PHL hand

Here's a hand at ultimatebet. I have AA in the small blind. Five callers preflop, including myself and the blinds. I raise the pot, everyone folds except the big blind and under the gun. Flop comes 952 rainbow. I check to see what the others will do and bb bets the pot, under the gun calls and I call. Turn is a 7, completing the rainbow. BB bets the pot, UTG calls and I call. River is a 3. I check, UTG bets, I call. UTG takes down a monster pot with 46o. BB had 52o. What could I have done differently and was it wrong to assume that two two players calling the large preflop raise had overpairs?

Pokerdude, not much you can do here with AA if they are going to call you preflop with 64 and 52. Once you saw the flop, you were at LEAST going to lose another pot size bet, depending on stack sizes.


Unless the opponents are tricky and tough, you will usually know where you stand with AA after the flop. If you bet the pot and get raised, you can be sure he's not afraid of AA since that is exactly what you are saying you have.


However, you messed up big time with this hand. You should have led at the pot on the flop. There's no need to mess around here. Go ahead and let them know you have AA. If they have KK or QQ, you will probably double up since most weak players just can't let go of this hand and they almost NEVER put pressure on AA with it after the flop.


You were doomed, because 52 flopped two pair anyway, but you almost certainly could have led at the pot, got raised, and folded. Basically, saving yourself tons of money by being more assertive with your hand. Even if you had bet the pot and got called, against typical opponents you should now shut down and check-fold the turn. (see my comments below about typical big bet opponents). They are probably slowplaying a set or two pair.


Not only that, but your meek "check and see" method actually worked for you becuase someone bet the flop and somebody called it! Now you can fold your AA no problem. But you didn't!


Lastly, in answer to your question, it was clearly wrong to assume that the others had overpairs just because they called preflop raises, but you should know that about your opponents within a pretty short period of time. With certain opponents, you can guarantee they have QQ, KK, or they have AA hoping you have KK. With others, they could have 52. You need to observe closely and determine how each opponent plays.


Ok, this is the last thing I promise. One interesting thing I find about big bet poker is most players suck at it. And most of them have no balls. You'll know a maniac when you see one within about 3 hands. So the rest, if they are unknown to you, it is safe to assume they are weak, have no balls, and can't let go of top pair. So if you start getting raised or bet into after you have raised, you can usually fold to a new unknown opponent. They have your measly overpair beaten.


natedogg

Natedogg -


Your analysis of this hand is right on, and your description of the "typical" big-bet player is accurate as well - in relation to this hand, however the question begs: how do you know when (with a ragged flop) an uknown player is not merely raising you with an overpair as well? (ostensibly, one that is lower than your AA)

You can't know. And unless your stack is small enough to be put all-in by that flop raise, I think you should fold to an unknown player. If you have enough chips to call the raise and put in another pot size bet, you should fold. You would have to commit 18 times the current bet just to call a turn bet. If you have enough to call a bet on the river (which would mean HUGE stacks), that flop raise is representing 54 times the current pot.


Fold unless you know the player is a maniac. You are paying him off for flopping a set against AA.


natedogg