AA in BB, Bet the Flop or Check Raise? (2/4 Live Game)

[DonT77]

2/4 Live Game - No Fold'em Hold'Em.

Hero is in BB with A /images/graemlins/club.gifA /images/graemlins/heart.gif

UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, folded to SB who calls, Hero raises, called to SB who folds.

6 players to see the flop, pot = $26 (13 sB).
Flop: K /images/graemlins/diamond.gifQ /images/graemlins/diamond.gif8 /images/graemlins/spade.gif

SB checks, what would you do here? Bet out or check-raise? Assume that UTG+1 will always bet if it is checked to him, and assume that anybody who calls UTG+1's $2 bet will also call a $2 raise (those are my very reliable reads).

Bet out here or check raise and why?

[jluker7]

Bet, Hope he raises so you can Isolate with him, then its easy money = )

The problem with check raising here, is it wont accomplish anything.. he bets they all call, you raise they all call. Just builds a massive pot.

[bdk3clash]

Given the probable flop action I think checkraising is better than betting out. You're not really in a position to protect your hand given your position relative to the likely flop bettor, so I'd just jam the pot since you're likely getting the best of it on this flop.

A lot of this depends on how loose your opponents are with flop calls, but they're probably not making a big mistake with any piece of the board or draw to call your first bet if you bet out.

I'm not sure if it's a mistake in the TOP sense that they're committing to calling 2 SBs once they call UTG+1's first bet, but it's a mistake nonetheless, so I'd gladly make everyone pay 2 SBs when I'm likely to be getting the best of it.

Iff you just bet out and get a few callers, the pot is going to be big enough going into the turn (~10 BBs or so) that you're not really able to force anyone with a 5-out two pair/trips draw into an incorrect call (for 1 BB) on the turn or face them with 2 BBs cold since the likely aggressor is directly to your left, so I'm fine with a pot on the turn that's a few BBs bigger, even if it means I have sacrificed the ability to protect my hand somewhat.

There's not much of an advantage checkraising the flop in terms of protecting my hand, but I do it anyway to play for a bigger pot those times I end up ahead after the river.

[jluker7]

That Board is Terrible, any diamond cracks your hand, along with a 9 10 or J. Even if you hit the ace your hand can still loose to the straight. I think betting, hoping the player raises is the only option..

[bdk3clash]

[ QUOTE ]
Bet, Hope he raises so you can Isolate with him, then its easy money = )

[/ QUOTE ]

Given the read, I didn't think this was likely to happen. Plus, even calling 2 cold isn't really going to be much of a mistake with >4-outers and up given the pot size. They'll be getting like 17:2 or more to call on the flop if you bet and UTG calls and UTG+1 raises.

[ QUOTE ]
The problem with check raising here, is it wont accomplish anything.. he bets they all call, you raise they all call. Just builds a massive pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you're probably getting an overlay on all the flop action here, so given that I'm fine jamming and playing for a big pot here. It's kind of like ramming and jamming on a draw here--you're drawing to runner-runner blank-blank, and I think this happens enough that you're getting an overlay on the flop action since there are some likely weak draws out there (gutshots, two-pair/trips draws, pair + backdoor flush draws, etc.)

The only way I could see protect my hand here is to check the flop intending to call a bet and try to checkraise the turn, but there's a bunch of cards that could come on the turn that make this kind of hairy, and someone might wise up and take the free card on the turn anyway.

I might not be creative enough, but I'm not seeing a way to effectively protect our hand here, so I'm just going to go ahead and vote for stubborn aggression and finger-crossing.

[Victor]

Bet out and hope that UTG +1 raises to thin the field. Bet out because your hand is not strong enough to trap players with. If you were sure the bet would come from someone in late position a checkraise would be a good play, but all it does here is commit everyone to a big pot that could have many draws.

[jluker7]

Thats true, I guess crossing your fingers might be the only way to win the pot.

[I Play 2 Ski]

Bet the flop. If a rag comes on the turn check raise to protect your hand, if the bet comes from a LP. If not just call. if another rag comes on the river, bet, otherwise check and call.

Who agrees, disagrees with this?

[crockett]

Post deleted by crockett

[bdk3clash]

"You have Top Pair Top Kicker."

