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View Full Version : My pocket aces can't take the heat.


Beck
10-06-2004, 06:11 PM
Just finished the party bonus, played a total of 2700 hands at 0,5/1. With AA 19 times, I got way more than my fair share. But I've only won with 9 (47,37%) of them, which really cuts into earnings. I read in another thread, that AA usually have a win rate of app. 75%.
So is this just another example of too small a sample size?
Or is there something wrong with my play? When reviewing these hands I think that my opponents are playing badly and are just getting lucky.
Have shown 3 hands below. Any and all critique is welcome.

Party Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (10 handed)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with A/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="CC3333">UTG raises</font>, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 folds, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, <font color="CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, CO folds, Button folds, SB folds, BB calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: (12.50 SB) 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(4 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG checks, <font color="CC3333">UTG+1 bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, BB folds, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: (9.25 BB) 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, <font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls.

River: (12.25 BB) 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, <font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">UTG raises</font>, UTG+1 folds, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 16.25 BB

Results in white below: <font color="white">
UTG has As 7s (straight, eight high).
Hero has Ah Ad (two pair, aces and eights).
Outcome: UTG wins 16.25 BB. </font>

Party Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (10 handed)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with A/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif. CO posts a blind of $0.50.
UTG calls, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, UTG+2 calls, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, MP3 calls, CO (poster) calls, Button calls, SB folds, BB calls, UTG calls.

Flop: (14.50 SB) 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif, Q/images/graemlins/club.gif, 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(7 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">BB bets</font>, UTG calls, Hero calls, UTG+2 calls, <font color="CC3333">MP3 raises</font>, CO folds, Button folds, BB calls, UTG calls, Hero calls, UTG+2 calls.

Turn: (12.25 BB) 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(5 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG checks, <font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG+2 calls, MP3 calls, BB calls, UTG calls.

River: (17.25 BB) 2/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(5 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG checks, <font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG+2 folds, MP3 calls, BB calls, UTG calls.

Final Pot: 21.25 BB

Results in white below: <font color="white">
BB has Js Qs (one pair, queens).
UTG has 9c 6c (two pair, nines and sixes).
Hero has Ac Ah (one pair, aces).
MP3 has Qh Jh (one pair, queens).
Outcome: UTG wins 21.25 BB. </font>

Party Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (8 handed)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, MP2 calls, CO folds, Button folds, SB folds, BB folds, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: (7.50 SB) J/images/graemlins/spade.gif, K/images/graemlins/heart.gif, J/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
UTG+1 checks, <font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">MP2 raises</font>, UTG+1 folds, Hero calls.

Turn: (5.75 BB) 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, MP2 checks.

River: (5.75 BB) T/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">MP2 raises</font>, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 9.75 BB

Results in white below: <font color="white">
Hero has Ad Ah (two pair, aces and jacks).
MP2 has Ks 4s (flush, king high).
Outcome: MP2 wins 9.75 BB. </font>


these are just a couple of examples. As I mentioned above, I believe that these players are making mistakes even seeing the flop. I know that bad players are those I will make money of in the long run. But I'm starting to wonder, Am I the bad player???

bisonbison
10-06-2004, 06:37 PM
I'd 3-bet the flop in hand 2. That's all.

LeftBack
10-06-2004, 06:41 PM
GoCee Winning Percentages (http://gocee.com/poker/HE_Val_Sort.htm)

Your estimate is a little high for full ring games. GoCee says 64% with 3 opponents. My 25k hands (120 times) says 68%, so draw your own conclusions about sample size. You can find a lot of hand stats if you search the archives.

Beck
10-07-2004, 12:35 AM
Agreed. This was actually due to a misclick.

Beck
10-07-2004, 12:47 AM
The percentage I mentioned (75%) was a figure I had seen in another thread.

My total stats for AA is 73% in 82 times. So still a good figure, it was just the latest occurences that got me worried, because it felt VERY low. But all due to variance I guess.
Thanks for the link.