Slow playing for the Bonus?

[Cleveland Guy]

Regular tables - so no extra rake taken, but they do offer a royal flush bonus. $50 Times the BB. I'm playing $1-$2 so it's an extra $100.

Should I slow play the turn for my 1 outer for the bonus? or just try and bet to take more of the pot?

$1/2 Pokerroom 5 max, 5 seated

Hero is Button with A /images/graemlins/spade.gif Q /images/graemlins/spade.gif.

UTG Calls, 1 Fold, Hero Raises, SB Folds, BB Calls, UTG Calls.

Flop: K /images/graemlins/spade.gif T /images/graemlins/spade.gif 3 /images/graemlins/heart.gif

UTG Checks, Hero Bets, BB Raises, UTG Folds, Hero Calls, Buttons Calls.

Turn: 6 /images/graemlins/spade.gif Hero Bets, BB Folds.

[junkmail3]

Do the math:

One out: 45:1 to get your card. You get 1BB if you bet and he calls, but you lose 50BB if he folds and the J /images/graemlins/spade.gif is next.

You check (lose on BB) 45 times, get 50BB 1 time. out of 46 times, it's +5BB if you check.

So, you should check. You may/may not get that BB back on the river if he would have folded, but now will call the 4 flush.

Mathematically, it would have been correct to check.

[junkmail3]

(Not counting the chance that he bets the turn on a bluff anyway) You can always check-raise the river to get that bet back too (if you miss).

[Siingo]

Well I think you should check....

I did the math with the thinking that if you bet he call 65% of the time and if you check then he bet 35% of the time becaus he thinks you do not have the flush..

If you bet then you win in average:
0.65 * 2 + 1/46 * 100 * 0.65 = 2.71

(1 bet 65% of the time and also the bonus 65% of the time if your card is the next..)

If you check then you win in average:
0.35 * 2 + 100 * 1/46 = 2.87

(1 bet 35% of the time and the bonus everytime if your card is the next.)

But everything depend on how often you think he will call, bet, maybe reraise and if you might raise him after he bet. Not to mention witch acction you will get at the river depending on what you do at the turn.

It was a long time since I did some math but I think I have done it right!!!