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View Full Version : Is the long run too long to determine in the short run?


Ray Of Light
10-06-2004, 11:11 AM
I am one of seemingly many newer players (2 years or less playing) that is having a little trouble understanding what indicators I can look at to determine what my BB per hour win rate is.

I understand that a sample of even 100k hands is simply too small to determine your win rate, and even if you have logged 500K hands you can, at most, make an assumption as to whether you are a winning player or not, but not nessecarily pinpoint how much your game strategy can earn you per hour.

And even when you do have enough data to start assuming that your BB per hour rate is nearer accurate, you will undoubtedly be a better player now than when you started logging your results, so even then, your BB rate may not truly reflect your earning potential...

So how can anyone ever come to know their true BB per hour earn rate? Or do we simply have to assume that we are earning 1BB an hour per table so long as we a). choose the right games, b). have our bankrolls hold out, and c). play to a good 'by the book' game strategy?...

When is the short run long enough for us to make an accurate assumption about our BB per hour rate? /images/graemlins/confused.gif Any math or statistical data would also be appreciated too... /images/graemlins/smile.gif

pudley4
10-06-2004, 11:28 AM
You can use your standard deviation along with your win rate to determine a range of winrates that you most likely fall within.

They can explain it better in the probability forum. Give them your win rate (BB/100hands or BB/hr), standard deviation, and number of hands/hrs. Someone will be able to show you how to calculate your true winrate within a certain confidence level.