Simple J8s hand

[Diplomat]

online 10-20, 5-handed, first hand, in the big blind.

I am dealt J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif. Two limpers, sb folds, I check.

The flop is K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif7/images/graemlins/heart.gif. I bet, both call.

The turn is the A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif. I bet, one call, last player raises, I call, guy in the middle calls.

The river is 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif. I bet.

Standard stuff, right?

-Diplomat

[Ulysses]

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Standard stuff, right?


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Yeah, standard 3-bet on the turn.

[Schneids]

A question for everyone that plays 10/20 6m:

How many players are needed to be seeing a flop before you'd consider betting out on this flop to be -EV, if ever? For instance, if there were 3 players plus you, given the way 10/20 plays, do you think your bet is going to set up winning the pot often enough, so that your fold equity can make up for the value you are losing when you do not have enough callers of your bet to make the draw-bet a +EV play (worded awkward)?

I feel people simply do not fold enough to warrant doing semi bluff betting more than occasionally unless you're against exactly 1 or 2 tight opponents and nobody else. However, I do feel semi-bluff check raising has a lot more power when you are able to check and see it get checked around to the last guy who will bet 95% of the time.

Sorry Diplomat this question/thought of mine does not specifically relate to your hand. W.r.t. it I think you must 3-bet because the middle guy will continue to come along a lot of the time and some of the time you will see the last player cap with a worse hand.

[TJD]

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I feel people simply do not fold enough to warrant doing semi bluff betting more than occasionally unless you're against exactly 1 or 2 tight opponents and nobody else.

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I do not play at 10/20 yet but at 5/10, this same issue was concerning me. I looked at my stats for winning the pot before showdown.

When I bet at the flop, I won just 18% of the time! If I repeated this on the turn I got a fold 8% of the time and the river brought in a massive 2%.
/images/graemlins/smile.gif

Now of course, sometimes you win when they fold (not often) and sometimes you improve to the best hand. Sometimes you even had the best hand to start with.

If we assume NO ONE folds

If a LONE opponent calls a flop bet when you have a FD (that we will assume wins if you hit) you gain an extra 1SB 1/3 of the time and lose an extra bet 2/3 of the time for a LOSS of 1/3SB

2 opponents is about breakeven and 3 show a profit.

However, there will, on occasions, be a win on the flop. Since 2 opponents and more we see no loss from the bet, we need to assume ONE opponent exactly

If the pot was unraised then we might just have 2SB in the pot and we would need a fold about 14% of the time and if it was raised we need about 11%.

However, this is a FD. Alter it to a weaker draw and the numbers will be much less appealing.

Quick and dirty analysis. Sorry if it is way out.

trevor

[chio]

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A question for everyone that plays 10/20 6m:

How many players are needed to be seeing a flop before you'd consider betting out on this flop to be -EV, if ever? For instance, if there were 3 players plus you, given the way 10/20 plays, do you think your bet is going to set up winning the pot often enough, so that your fold equity can make up for the value you are losing when you do not have enough callers of your bet to make the draw-bet a +EV play (worded awkward)?

I feel people simply do not fold enough to warrant doing semi bluff betting more than occasionally unless you're against exactly 1 or 2 tight opponents and nobody else. However, I do feel semi-bluff check raising has a lot more power when you are able to check and see it get checked around to the last guy who will bet 95% of the time.

Sorry Diplomat this question/thought of mine does not specifically relate to your hand. W.r.t. it I think you must 3-bet because the middle guy will continue to come along a lot of the time and some of the time you will see the last player cap with a worse hand.

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in a situation like this when i'm in the BB, 2 opponents i alsmot always bet. with up to 3 opponents, i usually bet out also, depending on how strong my draw is, aggression of opponents, etc.

this is because i usually bet out with a decent pair in this situation also, so that increases my chance of winning the pot this time, i think. i also check-fold a lot against 3 opponents with nothing or a very weak pair, and c/r a lot with very strong flopped hands.

interesting line you take to c/r the last guy, who often does bet. i think this move may be better in a bigger pot though, not these types of unraised 3-to-4-way pots. of course you run the risk of clearing the field and then him 3betting you or him calling and folding to your turn bet the times when you actually hit the flush.

i was just thinking of a related scenario the other day while reading feeney, where he says people bet out into the preflop raiser too much on like an AJ8 or KT4 board with a flush draw, likely getting raised AND clearing out the field which would have put in dead money for your draw every street.

i guess this is just another place in 6max where you have to perfectly balance your aggression and passivity. maybe everyone could start posting hands like these in the next few weeks and we could all figure out a best line?

ok that was a lot of words, sorry