POLL: Flop decision

[btspider]

Typical table, no specific player reads. What should Hero do on the flop?

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (10 handed)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A/images/graemlins/club.gif, 4/images/graemlins/club.gif.
3 folds, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, 1 fold, CO calls, Hero calls, SB raises, BB calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, CO calls, Hero calls

Flop: (12 SB) K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 5/images/graemlins/club.gif, 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif (6 players)
SB bets, BB calls, MP1 raises, MP2 folds, CO folds, Hero ????

[Shalara]

I'm counting exactly 8 to 1 calling that raise. And I believe those are the odds you need for gutshot plus a backdoor. I worry a little about a raise behind, but I think the implied odds here make up for the risk.

[flexus]

Am I crazy to want to 3-bet this to clean up ace outs and get a free card on the turn?

[btspider]

[ QUOTE ]
Am I crazy to want to 3-bet this to clean up ace outs and get a free card on the turn?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you're sane. Do you see why? Its not even close. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Vote before reading (in white):
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<font color="white">I voted fold, fearing more action from the preflop raising SB. This is actually an Ed Miller quiz hand and the answer is to 3-bet these chumps. Your gutshot alone should have enough implied odds to warrant a call if you knew it would not be raised behind you. You also have a backdoor nut flush draw. Also, the SB may have raised PF and be betting AQ or a big suited Ace. By 3-betting, you may earn a free card and clean up your Ace outs if SB folds a better Ace. I thought this was a terrific hand when I was rereading SSH. If you have SSH, its on page 271. If you don't, then all the more reason to buy it!

Do you guys think the rainbow rag flop makes this decision easier?</font>
----

[Bukem_]

Not good so many people getting it wrong then.

I'm pretty sure I got it right in the book example, but I was weak here.

[cnfuzzd]

my question is why you didnt raise preflop?


peace

john nickle

voting 3 bet everytime

[Sent]

Rainbow flop is probably the only reason you would raise instead of folding

-Sent

[stinkypete]

i said fold but then i woke up and saw the gutshot. i take it back. i think it's close between calling and raising.

[btspider]

[ QUOTE ]
my question is why you didnt raise preflop?

[/ QUOTE ]

i don't know. i didn't actually play the hand. it was acting! brilliant! did you read my white text?

[cnfuzzd]

Nonsense. I would also raise if there were two clubs on the flop./images/graemlins/grin.gif

peace

john nickle

[cnfuzzd]

yes, i have read the white text now. A rainbow flop is imperative to raise this i think, simply because you have clean gutshot outs. Put a flush draw out, and you have to discount them. Bad.

peace

john nickle

I guess i will be asking the NPA why i didnt raise preflop

[helpmeout]

I call here, I dont think raising will knock SB or BB out. Most party fish will just stay for the ride when they have put money in.

I want to see the turn for 2 bets if a 3, a club, or an ace come I will see the river if they dont i will fold.

I'm not raising to get Ace outs, that is just wishful thinking. SB could easily have AK AA KK and if he does he will cap it back to me, which I dont want. MP1 might have 2 pair or a set making a pair of aces pretty worthless. I want a runner runner flush or a gutshot straight if I hit an ace and they freeze up i might get lucky but i dont think the odds are favourable for raising here.

Folding is pretty weak, you have multiple draws here and it is a decent sized pot.

[k000k]

[ QUOTE ]
This is actually an Ed Miller quiz hand and the answer is to 3-bet these chumps. Your gutshot alone should have enough implied odds to warrant a call if you knew it would not be raised behind you.

[/ QUOTE ]

You dont know that it wont be raised behind you, in fact you have good reason to think it WILL get raised behind you, SB was the original PF raiser, if he 3bets, BB may fold leaving you with only 3 in. If SB raises, you will have to call 3 and maybe 4 if MP1 caps.

So right now you're calling 2 for 16sb, that's 8:1 for right now, which would be worth it. Making up the extra 3:1 is doable cuz the pot's not huge. If you knew SB would raise and MP1 calls, you'll be calling 3 for 18 other sb's. If MP1 caps, you're calling 4 20bb other sb's, that's only 5:1. AND it's 5:1 on a larger pot, so it'll be much harder to make up for it later. If you get raised, it's like you're calling twice then, but not getting to see another card in between.

I said 'fold' and I stick by it, like Ed says, you have to KNOW that's all you're putting in to see the turn. My 2nd choice would be call if I thought they'd all stay in and no more raising would happen. You're betting on a gutshot and BD flush, I wouldn't 3bet, cuz putting a lot of hope into a naked pair of A's doesn't feel good.

[Piiop]

[ QUOTE ]
So right now you're calling 2 for 16sb, that's 8:1 for right now, which would be worth it. Making up the extra 3:1 is doable cuz the pot's not huge. If you knew SB would raise and MP1 calls, you'll be calling 3 for 18 other sb's. If MP1 caps, you're calling 4 20bb other sb's, that's only 5:1. AND it's 5:1 on a larger pot, so it'll be much harder to make up for it later. If you get raised, it's like you're calling twice then, but not getting to see another card in between.

[/ QUOTE ]

The correct answer here is to 3-bet, so you're not calling anyway. However, each time you have a decision, you only use the current potsize to determine correct odds. SB may reraise or he may not, but that does not affect the current odds you have. It's also unlikely that the SB will reraise. Of his possible holdings (AA-TT, AK/AQ/AJs) only AA/KK and AK would reraise here.