No you don't. On this board that would be AK.

[I Play 2 Ski]

WHAT, That is a scary flop, there are tons of cards that could beat you. Check raising on the flop is not going to isolate and they are going to chase the draws.

[jluker7]

[ QUOTE ]
and their are very few scare cards that you fear.

[/ QUOTE ]

Im afraid of any /images/graemlins/diamond.gif, along with any Jack, Ten, Nine, Even an Ace can make you a looser.
Thats quite a few cards to fear... This is far from a comfortable position to be in with aces. If you had a maniac in later position, I would definately check raise.

[Victor]

Hello BDK,

Would it not be better to wait till the turn for a checkraise if a safe card hits?

[crockett]

O.k. I slowed down and thought this through. And I agree with the other (which is why I deleted my orginal post). I think this is case where a C/R would be no good.

Betting out is the best option. Hopefully you make the draws face two cold.

[I Play 2 Ski]

Thats what I am thinking

[BigBaitsim (milo)]

Bet and hope. It's all you can do in this situation.

[bdk3clash]

[ QUOTE ]
Hello BDK,

Would it not be better to wait till the turn for a checkraise if a safe card hits?

[/ QUOTE ]

Who knows what a safe card on the turn is? Any /images/graemlins/diamond.gif on the turn that you try to checkraise could easily get checked through (if they don't have a flush yet but have now picked up a /images/graemlins/diamond.gif draw), or 3-bet by a made flush. Ditto Broadways, gutshots, two-pair/trips draws, etc.

I guess where I differ from the prevailing opinion on this one is that I don't think betting out protects our hand on the flop at all. Best case scenario is that we bet, UTG folds, and UTG+1 calls. That means that the first coldcaller out of MP1, MP2, and MP3 is getting an immediate 16:2/8:1 to call, and any additional coldcallers even better odds than that, and has great position on us to extract multiple bets on the turn or river.

What draw is incorrect to call here?

So even in our best case scenario in terms of hand protection, we're not really effectively protecting our hand. And, more importantly, I think that a much more likely flop result is a bunch of callers, not a raise from UTG+1.

I'd checkraise because I'm getting the best of it and I'd rather have flop callers put in a guaranteed (according to the read) 2 SBs on this flop than likely put in 1 SB on the off chance that UTG+1 will raise, which probably doesn't do much in terms of hand protection anyway. Yes, it might protect our hand better than checkraising and building a pot on the flop does, but in the long term I'll sacrifice the rare chance to barely make it wrong, if at all, for draws to call on the flop for a guaranteed extra SB out of every flop caller.

After that, I'd play poker.

[junkmail3]

[ QUOTE ]
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, folded to SB who calls, Hero raises, called to SB who folds.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
SB checks, what would you do here?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm confused.




Anyway, it might not matter.
Did anyone talk about that flop missing everyone and everyone checking to get the free cards? Who knows, but I will.

You check, everyone checks, free card. A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 9, T, J, A (though much less) all could 'hurt' here, and no ones going away for a check raise with a flush or OES draw. They need 5:1 at worst and would be getting that easily.

I bet and hope for the best.

[bdk3clash]

[ QUOTE ]
Did anyone talk about that flop missing everyone and everyone checking to get the free cards? Who knows, but I will.

[/ QUOTE ]

From the original post:

[ QUOTE ]
Assume that UTG+1 will always bet if it is checked to him

[/ QUOTE ]

[junkmail3]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Did anyone talk about that flop missing everyone and everyone checking to get the free cards? Who knows, but I will.

[/ QUOTE ]

From the original post:

[ QUOTE ]
Assume that UTG+1 will always bet if it is checked to him

[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]

I knew I had to be missing something. I was too confused by the SB I skipped stuff.

[beginner]

based on your reads, check-raise... that will not only build up the pot, but also will allow you to see how everyone else acts before you make your move...

[TheHip41]

[ QUOTE ]
Would it not be better to wait till the turn for a checkraise if a safe card hits?

[/ QUOTE ]

Have you played 2/4 hold em live? There are no "safe cards" /images/graemlins/smile.gif If the 2 of nothing falls, it might look like a safe card, but now that old granny with Q2 has two pairs. Just c/r the flop, build a pot, you win this more often than anyone else, might as well make it a huge one.

