AQs - too weak?

[joker122]

Party 10/20 6max 6 handed

I open raise in the CO with A/images/graemlins/spade.gif Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif. Only the SB, who is very loose with medium aggression calls.

Flop is K/images/graemlins/club.gif J/images/graemlins/spade.gif 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif
check, bet, call.

Turn is 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif
check, check.

River is an offsuit 8, bet, fold.

[MisterKing]

Why not semibluff with the four-flush, gutshot straight draw, and an over ace on the turn? Assuming he's got you beat, your straight and flush outs are 100% clean, and the ace doesn't look too compromised. That's 12-15 (and maybe 18 with the Q) easy outs IF he calls.

Assuming 15 clean outs, you're about 35% to draw out with one card to go. If he'll fold 10% of the time that you bet and calls while behind an additional 6% of the time, you're the favorite. Hell, your position gives you the luxury of cherry-picking the river... getting value when you do hit, and incurring no additional cost when you don't. Working in tandem, these two facts probably make a turn bet a highly +EV move.

Even if he raises your turn bet, a call by you *seems* to look ok to me (too tired to consider the %'s).

[joker122]

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Why not semibluff with the four-flush, gutshot straight draw, and an over ace on the turn?

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Well, the most important part of a semibluff is the bluff part. That is, for it to have any value there needs to be a decent chance your opponent will fold. My opponent will fold very rarely here. But you're probably right - I have way to many outs to be checking this turn HU.

[ QUOTE ]
Assuming 15 clean outs, you're about 35% to draw out with one card to go. If he'll fold 10% of the time that you bet and calls while behind an additional 6% of the time, you're the favorite.

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Good stuff.


By the way, with 12 outs to the nuts I *have* to call a CR. This is a deterent of betting the turn.

[samdash]

You should make this bet on the turn every time. You will sometimes have the best hand and hardly mind being check raised. Situations where you expect to have more like 4-7 outs are better for checking behind.

[joker122]

Agreed. It was a terrible check.

[Schneids]

I honestly don't know if I should even bother trying to answer these types of hands any more but here goes (due to table dynamics and table image weighing so heavily into the equation and in particular my table image being LAG most of the time):

Unless it's just because I'm a maniac I've been calling this on the river a majority of the time and I'm definitely beating bluffs enough to make it a profitable call.

I agree with the consensus w.r.t. betting the turn.

[Trix]

Checking this hand, intending to fold sucks most of the time. Whether you should check or bet depends on the opponent I guess, think I would bet most of the time here since he could fold a better hand, I have to call the river anyway and I dont think the chance of getting check-raised is very high.

[joker122]

[ QUOTE ]
I honestly don't know if I should even bother trying to answer these types of hands any more but here goes (due to table dynamics and table image weighing so heavily into the equation and in particular my table image being LAG most of the time):

Unless it's just because I'm a maniac I've been calling this on the river a majority of the time and I'm definitely beating bluffs enough to make it a profitable call.


[/ QUOTE ]

Wouldn't your lag image reduce bluffs since they figure they'll be called more?

[joker122]

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think I would bet most of the time here since he could fold a better hand

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This is almost an impossibility with this opponent.

[Trix]

k, missed your read. Bet cuz you could easily have the best hand instead. This is one of the guys who likes to chase them backdoor flush's right ?

Since you will have to call the river if you check behind, then it makes more sense to check the turn here as you can bet the river if you improve also.

I would have to think that I'll get check-raised very often to check behind here.

[joker122]

Sorry for this but...

These two statements do contradict eachother. Do you see why?

[ QUOTE ]
k, missed your read. Bet cuz you could easily have the best hand instead. This is one of the guys who likes to chase them backdoor flush's right ?

Since you will have to call the river if you check behind, then it makes more sense to check the turn here as you can bet the river if you improve also.


[/ QUOTE ]

[chio]

agree with sam. i bet the turn here every time HU. especially since you said your opponent is loose, so he doesn't necessarily have pair. so not only do you have a great chance for having the best hand, but with so many outs you don't really mind being checkraised.

given that you checked the turn, i might call the river here a lot too, especially with a non dangerous card falling

[Trix]

yep that was a typo. The second one should have been for bet aswell.