am i a maniac?

UB .10/.25 NL


The usual loose-passive game you find at UB. I'm in the middle with KdJs and everybody limps. I limp and 8 see flop of AT6 of diamonds. All check to me. I bet $2. Note that I have been semi- stealing alot of little pots for a couple of sessions with pot-sized flop bets. I don't do it with nothing generally, usually I have top pair, or a draw. But I do not hesitate to put it all in if re-raised and I have a big hand or draw. Anyway, LP raises $2. I started the hand with $25 and he has me covered. I re-ra all-in.


Comments? Am I a maniac or is this just good-agressive play?


Results later.

You have 4 outs in this particuler situation. This move is pure suicide if you are against a player who cannot release top pair.

Maybe you misunderstood the board. It is AT6 all diamonds and I have KdJs.


I have more than four outs.


Tuco

Yes, u have a gutshot. Big deal. No limit is all about getting ur money in when you have the best of it, making positive investments to trap opponents. This is a losing play and you will be giving money away against most players and with few outs. The bet can't make money b/c he either folds (and u net an extra $0) or you are called and lose. Play tight and smart, but don't make maniacal moves.


Jeff

I don't know if I would call it being a maniac. It is certainly aggressive. If your opponent has a made flush or a set he will certainly call. With two pair he most likely will call. The fact that he raised you says he most likely has one of the above.


Against hands he will certainly call:


Against a set you win 1/3.

Against a made flush you win 1/4.

Against 2 pair you win 2/5.


Against hands he may fold:


Top pair, big diamond you win 2/5.


So I think betting $23 into the $8 pot is too aggressive for this game. There are too many situations that require less risk for more gain.


Ken Poklitar

He actually has a gutshot and nut diamond draw.


Ken Poklitar

13 assuming opponent does not have flush already!


If he has flush then only 7 outs.


Ken Poklitar

Ken.


Excellent reply.


Put yourself in his shoes. What hands would you call all-in with? Made flush? Would be hard to call with less than ten high. Queen high is pretty automatic. Jack high is harder. I'm not sure I would call with 98d. Two pair? AT maybe, because he PROBABLY still has outs. No pre-flop raise, so he's not likely up against AA or TT. But A6? I sure wouldn't call with this hand. T6 is totally out of the question. Set? Well, don't see him having AA or TT. Even 66 is a tough call, IMO. I bet, and re-raised. Two indications of strength. He will be beat a majority of time in this spot, and if he is not, can surely be drawn out.


I posted this hand because it is a classic NL confontaion/decision hand. I'm a little disapointed in the feedback (except yours), as I was trying to get in a discussion of where the fine line of over-agressiveness begins. I'm not sure this is over the line. It is also a question of setting traps in the future. Since I have/will be playing at the UB NL tables, I am more likely to get called by all who saw the hand when I go ahead and put all my chips in when I do have the nuts.


I am relatively new to NL and have used the UB games as a crash course. The restricted buy-ins add an interesting wrinkle. I am much happier when I have doubled up and can push people around a little.


Results. Player had 66 and thought for a long time and called. He won the hand with his unimproved set.


Tuco

Anything except a set or a made flush will have a very hard time calling the bet. However, the pot isn't all that large at the time so if you do get called you generally are in trouble. If you're up against a made flush you only have 7 outs twice (and a win 28% of the time).


I'd say this was a tad overaggressive. Bump the pot a couple of bucks and I'd say it's a good play.


I'm actually not sure I would have called with 66 in that spot. Would you?


Sincerely, Andreas

Of course one of the keys in NL is to know your opponents. How will that particular opponent handle the situation. Although you or I may not call the huge raise with a baby flush, there are many players on UB that will. I could probably name several that would call if he only held the Qd.


Better luck next time /images/smile.gif


Ken Poklitar

I found this hand very interesting.


Let's do some math:

EV =

Pwin * (1-Pfold) * (Pot + BetFlop)

+ Pfold * Pot

- (1-Pfold) * (1-Pwin) * BetFlop


(I hope this is correct.) The absolute worst case (I think) is to be up against J9s (with the slim str8flush redraw). In this case you win 29% of the time. Given the original stats we get:


Pwin = 0.29

Pot = 8

BetFlop = 23


Setting EV > 0 and solving for Pfold we get:

Pfold > 0.52


So if he folds more then 52% of the time you're having the best of it. He probably folds more then this so, good play. If you add a couple of bucks to the pot on the flop and make it Pot = 12 you only him to fold 34% of the time. Although the larger the pot the less likely he is to fold.


Sincerely, Andreas

Tuco, I know players who would call this bet at UB with almost anything. Many players fear a small raise more than an allin bet, some seem to think that an allin overbet represents a bluff 95% of the time. Really it all dpends on the stack sizes to a degree, if you bet enough that a call was still diffiuclt, but were not risking a large amount then its ok. If you were the 2 biggest stacks on the table then its not a very good profit/risk ratio.

You don't want to be stuck on the turn with a fairly large stack. Suppose you just reraise small, say 10$ more, LP calls. Turn is a rag. What do you do now with your money? Push it as a big dog? Check and pray for a free card? If he sets you in, calling is just horrible on the turn.


The estimation above is based on the worst possible case. Some other cases:


66 needs to fold 33%

AT needs to fold 4% of the time. AQ (with Qs) needs to fold about 4% as well.

Against random ace (A8) you make money even if he calls.


Estimating the liklihood of these different hands given the action is tricky though. I still feel that it is a fairly solid play (although I would like a couple of more bucks in the pot).


Sincerely, Andreas

Just curious, what do you think your opponent would expect you to do with top pair?


leroy

Not a maniac.


Looks like a variant of "treat AKo as if it were AXs when the flop shows a flush for the Ace." You have the CARD that makes the nut flush, so the other guy can't be sure you don't _have_ the nut flush. It doesn't have to work but it sure works a great deal of the time. Your image, the way you have described it, may work against you. The fact that you are all-in and can't pound on him anymore may a call more attractive for your opponent. But the play does show a profit for some people. And another Diamond may show up. Or a Queen.


--

Will in New Haven