Folding a set on the river

[joker122]

Party 5/10 6max 6 handed

I limp after 2 limpers in the CO with black 4s. The button, who is shortstacked, raises. The SB folds and the rest call. 5 to the flop for 10.5 SB.

Flop 4 /images/graemlins/heart.gif K /images/graemlins/spade.gif T /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

checked to me and I bet, button calls all in with $3, and everyone else calls.

Turn A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif

checked to MP who bets, I raise, BB folds, UTG calls 2 cold, MP calls.

River J /images/graemlins/heart.gif

check to MP who bets, I call, UTG raises, MP folds and I fold.

This fold is standard, right? What about preflop?

[imitation]

I don't fold here ever, you are getting 20-1(if my maths is correct), you're telling me you've never seen an overplayed 2 pair on the river, not even 5% of the time?

[Scotch78]

44 won't win without a set, so the question is whether you have the odds to try for one. Two limpers and the BB isn't enough opponents. The table's saw flop percentage would have to be astronomical to anticapate enough calls behind you to make this play profitable.

It's a crying call on the river, but I make it.

Scott

[imitation]

The PF isn't too loose and the button raising isn't bad either, I'll agree that I don't limp here all the time though.

[Grisgra]

I almost always limp here -- 3 other players should be plenty. You're going to flop a set (and likely win with it) what, one in nine times? I'd be surprised if with four people seeing a flop that 3 more BB don't land in the pot (and that's what you'd need to see a profit, assuming no pf raise. With a raise, you're hurting more, but even then you're not much of a dog. I mean, what did this pot end up being in size? Doubtful you'd lose it if a 4-straight didn't hit the board.)

[joker122]

..,.

[rtucker5]

I know your question on this hand was the river play, but why did you bet out on the flop? There is a 0% chance the button doesn't put his last $3 in and you can checkraise any callers getting the additional $3 from them.

[Guido]

Preflop: I would limp like you did. With 3 or 4 loose opponents that's more than enough to make this call.

Flop: Since the button is almost all-in. I would go for a check raise. When the button had a bigger stack I would bet and hope the button would raise to thin the field.

Turn: I would raise to, no reason to believe you're behind and the only reasonable hand that beats you is QJ. The cold call from UTG worries me a little. Does he have a flush draw? Two pair? QJ?

River: On the river I would call both times. The pot is just too big to fold and I would like to know what kind of hand UTG cold called with and check-raised the river. Was it QJ or two pair? In a smaller pot I can make this fold against certain opponents but without a read and in a big pot like this I would call to get a better read and there is still a good change he doesn't have a Q.

Hope this helps...

Thanks,

Guido

[tripdad]

i would have raised preflop and otherwise played as you did except for folding the river. you know you are beaten a majority of the time, but in a pot this size, folding a decent hand is not good. you are closing the action...call.

cheers!

[joker122]

UTG showed KcTc for 2pair and HHWG.

Thanks for the replies, I don't know what I was thinking on that river.

[balkii]

When the button had a bigger stack I would bet and hope the button would raise to thin the field.

hey guido - this is incorrect. you definitely want to checkraise the button here, regardless of his stack size. You definitely DONT want to thin the field.

think about it like this. suppose the flop came 2 suited, and you had the A-high flush draw. you would almost certainly checkraise the button (assuming 2 others called his bet)...correct?

well here you have the same odds on a fullhouse draw, but you ALSO have the best hand. put as much money into the pot as possible, and checkraising the button is the best way to do this.

[Guido]

I gave the wrong reason when I said that I would bet and hope the button would raise. The reason isn't to raise the field but to get as much money in the pot as possible. My experience is that any draw, top pair or even a pair isn't going to fold for even two SB. That's why I prefer betting out and 3-betting above a check-raise. In this hand I would check-raise because the button is almost all-in but when he wasn't, I would bet out.

I understand what you are trying to say but in my experience I get to 3-bet a lot of the time with 2 or 3 other opponents. Am I wrong in doing so?

Thanks,

Guido

[StellarWind]

The pot size is large. You need to be pretty certain you know what you are doing before you fold. Two problems:

1. The checkraise is suspicious. This is not exactly a classic play with four parts to Broadway on the river. Why didn't he bet?

2. It's pretty clear to a thinking player that neither you nor MP has a queen. This inference is not 100%, but it's plenty strong enough to launch a bluff. Even a simpler soul might sense the general idea: you guys already had hands before the river.