to also protect (somewhat) a vulnerable flopped top pair.

I don't want to digress to much, but I think there are spots where people play too passively with a draw for fear of folding people (especially in big pots), but that's another issue.

[chesspain]

Blech.

[StellarWind]

[ QUOTE ]
Im not sure i'd be 3 betting the raiser's raise here with my flush draw. I will figure im behind and want some others to come in behind me and not shut them out. This is also board dependent.

[/ QUOTE ]
Funny coincidence.

Yesterday I has QJs in SB with this exact layout: 3 limpers, LP PFR, and me. I had a flush draw on a small paired flop. I bet, call, call, call, PFR raises, I 3-bet (greedy), fold, fold, fold, call. Oops, looks like I hit them too hard /images/graemlins/blush.gif. Maybe I should think about the flop texture next time.

Then I realized this was not a bad thing. If he has overcards the pot is mine. All I have to do is keep betting.

I'd like to say this story had a happy ending, but he called me down with cowboys. I'd managed to lose the absolute maximum possible on the hand.

[StellarWind]

BB bailed and the rest called.

I flopped a flush draw, overcard king, and a backdoor straight draw.

One of the limpers flopped top two pair and went to war with PFR's QQ overpair. Another limper called everything with pocket third pair. The flush on the river pulled down a 21.5 BB pot.

Thanks for your replies. I think this decision is close.

[Entity]

I've been wondering this a lot recently (had a similar hand with KTs that I coldcalled, knowing I'd get the BB and 3 limpers to come along), and despite the results of the hand (I dragged a HUGE pot), I was wondering what I should've done preflop.

Looks like a similar case. Nice hand.

Rob

[Talex]

Ok, so I did a little pokerstoving and here's what I came up with:

1,262,969 games 72.092 secs 17,518 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 15.9519 % [ 00.15 00.01 ] { AA-22, AKs-A2s, KQs-K2s, QJs-Q8s, JTs-J8s, T9s-T8s, 98s, 87s, AKo-A2o, KQo-KTo, QJo-QTo, JTo }
Hand 2: 15.2083 % [ 00.14 00.01 ] { AA-22, AKs-A2s, KQs-K2s, QJs-Q8s, JTs-J8s, T9s-T8s, 98s, 87s, AKo-A2o, KQo-K9o, QJo-Q9o, JTo-J9o, T9o }
Hand 3: 15.9135 % [ 00.15 00.01 ] { AA-22, AKs-A2s, KQs-K2s, QJs-Q8s, JTs-J8s, T9s-T8s, 98s, 87s, AKo-A2o, KQo-KTo, QJo-QTo, JTo }
Hand 4: 15.7374 % [ 00.15 00.01 ] { AA-22, AKs-A2s, KQs-K2s, QJs-Q8s, JTs-J8s, T9s-T8s, 98s, 87s, AKo-A2o, KQo-K9o, QJo-QTo, JTo }
Hand 5: 21.2933 % [ 00.20 00.01 ] { AA-77, AKs-A9s, KQs-KTs, AKo-ATo, KQo-KJo }
Hand 6: 15.8955 % [ 00.15 00.01 ] { K9s }


I gave the opponents more credit than Sublime did, mainly to test the idea of opponents who get out of line by calling too much with broadway and little suiteds out of position. I came up with about 16% equity. Pot odds say that you've got a call, but I think it's awfully close given the chances of being dominated. If the opponents are really random then I think it's a call.

-Tim

[MRBAA]

I think folding to a raise when in sb with hands like K9s, QTs, A8s, 22-88 in the situation described (2 limpers, raise) will save bets in the long run.

There are multiple problems with calling a raise:

1. you may be crushed/dominated.

2. you will have to play the hand out of position

3. you will often be unable to play aggressively when you hit your big card.

Now, I think completing when there is no raise is a completely different story.

In addition to improving your implied odds, it eliminates #1 and #3 -- I'll complete my sb in an unraised pot with three limpers with hands as weak as Q3s, 22 and T9o.

[StellarWind]

Do you realize that you assumed that BB has a good hand? That's hardly fair to put it mildly.

Most of the time BB has a bad hand. Whether he folds or calls I am way ahead of your simulation.

That said, I have two huge observations to make:

1. Flushes and straights win big pots against large fields. If I come anywhere near winning this pot 15% of the time my profits for calling will be huge. The magic of implied odds at work.

2. These hot-and-cold simulations are virtually completely worthless for evaluating situations like this. They bear almost no relationship to my winning chances in actual play with folding and street-by-street betting. They also completely ignore the object of the game. I want to win money, not pots.

[sublime]

2. These hot-and-cold simulations are virtually completely worthless for evaluating situations like this. They bear almost no relationship to my winning chances in actual play with folding and street-by-street betting. They also completely ignore the object of the game. I want to win money, not pots.

In order to win money you need to win pots /images/graemlins/grin.gif

These "simulations" are not worthless, they are in fact VERY helpfull and are a great way to deterine what you potential EV is against a range (or ranges) of hands.

[StellarWind]

[ QUOTE ]
These "simulations" are not worthless, they are in fact VERY helpfull and are a great way to deterine what you potential EV is against a range (or ranges) of hands.

[/ QUOTE ]
I call.

If these simulations truly have value, you should be able to tell me two things. Feel free to use Six's results or supply your own.

1. What is my approximate real chance of winning this hand? How do you adjust Six's result to compensate for my poor position, the semibluffing potential of my possible flush draw, my unwillingness to pay 2 BB on the turn to draw to a gutshot, my chance to checkraise PFR when I make top pair of nines, and myriad other plus and minus factors that make real poker completely different from the simulation?

2. What is my expected value if everone calls and we see the flop? I have no real idea which is why this thread exists. Having read Six's results, I still have no real idea.

Bonus question: what do the hot-and-cold numbers say about A9o? My instincts tell me that this is probably even better hot-and-cold than K9s. Anyone crazy enough to coldcall A9o?

[sublime]

If these simulations truly have value, you should be able to tell me two things. Feel free to use Six's results or supply your own.

You know I cant answer those questions, as neither can you. What pokerstove can do is give you a general idea as to what you can "expect" to win over a large number of hands. The questions you are asking me are more or less dependant on one skills level, which would of course explain why more skilled players can play more hands profitably than other, less skilled players.

[sublime]

Bonus question: what do the hot-and-cold numbers say about A9o? My instincts tell me that this is probably even better hot-and-cold than K9s. Anyone crazy enough to coldcall A9o?

K9s would do much better "hot and cold" than A9o