Interesting reason to semi-bluff

Interesting hand last night at Foxwoods. 5,5 PL HE, full game. I raise in early position with JTs (I've been raising to 15 almost every hand I play, and that's been at least half the hands; don't ask, it works in some games very well). Kid raises to 50 in middle position, and Limit Man raises to 180 on the button. I know they both have good hands, pairs 99 and up at worst, maybe no worse than JJ, and/or AK and maybe AQs. Kid has 1400, and Limit Man has 4500. I have them both covered.


Flop is rainbow J97. I check, and figure there is very little chance I have the best hand. The Kid checks. That means he does not have a set, or KK. The fact that he didn't re-reraise preflop means he doesn't have AA. He's been here at the table at least 1.5 hours, and I've yet to see him slowplay anything. Limit Man now bets the pot, 560. This is where it gets interesting.


Limit Man cannot have two pair. He could have a set, but it would have to be Jacks, as he wouldn't have made it 180 preflop with 99 or 77. Since I have a J, it is much more likely he has AA-QQ, and some chance he has AKs and is pushing it a bit here since we checked.


This is the cool part. I suddenly realize that if I reraise here, I will win this pot almost 100% of the time (except for that rare time he has JJJ).


The Kid bought in for $200, and it's 2:30 in the morning. One way or another, you know everybody's going to be done playing sometime soon. When I raise, he won't call with QQ, AK, or AQs, the only hands he can have right now (to the best of my ability to know him in 1.5-2 hours). If he had less chips, he'd call with QQ, and maybe AK, but no way does this Kid who's in one of the biggest games of his life, risk losing the $1000+ of profit sitting in front of him.


Similarly, Limit Man didn't really want to play in this game, but his game got short-handed, and me and another guy hounded him into it. He bought in for about $1000, and ran it up to $4000 or so. When I raise his $560 bet to $2000, he knows that he's betting everything if he calls me. I figure the only hand he'll call with here is JJJ, and I'm about 98% sure of that read.


The Kid took 3-4 minutes to think after I raised. Limit Man egged him into hurrying up, which pissed the Kid off quite a bit. Eventually he folded, showing the hand to his friend behind him. By this time, about 7-9 people from other games had gathered around our table to watch. Even after badgering the Kid, Limit Man now took about 5-8 minutes to make up his mind. I was becoming more and more certain he had KK or AA. While he was thinking, pretty much every player from every holdem game in the room came over to sweat the play, at least 30 people, maybe 40. I like this, because I knew that not only was he worried about losing his remaining profit of about $2300, but also losing his $1000 buyin, and finally about losing face by being on the losing end of the pot of the night with a total crowd of 40-50 observers. That would be humiliating for anybody, to some degree.


He folded. I resisted the cries of everybody to show my hand, and grinned while I scooped up the chips.


If it had been 10:30 at night, my raise would have been awful. At 2:30, with these guys clearly not wanting to risk a great night's win, I like it a lot.


Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

Hand reading skills, knowing your opponents, and the use of psychology - a powerful combination. Great play.

Greg,


You are the trickster. First you talk a guy into playing PL. Did you pick this guy to play because he was easy for you to read? Anyway, nice read and play.


Good Luck


Mark

Greg,


Fantastic post. I think that your play on the flop was great. Your reasoninig was excellant.


I would love to hear more about your thinking preflop. Calling $165 cold out of position with J10s is certainly not standard play. Did you do it for the very reasons that transpired, that your opponents could be moved too easily off of their hands?


I would also love to hear you talk more about your strategy of raising to $15 on half of the hands. I have seen others do this with success, but I'm curious as to your thoughts on the strategy. You said that the particularly game made it work, so what was it about that game that made the stragegy good? And what sort of situations was it setting up that you expected to profit from.


Again, great post, and thanks for your thoughts.


-Dan

It works if by doing so, you can control your opponents. If you can tell by their response what they've got.


For example, I soon learned that nobody at this table was ever going to reraise my $15 without a very good hand, probably TT and AQs or better. Well, there was one guy who was tougher, but he was from Britain, and had more pot limit experience than anybody else, probably including me. So, with the JTs, the reason I like the hand is that when I flop a straight, they flop two pair or trips, and I can get them to put all their money in as a significant dog. Similarly, if I flop two pair with a cheesy hand like 75s, they will pay me off big with AA.


When they don't reraise me, I know a lot less about their cards, but I have built the pot enough that we can play for a big pot at the end. And I'm depending upon my ability to make better decisions than them when the pot gets big.


I have often made that $15 or 20 raise, and ended up winning $3000 or more by the end when I make the nuts with a weak starting hand and get paid off. Even though they see me raising half the time, they still can't get away from their QQ when the board is Q9752, and I have 86. And boy, when they bet the pot on the flop, maybe $50 or 60, and I catch that 7 in the gut, it's almost a lock that I can take all of their stack.


That's why I fold a lot more often when the opponent is short-stacked. Not enough implied odds.


Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

Mark, at the time, I was just trying to get the game started. I was trying to talk anybody who would listen into playing.


Funny thing too. We had 7 names on the list, but I knew at least 2 of them were still in the tourney. The floor called the game down. I was disappointed, because I was sure it wouldn't go, and that nobody would even be willling to try next time. Very surprisingly, we immediately got a full game. Total shock to me.


Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

If he had less chips, he'd call with QQ, and maybe AK, but no way does this Kid who's in one of the biggest games of his life, risk losing the $1000+ of profit sitting in front of him.


I liked every thing about your reasoning but the above. I think if the Kid was playing this big for the first time, he'd be more likely to shove it in with a hand (but less likely to recognise a position move). It takes some lost stacks before the Kids I play with learn to fear QQ here. Did he get his 1400 from big pots or a bunch of little ones?

He won it with big ones (for him) initially, i.e., $100-200 of profit in his first few winning hands, and then continued winning small to medium pots thereafter.


The extra bonus reason he can fold is because he has the Limit Man behind him who re-reraised preflop, and who bet the flop after we checked. He is facing a HUGE amount of strength here. Experienced or not, it's a tough call.


Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

LOL.....Congrats!!


Man, it takes dead-on read, upper level thinking and then total confidence in both to pull that one off!!


I think perhaps the big read is the "situational" one....Late at night and putting both players on a predictable mindset...


Good Show!!

And you wonder why I have declined to play pot limit at Foxwoods when I have been there in the past!


Greg, my question is pre-flop. I have no problem with the initial raise. How easy/hard of a choice is it to call the 180? I can see calling when it is re-raised to 50, but 180 seems a bit much. Is it because of the players involved in the hand? If Ray Zee was in the hand would you muck or call?


Ken Poklitar

ohKanada@hotmail.com

A big part of the reason to call preflop was my belief that I could outplay both of these guys, and both of them still had plenty of money relative to the 180. If one of them had just put in half his money, or if one of them had been a very good PL player, I would have folded.


Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)