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View Full Version : Surely this is a typo - Negreanu column calculates odds wrong


binions
10-06-2004, 04:14 AM
http://www.fullcontactpoker.com/cparticles_archives.php?id=00070

Describes a turn situtation where he feels he has 14 outs. Says the odds with 46 unseen cards are 46:14, or 3.3 to 1. Says this makes his call of a 1000 bet at a 4000 pot correct.

Surely Daniel knows better, and this was a typo by his editor. If 32 cards don't help, and 14 do, the odds are 32:14, or 2.3 to 1. You can call a pot sized bet (2 to 1) with 14 outs.

AJo Go All In
10-06-2004, 06:58 AM
the math is not actually wrong, it's just stated weirdly. his pot size figure includes his call.

so really he is saying that he has a 1 in 3.3 chance of winning the pot, so it is correct to put in 1200/4025 of the pot (less than 1/3.3)

binions
10-06-2004, 09:39 AM
Good spot on the pot size. But he confuses "odds" with "chances."

"With the blinds still at $100-$200, I found another monster hand in the 42! This time I was on the button, and everyone had folded to me.

Despite being at my new table for such a short time, I thought I had good control over both of the players to my left. They appeared to be playing a conservative, straightforward style. So, I decided to take a stab at picking up the blinds and came in for $600.

The small blind called, and immediately I knew I’d have to get lucky. I’d already seen this player slow-play a big pair behind a raise, but I’d also noticed that he played his hands carefully throughout. So, with the big blind folding, the two of us took the flop: K98.

With this flop, I had 4 high, of course, but I’d also picked up a flush draw. My opponent checked, and I decided to take the free card and also checked. The turn brought me some help in the 4. Before I even had time to process what this card meant to my hand, my opponent fired out $1,200.

Here was dilemma No. 1: It was $1,200 to call. I had $5,450 left, so if I called, I’d be left with $4,250. Should I raise here? Hmm … well, not unless I believed I had the best hand or thought a raise would make my opponent fold the best hand.

Nope, I wasn’t going to raise. Sure, I considered the fact that my pair of fours was good, but I wasn’t about to risk my whole tournament on that type of hunch. So, with a bet of $1,200 to me, I calculated my pot odds. I assumed that a deuce, a 4, or a spade would win me the pot. That’s a total of 14 outs with one card to come. Since there were 46 unseen cards, I figured my odds of winning the pot were 46-to-14, or approximately 3.3-to-1. With $4,025 in the pot, the odds were correct for me to call, especially considering the fact that my pair might be the best hand. In all honesty, though, I was done with this hand unless I improved."

Preflop:
Blinds $300
Negreanu raise $600
SB calls $600
$1500 in pot

Flop checked

Turn
SB bets $1200
$2700 in pot

The "odds" on a call are 9 to 4. The "chance" you might win if you call is 4 out of 13.

Strange to go the extra step of including your call to the size of the pot to determine your chance of winning it, and comparing that to your outs' chance of hitting.