Early aggression? 72o wild

[rachelwxm]

One play I have been thinking about for a while now, possibly observed a few times maybe at 30+ buying SNGs (don’t try that in 10 SNGs because they are filled with cs) is this:

Let’s say it’s very early stage or the first hand in 30+3 SNGs for simplicity. Blind 10/15. You are in sb w 72o. There are 4 limpers to you. The conventional wisdom is to get away as fast as you can with such hand. But maybe you can do something different today.

You bet the pot! /images/graemlins/blush.gif

Before you send me to mental hospital let me make my last argument. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

From limper’s perspective:
If I limp w AJ (AQ?) or 66-TT alike, I won’t call.
If I have JJ-KK I would raise 5bb myself. Limping is generally not a good idea.
If I have AA (KK?), of course I would reraise back or even all in.

And you know you don’t need to get much more than 50% probability to get everyone fold in order to be profitable even with 72o! Of course I assume you will give up when being reraised.

And this assumes that you are dead if you get called, which is not usually the case in reality since being aggressor certainly gives you some advantage PF.

Now if you think doing this w 72o is terrible, how about doing this w 8s?

Am I being totally off here or I am not aggressive enough to call raise at this level?

Any thoughts from experts?
/images/graemlins/cool.gif

[luvrhino]

Even if that's successful in stealing, you get 85 chips, which, IMO, isn't worth the risk that early. I like maintaining a table image of being a tight-ass early, which makes later bluffs, when the blinds are 50/100 or greater, more effective.

As for having 72o in the SB at 10/15, i complete anyway because it's only 5 more chips. This may be at odds with being a tight-ass, but it's only 5 more chips to get 85 and you never know what you might flop. I don't know what the conventional wisdom on this is, but i figure the odds are pretty good.

[nuclear500]

I am by no means an expert, but this is my perception:

An AK or AQ or even AJ or any pair bigger then 99 will probably NOT fold and will call and you'll have to fold unless you hit the miracle flop, in which case since you're playing on Party it looks like, they will use every four letter word in the english and galactic language because how could you play 72o!??@#

[rachelwxm]

point taken, but I think there is a fine line to call raise too, right? With AK or JJ-AA why not raise yourself? I am not totaly sure if I will call w AQ or AJ (a A flop I am not sure if I am in the lead) or even 99-TT(I don't want to pay price for the set). The fact nobody raise PF means there is less likely someone has those raising hands, right? /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[luvrhino]

A lot of people are Calling Stations, even with kickass hands. Or they might call your raise with 87s. Unless you have played with them a lot and know that they would probably fold, i wouldn't try it.

Just because you would behave logically, doesn't mean that your opponent will do so.

[betgo]

There are a lot of weak players who will limp in and then call a pot sized bet. The first round of a SMG is not a good time to steal.

[rachelwxm]

That's why it would probably never work at 10SNGs, but given the texture of 30+s I am not sure since it gets much tighter now.
at 10SNGs my all in PF push AK will be called by A7-AT and Qs will be called by 77-TT. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Cleveland Guy]

I think the play can work, but as another poster stated, why do it for the 85 chips? It really doesn't get you all that much compared to the risk that is out there. The other thing - you talk about being the aggressor, but you do it out of position.

I know this is a common move from the CO or Button, and the difference being after your raise you can either get the flop checked to you, or raise any bet ahead of you.

If you make this raise from the SB, and get called. Flop comes out K 7 4 r. Now what's your move? If you bet, and get raised, you can't really play back can you? You have 2nd pair, No kicker.

Now you have given up 150-200 chips on 72o. I think this will happen a lot more than the 85 you will win, and conversely will hurt you in the long run more.

[Cleveland Guy]

[ QUOTE ]
That's why it would probably never work at 10SNGs, but given the texture of 30+s I am not sure since it gets much tighter now.
at 10SNGs my all in PF push AK will be called by A7-AT and Qs will be called by 77-TT. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

I've played 5 and 10 SnG's that are very tight, and 20 and 30's that are very loose passive. I think this is what makes it bad in the first round. I agree in general a 30 is tighter than a 5, but it's not always the case.

You don't know the table's image yet, it only takes 1 or 2 loose fish out of the 10 to change the image of the table. and I don't think you have identified them yet.

[The Yugoslavian]

Isn't this a pretty small range of hands? If those are the only hands that call I'd say raising in the SB with 72o has to be +CEV.

The problem I would have with raising with 72o (although I haven't played many 30+3 SNGs) is that players even at that level on party will call with *tons* of hands unless you raise bigger than the pot. I think there is a good chance any suited or unsuited one or two gap cards, Ax, K6+, and possibly many other hands would call here. Basically anything but absolute junk.

In the early stages it seems that most party players want to call any bets that don't put their stack at risk as long as they have any two cards with 'potential.' And, if they hit top or middle pair on the flop or have an overcard or two, they are liable to then call a post flop bet. Hell, there are quite a few PP players who will call down your pot sized bets on every street because 'I thought you might be bluffing.'

