Turn raise - how often a semibluff? Poll

[TJD]

You are playing PP $5/$10 6 Max.

You bet 2nd pair HU on flop after raising PF with 99 from EP. You get called. You bet the turn and get raised.

There are 2 different boards:-

NO DRAW BOARD (well OK there is a str8 draw /images/graemlins/smile.gif)
K /images/graemlins/spade.gif8 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif2 /images/graemlins/club.gif4 /images/graemlins/heart.gif

DRAW BOARD
K /images/graemlins/spade.gif8 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif2 /images/graemlins/club.gif7 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

Assuming you know nothing about this player (i.e. assume an average/normal? PP player). On each board,how often does this raise mean you are behind?

[ALL1N]

The 7d hitting on the turn doesn't change it much at all. Perhaps you should make the draw present on the flop.

[fnord_too]

My experience in the 5/10 game is that turn raises are more often than not legitimate. Of course, there are individuals who will run pure bluffs or semi-bluffs here, but by and large I find that a turn raise means a made hand. (Note: Sometimes that hand is less than top pair, especially in a HU situation. Again, very player dependant.)

I have noticed a lot more aggressive play in the 10/20 game, and this is one of the things I am still trying to adjust to.

[Grisgra]

Ugh, fantastic question. I have a tough time believing that everyone at 5/10 is bluffing the exact correct % of the time based on Theory of Poker, but after a couple sessions that's how I'm starting to feel, and it's pissing me off greatly. I don't think that it's 65%+ of the time (actually, it probably is for the no-draw board), but I think it's enough that I'm losing money regardless of whether I call down or don't.

Key follow-up question that needs to be asked -- let's take your median % (say it's 65%) . . . based on two or three pot sizes, how often should you call down?

[Nemesis]

I call based upon how big the pot is and how strong MY hand is.

[DeucesUp]

Good question, but you posted the wrong percentages. 5/10 6max players are crazy, but no way they bluff turn raises more than 1/3 of the time. Especially on these boards without much in the way of semi-bluff opportunities.

I posted my guess of the breakdown of percentages for a slightly different hand in the other thread you poised this question on, "Another hand I'm not sure if I should be calling down".

[rodeoclown]

Bah! Ok, my votes are fubar, because I misread
the poll... multitabling will do that to ya!

I thought it was "how often is it a semibluff,"
not, "how often are you behind."

My bad.

[TJD]

Taking up politics? How does the fence feel /images/graemlins/smile.gif

The question gave your hand and the pot size (within 1/2 SB). Go on go for it /images/graemlins/smile.gif You know you are good enough

trevor

[TJD]

[ QUOTE ]
I posted my guess of the breakdown of percentages for a slightly different hand in the other thread you poised this question on, "Another hand I'm not sure if I should be calling down".


[/ QUOTE ]

This was a question aimed at Nate, who as you know is several leagues above me in experience. Nate had advocated calling down against an unknown with 2nd pair. However, this was HU after a CR on a board with the top card pairing AND with TWO flush draws. The CR often shows more strength but with trips possible and 2 FD to bluff at, I was curious as to how he would view the % in that case.

trevor

[TJD]

NP - perfection is for wierdos (and winning players /images/graemlins/smile.gif).

What would your answer have been if you had got it right?

trevor