Amazing hand on Ultimate Bet

1-2 PL at UB. I am in early position and limp with J10c. Next guy in makes it 9 to go- but he raises constantly so this doesn't mean much. A few more callers. I have like 260 in my stack, other guys have a little less, but none are less than 150. Flop comes down K95 with one club, the 9. I check, original raiser checks, next player bets 40. This was less than the whole pot. Button calls the 40. Now it is decision time: I know I have only a gutshot and a backdoor flush draw, but I figure for 40 bucks (assuming the original pre-flop raiser doesn't pop it) I might be getting a good price to take a shot at the str8 or a club, because if I make my hand, I am likely to get paid off. I call the 40, the original raiser folds, and then the perfect card comes- a Q of clubs! Now I have the nuts straight and a str8 flush draw. I bet the pot, knowing that the next player will call me as he only has about 95 left and is pot stuck with my bet in. The Button is also a consideration as he has over 200 left, but I figure he has something strong to smooth call the flop. Both call, the river is an Ace, I still have the nuts. I bet the pot and the Button calls the rest of his stack. I win a 650 dollar pot. The first guy who was all-in had KQ for top two, the button had 55 for bottom set.


I know I sucked out with the worst hand on the turn, but my assessment was that a 40$ loss was acceptable considering my implied odds to hit a Q or a club re-draw. Of course, just a club wouldn't have been so great, and it might have put me in a tough position, but again I thought the chances of getting both players stacks was very high- and I was right. What do you think? Was I just out of control and very lucky, or was this a sound play?

Not to put too fine a point on it, but implied odds only get you so far. You had nowhere near the odds to call, and you were shooting at stacks that were only a few times the size of the bet!


Implied odds come into play when you're calling $9, looking at busting someone for $200. They don't figure in when you're calling $40, looking to bust someone for $95 more with only two cards to come.


Your implied odds are way better than that in a limit $40-80 game, but calling a gutshot when the pot is only laying you 3-1 is a bad play there, where you might actually get paid off! It's simply not defensible for 15% of your stack with two cards to come.


The flop missed you. Fold.


- target

Well, I made almost 400 dollars on a 40$ mistake, but I guess that is a little less than the odds of hitting the gutshot. I'm not really sure what my exact odds were when you factor in the backdoor flush, but I imagine it added a little bit of value. Anyway I felt I could get both players stacks and I did. You mentioned the guy with 95 left but not the guy with over 200. Sure maybe this situation was mathemeatically marginal even with the end result- but I sure am glad I did it, and if the exact situation were to arise again, I'd probably have to do it the same. Your comments about implied odds in limit are a bit confusing to me? I do this in limit, I make a few extra Big bets- in PL, I get stacks. Sure I will definitely get paid off in limit, but it is much easier for the players to put me on the hand, as no one thinks twice about calling for gutshots in limit, and therefore players are more aware of the possibility. In this situation I knew they'd have no clue where I was, and I took a shot. Sure I got lucky, but I risked 40$ to make almost 400. If I don't see the str8 on the turn, I check and then re-assess, even if the turn is a club. It may have been marginal, but I definitely don't think it was a clear cut fold, and I'm glad I gave it a shot. I rarely call for hands like this-I just felt in this spot it was a guaranteed pay-off if I hit, and I didn't have time to calculate the exact implied odds of their stacks against a 40$ risk.

I don't think it's that bad a play if you push the numbers around by about 15%.


The backdoor flush is of little value unfortunately, as you cannot call another bet on the turn even if you catch the 8c, giving you an open ended straight flush draw. You simply will not be getting good odds. This makes your hand little more than a gutshot with 1 card to catch, but 2 cards to collect if you hit.


So in summary, bad play, but just a smack on your wrist effort, not a sending to your room offense like many plays at UB.

You can always fold if the 2d or 9h comes off. On the other hand, if you get a club, 8, or Q, you've suddenly got good odds. Note that if you *knew* that somebody had a set, you should probably fold since you can easily hit and still lose.


-MD

Their stacks were not that deep, and you don't WANT to pick up the flush draw on the turn. In PL the bets are going to be pot-sized, and you certainly do not have the odds to call anything with one card to come. And what if you were to hit your straight on the flush on the turn, raised someone's pot-sized bet, and then had them make a "crying call" with their set only to fill up on the river? You can lose your entire stack by making questionable calls, and hitting questionable hands. Even if someone was only playing top pair, if the board pairs, you _cannot call another $100_. You said in one of your replies that you won $400 for risking $40; there are also those times where you'll hit the card and lose, losing $200. This is most definitely not a profitable play. If you want to gamble, fine... but if you're looking to play poker to win money, fold.


Max

Making money is not really a problem for me on Ultimate Bet. You say "what if, what if..." but I had a good read on the situation and already figured what I needed to get both stacks. I knew both players had strong hands, or at least hands that they were very unlikely to let go of. If the board paired on the river, which was probably less likely since most of the cards on the board were in their hands, I could get away from the hand, especially knowing I'd get to see the winner as a player was all-in. The thing is, I may never encounter this situation again, so making a slight mistake mathematically isn't that damaging in the long run, because I will rarely encounter this exact scenario. It is no worse for me to lose 40$ in this situation than it would be for me to lose it on a steal that gets caught or a similar play. Sure, what if I only got 200 instead of close to 400? The point is, that wasn't going to happen if I made my hand- precisely because it was a hand that no one could imagine I had, and because for them to be in that far considering a raise pre-flop, it was very likely that they both had good cards. Remember, I was at the table and played with these players for a good while.