[turnipmonster]

In a perfect world, I would want to force people to put in the most amount of money the most amount of times on the flop I could. it's not the best flop but AA has a lot of pot equity here, and you want people drawing to put a lot of money in the pot. after all, what matters is that your overlay is bigger than theirs for most draws.

sometimes you can force them to call two cold, but here you probably can't (he didn't say anything about UTG+1 raising, just that he would bet if checked to), so my vote is for the installment plan. hopefully some yahoo in LP goes for the free card raise so I can 3 bet. If UTG+1 is that predictable I would check blind every hand I was in a pot with him. this is a situation where you can really punish predictability methinks.

I mean, we all jam flush draws vs. many opponents because we have a lot of outs. how can you not jam a hand that has this kind of equity?

--turnipmonster

[DonT77]

I should have mentioned that UTG+1 will bet if it is checked to him - because he thinks he wins enough pots by doing so, but he won't raise unless he clearly thinks he is ahead (set, trips, 2 pair, etc.). So betting into him and hoping for a raise will not likely work for me here.

After reading these posts, I agree with the check-raise / ram & jam, Here's why-

Any Ace (2), King (3), Queen (3), Jack (4), Ten (4), Nine (4), Eight (3), or remaining Diamond (4) is a scare card for me - that's 27 cards out of 47 remaining (57%) that could come on the turn or river and beat me (Granted an Ace gives me a full-house draw, and not every one of these cards will actually beat me; however, OTOH - like somebody said - even a Two on the turn could beat me in this kind of game). My rough math tells me that I have a 43% chance of surving the turn and a 43% chance of surviving the river - meaning that I'll win this hand about 18% of the time. I think that makes jamming correct against 5 probable callers (I'm on the 'blank-blank draw' as somebody called it).

Results-

I did check the flop, and UTG+1 (as predicted) did bet, it was called to me - I raised, and everybody called.

6 Players to the turn, pot = $50 (25 SB)
blank

I bet, 3 callers, 2 folds.

4 Players see the river
of J /images/graemlins/heart.gif

I lost to 2 pair, Kings and Jacks.

In a related note - on another hand I raised UTG PF with AA and lost when 1 of 3 callers hit 2 pair on the flop with J6s.

I also lost with AK to AT with AA on the flop when a T hit the river, and I lost with 33 with a 663 flop to 67 when a 7 hit the river. In all I lost 80BB on Sat/Sun - my worst weekend ever! That's cards for you. /images/graemlins/crazy.gif

Thanks for all of the responses.
-Don

[kevyk]

I may have missed the boat with this thread, but it strikes me that there is a third option here: checking and calling.

This situation seems familiar to one described by Ed Miller in SSH. I can't recall it exactly, but the Hero had something like AT with a T-high, coordinated board.

His recommendation (again, to the best of my recollection) was not to raise on the flop, but to call and go for a check-raise on the turn.

His reasoning for this play was that a hand like TPTK with so many overcards and so many possible draws facing it had a smaller Pot Equity edge than, say, Aces with the same board because of the overcard threat. But if a blank fell on the Turn, the Pot Equity of such a hand increases dramatically. Also, the smaller pot makes continuing to draw unattractive.

After puzzling this situation over, here is how I would handle the flop:

1. Check. Betting does nothing, as UTG will do that for you and is unlikely to raise (this was the read of the original poster). You have effective position on the likely bettor; use it.

2. If lots of players call, you must conclude that your Pot Equity edge is small. Any card over 10 and any diamond could spell disaster. If a blank hits, check-raise based on your improved Pot Equity.

3. If only a couple of players call, you probably DO have a legitimate Pot Equity edge. Raise and hope your hand holds up.

[DonT77]

In the check-call scenario, we'll have the same $26 in before the flop, and $38 rather than $50 after the flop. If the turn goes like it did (a rag), then I'll check, UTG+1 will lead out instead of me, we might get 3 callers instead of 2 (since UTG+1 bets out a lot), I'll raise, and we'll get maybe 3 callers - so lets call this 9BB * $4 = $36 for a pot of $74 ATT rather than $66 in the CR scenario - I like it. And, if a scare card hits on the turn, you can check-fold and save the $2 flop raise.