Advice on Bubble Hand

[4spades]

Hand from last night, interesting format to this tournament. Wasn't sure if I should post this in multi-table but I think it really belongs in the one-table category. $10+1 15 person tournament on the Gaming Club. You start with three 5-person tables, working down to two 5-person and then a final table of 5. Payout top 3 $75/$45/$30. I kinda like the short handed format, better reads.

Anyways, here's the hand. Two short stacks and two big, I'm currently 3/4.

4 remaining, Blinds 150/300
UTG - 5400
Button - 1100
Small - 4700
Hero - 1700

Hero is dealt black 7's. UTG raises to 2000, Button folds, small blind folds, Hero? Call All-in or Fold?

The big stacks have been stealing with immunity, but the 2000 raise gives me some concern because the steals have typically come with min raises and 3x the BB. He may however be switching it up as my stack has dwindled recently. The other small stack hasn't played a hand in 3 orbits and looks like he's attempting to limp into the money.

What's my play? Results to follow

[NotMitch]

Fold. Pushing with 77 on the bubble is one thing, calling is another.

[trumpman84]

Hmm...the raise seems to indicate a hand he doesn't want to play after the flop, so it's possible he's holding a smaller pair, but it's also possible he's holding a medium pair 88-JJ.

Here's how I see it...sevens are a great hand to go all-in with, but this situation where you are going to call off your and get no folding equity, so they'll have to survive seven cards against overcards...a coinflip. They could be well behind too, with a slight chance of being well ahead.

If you want my advice, I'd probably fold...when I'm short stacked, I look to be the first to put my money in, and not call off my money without a premium holding.

[4spades]

I definately agree that this is hand he doesn't want to see a flop with. I thought a holding of A8-AJ or KQ,KJ was quite possible, as well as pocket pairs <JJ. I thought that I was most likely a coinflip and this was probably a situation where I'd be ok with that. Doubling up would put me almost even with the second stack and pretty much put me ITM. Although I'm out if I loose.

Would you take this coinflip, assuming he has the above holdings or pp <77, but there is a chance you could be severly dominated with a higher pp. Is getting into the money a better option waiting till the other small stack blinds out?

[binions]

If the "results are to follow," that must mean you called.

Assuming he is a typical big stack who likes to bully, I'd put him on an ace-x, or a pair. You are way ahead of 66-22, tied w/77, and way behind 88-AA. Given there are 6 ways to make a pair, you are way ahead of 30 hands, and way behind 42 hands, and tied with 1. (Note - 88 is the cutoff on 50-50 v. all other pairs)

As for the A-x hands, you are in a 11-10 coinflip with AK-A8, and 2.5 to 1 over A2-A7. 16 ways to make each hand. Coinflip with 96 hands, 2.5 to 1 against 88 hands (only 8 ways to make A7).

So, among Aces and pairs, you are a signigicant favorite over 118 hands, coinflip with 97 (more if big stack is playing KQ, KJ here), and way behind 42 hands.

Calling is certainly reasonable if the big stack is not a complete rock.

My educated guess is he had AQ or AJ.

[4spades]

Thanks for doing the numbers on that, great to know! The big stack has built up through several suspected steals, folding to my re-raise when I held A-Q.

I thought calling was reasonable here and anticipated two overs. Unfortunately I was shown 88 and I'm out. While cursing my stupidity, I attempted to console my dissapointment thinking that he would have made the same move with the hands that were mentioned where I was a slight favourite.

[lucas9000]

seems like a tough decision to me. if it were me, i'd put him on overcards or a small pocket pair. i'd probably think my chances were a coin flip, thinking that overcards are more probable based on the bet. the problem is that your stack isn't quite big enough to wait for the small stack to blind out.

here's the problem with folding and wanting to be the one putting in the bet: you're on a short stack with two much bigger stacks. whenever you're on the button or in the co position, you're going to have one of the big stacks in the blinds, making it harder to steal. you won't have time to wait for aces, so you'll likely end up putting your money in at about 50/50 anyway.

so, unless the small stack is a complete fool, i'd say call. you probably won't have a chance like this again, even though it's probably only a coin flip. tryign to outlast the short stack is a problem because you only have 600 more than him. if he doubles up or even just magically picks up a blind or two, you're in dire straits. i'd say call.

[chill888]

[ QUOTE ]
Thanks for doing the numbers on that, great to know! The big stack has built up through several suspected steals, folding to my re-raise when I held A-Q.

I thought calling was reasonable here and anticipated two overs. Unfortunately I was shown 88 and I'm out. While cursing my stupidity, I attempted to console my dissapointment thinking that he would have made the same move with the hands that were mentioned where I was a slight favourite.

[/ QUOTE ]

Even if he flashed me two over cards i would fold. Easy fold. Next hand please. If you call you are in trouble or coin flipping. the two guys not in the hand are high fiving when you call.


Small pairs are NOT calling hands.

gl

[binions]

77 is 52-55 percent favorite over AK, depending on the suits.

If you KNEW he had overcards, you would fold an 13-12 or 11-9 edge shortstacked?

I think doubling up in a "coin flip" 4 or 5 handed is one of the keys to making money in these tourneys.

Of course, I prefer to be the raiser with 77. Two ways to win. But calling here is not unreasonable if you knew he had overcards.

[4spades]

I absolutely agree that pulling a decent size pot or doubling up 4 or 5 handed is the way to win these tourneys. And it is quite possible that I won't be in a slight favourite/coinflip situation again. Of course, I would prefer to be the first in but folding here and pushing IF I get a reasonable hand on the button will undoubtedly get a call and just another coinflip. Only then I'll be pulling in less chips and be doubling up into a position that isn't even on the level with the big stacks. I think in this situation he would just call or min raise with a pocket pair QQ-AA, and would pull this move with all other of the suggested holdings. I just happened to see one of the 4 that killed me (88-JJ).

I knew this call was close, just wanted some other perspectives on this.

[Grivan]

Easy fold here. While it is true that you need to be willing to gamble on the button, calling large bets with the HOPE that you get a coinflip is not the way to go about it. If it were reversed and you pushed all in and got called by 88 then it is just tough luck, but I think it is a very foolish play to call this bet unless you have a reliable reason to think he is not going to have a pair over 7s. (This last sentence is of course impossible to know)

[chill888]

Personally I don't view him as short stacked

gl

[4spades]

I think it was more than a hope that led me to call, more of a reasonable calculation. Given the listing of holding already stated, I dominate 5 (22-66), dominated by 4 (88-JJ) and slightly better than a coinflip on the rest. I know there is no folding equity here but there wasn't that much to begin with given most pushes would get a call.

And 5.66 times the big blind isn't a short stack 5-handed?!?

[binions]

Chill said he would fold if he KNEW he was against overcards.

Your rationale for folding factors in the possibility of overpair, which makes the situation much more difficult.

If you KNEW you were 11-9 or 13-12 in that spot, you would fold? I wouldn't.

[binions]

[ QUOTE ]
Personally I don't view him as short stacked

gl

[/ QUOTE ]

fair enough. I suppose it depends on how fast the blinds are rising.

Given his chip level and assuming you don't KNOW the raiser has overcards (he could have a PP), which PP would you call with?

Clearly AA and KK. What's your answer for:

QQ
JJ
TT
99
88

[mikeyvegas]

[ QUOTE ]
Personally I don't view him as short stacked

gl

[/ QUOTE ]

LOL, he has less the 6x BB 4 handed. I would consider him short. Plus he does have the dead money from himself and sb to consider. Not sure if I'd make this call, but it wouldn't be an easy fold.