Monday night, Ravens/Chiefs, If trends continue...aayyyyyy...

[babigm]

After being the supreme and ultimate champion of champions in week 1 of the 3+1 challenge, I seem to have settled into a trend of mediocrity in the weeks after.

The past two weeks I have gone 2-2 each week, losing the $300 and $100 games, and winning the $400 and $200 games. This week I have lost the $300 and $100 games, and won the $400 game.

The Chiefs are my $200 pick.

Hurry! Hurry! Bet before it's too late!

The odds of this being wrong are like having a flopped set lose to a rivered straight...it never happens unless the fix is in. /images/graemlins/cool.gif

Okay, for serious reasons why, I despite the way they've played, the Chiefs have plenty of talent, and will be pissed that they're 0-3. Their O-line was very impressive in the Houston loss, Trent Green had all the time in the world to make bad throws. The Ravens haven't impressed me, I think their defense is hyped to be better then the numbers have actually shown, they're pretty much middle of the road. Their offense ain't so pretty either, I don't have the numbers but I'm pretty sure it's in the bottom 1/3, and Boller inspires no confidence in me. KC's defense is horrible, but if their offense gets any rhythm going and doesn't commit stupid turnovers, I'm betting KC would win a shootout. If it becomes a slugfest...well the Chiefs could get lucky once, and that's all they'd need. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[JesusSmurf]

Baltimore -6 and the under on 41. KC's defense will not be able to stop Jamal Lewis. Baltimore jumps out to a 10 point lead and then KC will have to play catch up, this is where Green makes a lot of bonehead mistakes. Once Baltimore has a secure lead they will run run run the ball and the clock. Baltimore wins 21 to 10. Good Luck. Jesus

[JesusSmurf]

Correction: Baltimore wins 24 to 10 is my final score.

[jayadd]

i see both field goal kickers getting alot of play here. 3rd and long will be a tired saying for mr madden.

score 20-13 ravens

[jedinite]

The first team to score 14 points wins this game in my opinion.

Despite the stellar Baltimore D, i actually forsee a situation where this could turn in to a shootout. I'm not guaranteeing it by any means, but there are certainly circumstances which could cause this game to go over.

Dante Hall has yet to return a touchdown on special teams, this could be a quick six here as the Ravens special teams is no where near as good as their defense.

We know KC has a terrible defense, but they still manage to produce turnovers (often the only thing saving them on defense last year).

If KC manages somehow to get out to an early lead (Holmes breaking a big one, Dante Hall returning, whatever) this game may very well turn in to a shootout. KC is definately going to overplay the run, and it could actually turn in to a shootout. Lewis can break the big run, and so can Holmes. The Chiefs don't have great downfield recievers but they do have a great O-line and a strong quarterback (even if he's looked mediocre so far). Dante Hall as a featured receiver is always a threat to take a short pass to the endzone (KC loves running him on the wideout screen).

I know this looks like a lock for the under, but that falls in to the "everyone I know thinks this is a lock" situation that always scares me away from the play.

I'm taking the Chiefs +6, for either a half unit or a full unit. I look for KC to win outright in a relative shootout (28-21), or to cover in a very close game (17-14 or 21-17) that turns into a defensive battle where both teams spend too much time trying to establish the run against the other (KC against Baltimore's talented D, Baltimore against KC stacking the line heavily).

I also expect two turnovers by Baltimore, probably in the secondary as the Chiefs overplaying the run leads to Boller shooting downfield. However, the poor KC secondary could easily get burned for a deep touchdown or two as the corners gamble on coverage with the safeties walked up.

[toby]

Ravens 2nd best running offense vs Chiefs 2nd worst run defense, in Baltimore. <font color="purple"> Ravens roll! </font>

[craig r]

why would you lay 6 on BAL? This line opened last week at 4.5, then was at 5 all the way until Friday. I am not saying take KC, but a 1.5 point move is not a smart play.

craig

[jedinite]

[ QUOTE ]
I look for KC to win outright in a relative shootout (28-21)

[/ QUOTE ]

Doh, so close. Final score, 27-24. Caps a nice weekend 4/5.

[jwvdcw]

I think the bookies made a killing on the over/under on this game. Everyone here seemed to love the under(not just in this thread).

[jedinite]

agreed, one of the main reasons above I suggested the game would go over...

Its been said here many times, if everyone around thinks the play is a sure lock, it probably deserves at least a strong look in the other direction....

[babigm]

Yeah, I think that has some merit, but I think there were reasons to take the Chiefs other then public opinion. I'm pretty satisfied with my analysis above, hopefully I can be that successful with my other picks.

In this very thread, where I said I thought the Ravens defense lives more by reputation then what the numbers show, people were still talking about their superb defense. I think it's important to know what the conventional wisdom is, see how the number is adjusted for that, and adjust your picks. It may still be for the popular pick, it may be against, but I think you have to almost play devil's advocate with yourself to make sure your pick is solid instead of just popular.

[jedinite]

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah, I think that has some merit, but I think there were reasons to take the Chiefs other then public opinion.

[/ QUOTE ]

I most certainly did as well - check my three paragraph analysis of why KC would win a couple posts up.

I was talking about public perception re: the over/under, not in regards to the game itself.

/images/graemlins/smile.gif