[ QUOTE ]
I said 'fold' and I stick by it, like Ed says, you have to KNOW that's all you're putting in to see the turn. My 2nd choice would be call if I thought they'd all stay in and no more raising would happen. You're betting on a gutshot and BD flush, I wouldn't 3bet, cuz putting a lot of hope into a naked pair of A's doesn't feel good.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you're doing what Ed says, you would be 3-betting. Reraising will possibly buy you a free card. If the SB has AQ or AJ , he will probably fold so your A outs will be clean. The only reason you wouldn't raise is if you knew the SB to be very aggressive and not give a free card on the turn. In that case, you would just call.

[TheHip41]

[ QUOTE ]
Am I crazy to want to 3-bet this to clean up ace outs and get a free card on the turn?

[/ QUOTE ]

Free card probably won't work. You have A4, and your aces out might not even be good. You have 4 outs to the straight and 2 outs to the backdoor flush. That's 6-1 at best, and it might get raised behind you. Fold, next hand.

Derek

[TheHip41]

[ QUOTE ]
I voted fold, fearing more action from the preflop raising SB. This is actually an Ed Miller quiz hand and the answer is to 3-bet these chumps

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't care if JC himself told me to 3-bet this, it isn't going to happen. That's just reckless.

What happens when it gets capped, and now the turn 8 of nothing, and it's bet and raised again. You almost have to call with your gutshot because you put so much in to make a huge pot. Chasing begets chasing.

And another thought, if you hit an ace, are you raising the turn?

Derek

[Peter Harris]

i voted cold call.

Time to reread ed miller.

Folding is wrong. Calling is bad but better. 3-betting is g00t.

Regards,
Pete Harris

[Piiop]

[ QUOTE ]
What happens when it gets capped, and now the turn 8 of nothing, and it's bet and raised again. You almost have to call with your gutshot because you put so much in to make a huge pot. Chasing begets chasing.

And another thought, if you hit an ace, are you raising the turn?


[/ QUOTE ]

If you're the SB here, are you capping it with QQ/JJ/TT AQs/AJs/ATs? If you're MP2, are you capping it with KJ or KT? The concern that it will be capped behind is just weak thinking. Many low-limit opponents won't even cap it with AK.

There's nothing wrong with "chasing" a draw when you have the correct odds to do so. It's actually what's known as "the correct play".

[flexus]

This is just insane. I can't believe the weak tightness of this poll. Almost everyone wants to fold!!! It's just wrong. This is a clearly profitable situation that can be made even more profitable by 3-betting.

Hell, it seems people just can't stand a little harmless variance.

[flexus]

However, each time you have a decision, you only use the current potsize to determine correct odds. SB may reraise or he may not, but that does not affect the current odds you have.

You should often fold a marginal holding even though you may have the odds to call at the moment. This situation often occurs with a weak draw and the bettor on you right with the field yet to act.

[Trix]

I voted 3bet, I think I´ll get a free card often and it may clean Ace outs.
If everyone calls, then I´ll be getting 7:1 and the gutshot alone is 5.1:1 to hit in two cards. If the backdoorflush and ace combined is worth 2 more outs, then its 3.1:1 to hit in two cards.
With two more limpers, this should be a raise preflop, with one more it´s probably close and I think I would limp. 3 is just bad imo.

[Entity]

Nice post, spider. I was torn between calling and raising and now I see the argument for raising.

Time to reread SSH. I also need to pick up HEPFAP.

Rob

[Piiop]

[ QUOTE ]
You should often fold a marginal holding even though you may have the odds to call at the moment. This situation often occurs with a weak draw and the bettor on you right with the field yet to act.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're right, flexus. I was mainly just thinking of situations where most of the field has already acted.

[k000k]

The correct answer here is to 3-bet, so you're not calling anyway. However, each time you have a decision, you only use the current potsize to determine correct odds.

Yes, I understand, but if you have to make 2 decisions in the same round, then you dont get a card in between. Your pot odds in this case get worse, dropping from 8:1 to maybe 5:1 in worst case scenario.. Not only that, but your implied odds get worse too, cuz it's harder to make back the 3:1 that your missing in pot odds on a 12bb pot vs an 8bb pot. That was all my point was,

[Piiop]

[ QUOTE ]
Yes, I understand, but if you have to make 2 decisions in the same round, then you dont get a card in between. Your pot odds in this case get worse, dropping from 8:1 to maybe 5:1 in worst case scenario.. Not only that, but your implied odds get worse too, cuz it's harder to make back the 3:1 that your missing in pot odds on a 12bb pot vs an 8bb pot. That was all my point was,

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, but the two decisions are seperate. You don't *know* that the SB or anyone else will reraise, and it's actually likely that they don't so you can't let influence your decision that much. Also, your implied odds are actually better if one of the other players still bets out on the turn or river. If you happen to hit your str8 or flush, you can raise and trap people in for more bets. As opposed to when they check to you, you can't trap anyone. If they don't bet out, you just get to see the river card for free. So, both situations are good for you.

[eric5148]

I voted fold.

I am so ashamed. /images/graemlins/frown.gif /images/graemlins/frown.gif /images/graemlins/frown.gif /images/graemlins/frown.gif

[k000k]

[ QUOTE ]
Yes, but the two decisions are seperate. You don't *know* that the SB or anyone else will reraise, and it's actually likely that they don't so you can't let influence your decision that much.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're right, the more I think about it I beleive a cap won't happen.. You have the position, use it.. I see the justification for 3betting, but it's hard for my novice brain to see that raising a thin draw with marginal odds, 2 opp's in, and ace-high is correct... If the opp's have just a pair of K's or ace high, this 3bet is a very awkward bet to call..