Besides, if you really want to talk about mistakes, how about calling a pot-sized raise cold with KQos? Or slowplaying bottom set on the button with two straight cards on the board? Both of these players made errors that put them in a terrible position- had the button went ahead and pushed when he had the best hand, he'd have still gotten paid off significantly, and wouldn't have been in the predicament he ended up in.

By the way, I wouldn't consider the nuts a "questionable" hand, and "you can lose your entire stack" a variety of ways, including betting the best hand and getting out-drawn on the river. If your advice is based on the fact that I "could" lose money, the smartest play would be to never play poker at all- if you are saying this play will cost me in the long run, understand that I will probably never encounter this exact situation again, so there is no long run...

Anyway, I do play poker to win money, and have done quite well in PL and NL. I'm not trying to say that its always right to chase the gutshot-because it rarely is- but this seemed to be a case when it was. (And if it wasn't, I'm still keeping the money.) /images/smile.gif

"The thing is, I may never encounter this situation again, so making a slight mistake mathematically isn't that damaging in the long run, because I will rarely encounter this exact scenario."


And what does not encourering that situation again have to do with anything?

It means that the play, which may be slightly poor in a mathematical sense, isn't neccessarily going to cost me anymore than the 40$ I risk initially. I believe Sklansky and Malmuth talk about making a mathematically questionable play on occasion if a player believes winning the gamble will have an effect that makes up for the slight error, as long as a player realizes he should not get into the habit of it. It isn't going to cause an epidemic in my play that makes me consistently make a slight mathematical error, thus losing money in the "long run". I made a read on the situation- but I didn't have my calculator handy to figure out the "exact" implied odds, so I estimated that it was worth me risking 40$ to get their stacks, which totaled a little less than 400. The fact that I will probably never be in this situation again makes the play an isolated incident in which a *slight* mathematical error is not detrimental in the long run, because it is an error that is unlikely to be repeated over and over. When people say things like "keep playing like that" in some cases they are right- to constantly chase gutshots against *slightly* bad pot odds is a losing play in the long run, but to do it once a year because you feel the implied odds are close and have a good read on the situation, is not the kind of play that fits in the "keep playing that way and you'll go bust" category. The point is, you don't get in the situation I was in that often- if I miss, I lose 40$- big deal, but if I hit, I make just under 400. To me, the "long run" error of this play is not really an issue, because I don't get in a situation where chasing a gutshot str8 against two or three opponents will get me their stacks all that often. Anyway, I'm not sure if this clears up what I mean- but if you are convinced it is such a bad play then you should probably look for me on Ultimate Bet and teach me a lesson. That is, if making all these bad plays doesn't bust me first /images/wink.gif.

"you don't WANT to pick up the flush draw on the turn."


The club on the turn helps him get called by the two pair, since ShaunB could be betting a flush draw/w-pair like: Kc-10c, Kc-Jc, maybe even Ac-5c if he's loose.

Eventhough your immediate price is bad, that doesn't imply you are making a mathematical mistake if your implied odds are good enough.


"The fact that I will probably never be in this situation again makes the play an isolated incident in which a *slight* mathematical error is not detrimental in the long run, because it is an error that is unlikely to be repeated over and over."


Your overall expectation is the sum of expectations of your actions (the Roy Cooke byline). Its doesn't matter if you never take this specific action again in your life. It is part of your overall expectation. The fact of the matter is that the vast majority of decisions are unique. If we "allowed" ourselves to make errors on all the unique decisions we would be welcomed to the tables.


It _sounds_ like you might be also trying to mix in the concept of occasionally doing something marginal or even wrong for deception. Thats separable from your implied odds and should show a profit in and of itself. Personally I think you can find enough places in big bet poker where you are just about dead even with your opponent that you don't ever need to take a negative price to appear loose.


What grabbed me about your post was that it sounded like you thought because you were only going to make the mistake once it was OK. You shouldn't ever have to "make a mistake". Instead you should have reasons for taking an action. It might be that the immediate price is bad but the implied price is good (this is often a consideration in big bet poker). Or that you want to build a looser image so you can get paid off on your good hands later (although this can be taken to extremes).


But don't let yourself slip into thinking "well, I'll just make this one mistake, it won't cost me much". That way lies ruin.

I guess that was part of the reason I knew I'd be able to get their stacks if I made my hand- because I am probably the tightest player at the table in this game. My point is I just don't think this was a large enough error to make it a detrimental play in the long run. I did make 9.75-1 on my 40$ risk, and though that is less than the odds of hitting the 4 outer, it would have been easy to get away had I not hit a nice turn card. Anyway, I appreciate the input- I must admit I felt like a bit of an a-hole after hitting such a ridiculous hand. Anyway I still don't think it was a major error, though I understand that the sum of one's actions equals his expectation. I just don't expect I'll be making too many errors because of this play- it may have been an error itself, but it won't change my play in general.