what are the odds losing with quad 8s?

[locoloco]

i guess you all do know the bad beat jackpot at partypoker? the qualifying losing hand must contain 2 hole cards makin at least quad 8s to lose against another hand same conditions. what are the odds for that?

When is it profitable choosin a table with a bad beat jackpot at party?

[Macdaddy Warsaw]

I don't know the odds, but I think the odds of quads over quads are far lower than of a straight flush over straight flush. I guess it makes sense though. You only need 7 specific cards dealt out, instead of 8.

Anyway, I'll let the experts handle this, just letting you know you're more likely to hit playing those suited connectors than playing 8's.

[koolmoe]

You have to use both hole cards, so straight flush over straight flush will be rarer than you think. Straight flush over quads is a better possibility.

If playing at the BBJ tables is more profitable, it is because they attract the more casual player interested in gambling it up, not because you might hit the jackpot.

[sillyarms]

I'm sure this has been asked before but i can't seem to find it using search. I would really like to know how to solve this problem. http://www.partypoker.com/news/badbeat.html <- Tells the rules of the jackpot. BruceZ, oh wise and benevolent master of calculations. Could you help us out on this one?


silly

[o0mr_bill0o]

The problem with purely running the odds is that it'll fail to account for the hands people fold that might have qualified. I think the best way to evaluate the effective average would be to simply look at the size of the jackpot whenever it gets one. after evaluating a bunch I think you'd have a pretty accurate effective average. you can calculate the probability of it being hit at your table, and then work out the effective % of the jackpot you take each time it's hit at your table (i.e. factoring in the fact that you'll be the one beat occasionally, the one beating occasionally, and one watching occasionally, and factoring the average % assuming equal probability of being in each spot). with all that info it should be a pretty easy matter of figuring out when it's +EV to play and when it isn't.