Pot Odds and NL Holdem MTT

[Steve Chase]

I would like to hear successful MTT players to give me your opinion about applying pot odds theory to NL Holdem MTT games.

Most MTT games I played are somewhat aggressive. Particullary at middle or later stages. If we use pot odds to determine if a bet should be called or not. We probably will never call.

For example, blinds at 100/200. preflop pot is 1000. If someone bet 1000 into me and I have a flush draw
(say I have QcJc and flop is Kd7c2c), according to pot odds
thoery, I should not call since I have only 9 outs (4-1) and pot odds is 3-1.
By the same token I should fold open ended draws, ..etc.

I don't see much draws are better than flush draws and open ended draws. In other words, if someone bet pot size, we cannot play any drawing hand if we follow the pod odds theory.

My questions are:
1. Do you follow pot odds theory in NL Holdem MTT to determine if you should call?
Always, Often, rarely, or never?
2. If you do not use pot odds as a main tool to decide your calls, what other factors are more important?
feel, read, table image, .....?

Thanks

[familyteeth]

this is something i pulled from a past thread on this subject. see what you think


Multi draw hand play 1.9:1 or 4.6:1
Suppose in a NLHE winner-take-all tourney, with eight players remaining, blinds are 100/200, I am chip leader with a huge stack, and an opponent minraises to 400. Everyone folds to me in the big blind with 97. I think the minraise might be aces or kings. Anyway I call preflop so there’s 900 in the pot, and my opponent has X chips remaining. The flop comes J85 giving me a double-gutter which will be very well hidden if I hit. I check and my opponent bets 700. When he makes this bet I become pretty certain he has AA or KK.

My theory is that if X>2320 I can call, and if X<1000 (so that his flop bet puts him all in or nearly all in) I can call, but if X is between 1000 and 2338 then calling is out of the question and I have to fold (or raise allin if there’s a good chance the opponent will then lay down).

The reason is, with eight outs the odds against my hitting by the end of the hand are 1.9:1, so when X<1000 I can see both cards and will get better than adequate pot odds.
The odds against my hitting on the turn are 4.6:1 (i.e. 37:8), so even if I plan to fold on the turn when I miss I can call the 700 flop bet if it will win me more than
3220 when I hit (3220 = 700 x 4.6). The assumption is that if a 6 or a T falls on the turn I will get the rest of my opponent’s chips; otherwise I will fold.
Subtract the 900 that went in the pot preflop from 3220 to yield 2320.

If X=1800 (for example) and my opponent bets 700 of that on the flop, I cannot call. If I did call and then hit the straight on the turn, the most I would win is 2700 (the 900 that went in the pot preflop plus my opponent’s additional 1800) so my implied odds are only 2700:700 = 3.9:1. If I called the flop and then missed the turn, my opponent would bet his remaining 1100 and I would have to fold.
Is any of this correct, or am I mistaken? It seems strange that I can call my opponent’s bet if the money is shallow or deep, but not in between.
I posted a version of this problem in the one-table tournament forum last week; I am posting here for further feedback.

I havent checked the figures but when reading it your maths looks like you are running it from the flop.

You also have to make extra money when you hit your hand to make up for the loss when you miss your draw/2 pair on the flop.

So assuming you make a draw 3:1, you’ll have to make an extra T1200 when you hit a hand. (Plus the extra from his flop bet too).

The math for this is a bit long, but it can be easily worked out if you do one of those probability tree diagrams.
Hey.

You have to look at the effective odds over the whole hand. This wont change your decision on the flop (or your maths) but it will show you if the hand as a whole was -EV or +ev.

Say his stack is T2320 on the flop and you call for the breakeven play. While your flop call is breakeven, the hand as a whole is -EV because you have failed to make the extra 3*T200 (my mistake in the first reply) which you need to because of the times you wont flop a draw. Since you are assuming you are against AA KK, so you’ll be folding when you don’t make 2 pair or a draw. See it?

To add another part of NL theory in there, this is why i feel going multiway with suited connectors is much more important than going heads up with deep stacks. So for my preflop hand decisions, multiway VS heads up has more of an effect than deep stack or shallow stacks.

However with hands such as pocket pairs having deep stacks is more important than going multiway.

[JMP300z]

Your Q seems to pertain to NL games more than tournaments.

Depending on your table image, how well disguised your draw is, how big yours and your opponents stacks are and how loose/agressive they are, you can easily justify a 1:1 pot odds call based on implied odds. Also how strong is your draw? Are you drawing to the nuts? Do you have other outs (ie. Flush draw + over cards= possibly 15 outs? over cards, straight draw and back door flush draw??).

Other things come into play...will your opponent fold if you raise on a semibluff? Then you have to take into account folding equity. Will you earn a free card through your raise? Do you think your opponents hand is weak enough that you can move them off it with a bluff-call (ie cold calling and raising big on the turn or river). Are they betting a weaker draw or a middle pair or anything. Just b/c an opponent bets doesnt mean they are have a hand you cant move them off.

There are many factors as to how you should play your draws in a NL game... IF you are a limit player (which it sounds like you might be) you must learn that pot odds are just as important in NL as they are in limit, just that other factors play more of a role (knowing the opponent's betting tendencies is huge...ie some players never play aggressive with draws, never bet out of early position without at least TPTK, or other things).

-Anyways, do some research, read some books, play more poker for more answers.