However, what if you overbet the pot from the SB (nothing too ridiculous, but a raise to indicate you have AK or a decent to high pocket pair) and then *showed* your 27o. I've often thought about this to try and get your table on semi-tilt.

[rachelwxm]

Thanks for pointing out 2 factors along with early post.
1. get a feel of the table first.
2. position is somewhat important.
I definitely agree 1.
For 2. If you raise from CO, they might think you are pushing blinds out or on a steal while if you do this from sb or bb, they give you more credit for strong hand. Also, there are people left to act sb and bb what if you get reraised BF? /images/graemlins/smile.gif

I was on a SNG the other day and first level there are average 3 people saw flop including blinds, nobody really call a raise>4bb. And then one guy then raise 4-5bb 4 out of 5 hands in a row. One time I was in bb w AQs and I fold?
Sometimes I was too chicken. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[luvrhino]

> One time I was in bb w AQs and I fold?

I probably call if he's done this several times, though i'm usually a Limit player so i don't know NL too well. Depends on how many people are left and what the various stacks are.

You're still giving your opps too much credit for thinking. A lot of them don't even take position into account.

[chill888]

Sure you can convince yourself that this play might work ---but that's half the problem with many bad plays. Just cause they often work doesn't make them long term good strategy.

Where does it end? Why not push small pair everytime from middle position? Who will put you on that. Why just 72o in your hand, why not without even looking at your cards.

Why not reraise with AJo. Who would believe it and it's not a bad hand.

Why not just give away your chips in the first few rounds?

What's the difference between you and a crazy guy at Party if you start playing 72o fast early in a tourney (not much?)

Good Luck,

[rachelwxm]

[ QUOTE ]

What's the difference between you and a crazy guy at Party if you start playing 72o fast early in a tourney (not much?)


[/ QUOTE ]

The difference is that I only dream of it instead of trying it. /images/graemlins/smile.gif Enough to separate me from those fishes?

I have such dream because my raise gets so much respect these days. If my 5bb raise w AA does not get a caller, is it time to start doing that with 72o for a change?

If every one knows to follow the GUIDE, is it a good counter strategy to play like this?

Let's say 10 poker machine w same skill (GUIDE for example) sitting at the same SNG table. Average ROI=-10% due to rake. Now one of them started malfunction and pushing hands like 72o. It was corrected before everyone else start to adjust to it. But it actually give it some edge over the rest field? /images/graemlins/smile.gif Remember you have less frequency to pick up playable hands from the GUIDE than you post blinds.

[chill888]

[ QUOTE ]
If every one knows to follow the GUIDE, is it a good counter strategy to play like this?

[/ QUOTE ]

NO - the goal is to play "The Guide" (if there was one) better than everyone else - or at least those at your table.

Don't start believing that just because bad players often hit their hands that they do anything else but lose money, day after day. they are not people to be emulated.

If people fold when you raise with ACES, then enjoy the blinds you won, be glad someone didn't crack them, and hope you get them again soon.

gl

[wjmooner]

Fun thought. This wouldn't work at Party because if you waste 100-150 chips, depending on your raise, there is a good chance you could be shortstacked, as others have pointed out.

At Stars you start with 1500, and even if you raise more than the pot you'd still be left with 1200 and the blinds at 10/20. Plenty of time to make a move.

So pot it, pick up the chips, and then show the bluff. All of the sudden people can't wait to call you down with middle pair.

C

[betgo]

If your 4xBB raise with AA gets no callers, I would try putting in a standard raise of 2.5-4xBB. However, with AA you will get action the 20% of the time an opponent has KK, QQ, JJ, or AK, and maybe the other 20% someone has 99, TT, or AQ. It doesn't matter if you limp, overbet, or what.

If I don't action with my raises, I put in loose raises, but not with 72: high cards, pairs, quited connectors and so on. You also have to consider position and how the blinds play.

[Grivan]

[ QUOTE ]
And then one guy then raise 4-5bb 4 out of 5 hands in a row. One time I was in bb w AQs and I fold?
Sometimes I was too chicken. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

Horrendus fold.

[rachelwxm]

Should I move in then? I was not sure about my post flop skills and if I just called and neither Q or A flop I am not sure what to do then. It cost me 120 more.

[Grivan]

Stacks are to deep here to move in, but you should definatly reraise how much is up to personal taste. I would generally double his bet. This way you don't really care wether he calls or folds (although a fold would be nice). On the flop you act first and can decide to take a shot at just about any flop and will probably take it down the vast majority of the time, and if you don't you will most likely have 2 suited overcards maybe a flush draw or a runner flush draw something to draw to if you are behind. If you get reraised on the flop you are probably safe to lay it down.

The key here is if you are affraid to take risks in a SNG you will never get a big enough stack to win a good % of them outright.