Another hand I'm not sure if I should be calling down

[jrobb83]

Opponent is unkown.

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is CO with Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif, Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
UTG calls, MP folds, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, Button folds, SB folds, BB calls, UTG calls.

Flop: (6.40 SB) K/images/graemlins/club.gif, 7/images/graemlins/club.gif, 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG checks, <font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB folds, UTG calls.

Turn: (4.20 BB) K/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
UTG checks, <font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">UTG raises</font>, Hero calls.

River: (8.20 BB) 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">UTG bets</font>, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 10.20 BB
<font color="green">Main Pot: 10.20 BB, between UTG and Hero.</font>

[Nate tha' Great]

Standard calldown against an unknown. A board-pairing turn will be bluffed at a very high percentage of the time by 6-max opponents.

[jrobb83]

Thanks Nate. I kinda figured, guy had AK here. I just haven't been shown ace high enough yet to have it reinforced.

[TJD]

Which is more common, the "bet from nowhere" or the CR as in this case. Also, against an unknown/average PP player what % would you split between the likelihood of them:-

a) NOT bluffing
b) Bluffing by betting out
c) Bluffing by CR

Thanks

trevor

[DeucesUp]

[ QUOTE ]
Which is more common, the "bet from nowhere" or the CR as in this case. Also, against an unknown/average PP player what % would you split between the likelihood of them:-

a) NOT bluffing
b) Bluffing by betting out
c) Bluffing by CR


[/ QUOTE ]

Good question, although a.) really should be two choices bet-out not bluffing and CR not bluffing. Even against an unknown, the percentages vary dramactically based on the board and the preflop action. Here, a board on the turn with 2/images/graemlins/spade.gifs and 2/images/graemlins/club.gifs makes a semi-bluff MUCH more likely.

Here's my guess:


bet out no-bluff - 55%
bet out bluff - 10%
CR no-bluff - 31%
CR bluff - 4%


For those about to criticize how I can be so exact about the "31%" instead of rounding to 30%, it's just about the ratio of bluffs/no-bluffs. I don't think a CR is a bluff 1 out of 6 times here (30% - 5%) but 1 of 8 sounds about right to me (31% - 4%)

[spider]

I'd call it down too.

And I'm not sure if this is a fair comparison, but I'm curious why there was so much agreement about folding in the KK hand of this other thread whereas no one is folding here:

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&amp;Number=1088326&amp;page=&amp;view=&amp;sb=5&amp; o=&amp;vc=1

[ QUOTE ]

Villian's numbers are 25/15.

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed)

Preflop: Hero is BB with K/images/graemlins/club.gif, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="666666">2 folds</font>, CO calls, Button calls, SB completes, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, CO calls, Button calls, SB folds.

Flop: (7 SB) 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif, T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, CO folds, <font color="CC3333">Button raises</font>, <font color="CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, Button calls.

Turn: (6.50 BB) A/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">Button raises</font>, Hero folds.


[/ QUOTE ]

Sure there are some differences, but similarities are:
(1) medium-big pot
(2) headsup
(3) scare card on turn and it seems reasonably likely raiser is bluffing at it

Again, sorry if it is not kosher to combine threads like this (I'm new here), but I was just struck by the similarities.

[jrobb83]

There are a few key differences that leads to a much lower possibility of a bluff in this hand.

First, in the KK hand, our hero showed much more aggression on the flop and turn. He not only bet, but 3-bet a raise, and then backed it up with a turn bet. This makes it much more likely hero actually has a hand.

In my QQ hand, I merely did what any preflop raiser would do when checked to on the flop, bet, and then bet again when checked to on the turn heads up. This line makes it far more likely I have nothing, and will give up the pot to a raise.

It is also mathematically more likely that the opponent in the KK hand has an ace, wheras in my QQ hand, there are two kings on the board making it far less likely that my opponent holds one.

Additonally, as Nate points out, a paired board is a target for bluffers. Wheras in the KK hand, opponents are not that likely to raise an ace on the turn into a preflop raiser that 3-bet the flop unless they have it.

[JimmyJazz1]

I think you have to call this down. UTG could easily be semibluffing with a spade draw. I've found that in the 5/10 sh game, some players love to bet agressively with flush draws by check raising, betting out, etc.

[spider]

[ QUOTE ]

First, in the KK hand, our hero showed much more aggression on the flop and turn. He not only bet, but 3-bet a raise, and then backed it up with a turn bet. This makes it much more likely hero actually has a hand.


[/ QUOTE ]
But not likely to have AK, right?

[ QUOTE ]

Additonally, as Nate points out, a paired board is a target for bluffers. Wheras in the KK hand, opponents are not that likely to raise an ace on the turn into a preflop raiser that 3-bet the flop unless they have it.

[/ QUOTE ]

I generally agree, it's just in that the guy with KK had really represented a big pair rather than AK based on the flop betting. So in that case, it did seem to me to be a place to bluff an ace.

But thanks for the answer, jrobb. That is helpful. I found the other thread confusing in that everyone seemed to think it was an easy fold and I still don't completely see it.