Tough Spot vs. The Chip Monster

[Cleveland Guy]

$10+1 Multi, top 20 place, 220 entered, down to 60 left.

I am in 12th place with about 7,500 chips. The Chip leader with 20K, and 2nd place with 14K are at my table. Blinds are 150/300.

I am dealt A /images/graemlins/club.gif K /images/graemlins/club.gif

1 Fold, UTG+1 (chip leader) calls, 3 Folds, I raise to 1,000. Folded to CO (2nd in chips) who calls. Blinds fold and chip leader calls.

So it's me against the 2 chips leaders. From what I have seen while we have been at the same table, they are aggressive, but not out of line. The chip leader had a nice triple up with a flopped flush against 2 sets.

Anyways- I'm in this hand against the 2 chip leaders.

Flop comes 3 /images/graemlins/club.gif 4 /images/graemlins/heart.gif 5 /images/graemlins/club.gif

Giving me the inside wheel draw, nut flush draw, and 2 overcards.

Chip leader opens for 2,500 (pot was about 3,500).

What's my action?

[Cleveland Guy]

Please also reply with a reason for your answer if you wish.

This one really had me torn.

[RobGW]

I would push. You have as many as 15-18 outs which would make you at least even money, maybe a favorite. I cant imagine folding this, and calling leaves you with 4000 and maybe having to call again on the turn. Its a tough spot to be in, drawing for your tournament life, but if you win this pot you are the chip leader.

[Rocaix]

Calling is the worst option here, you essentially pot-commit yourself and have little fold equity on turn.

I would put UTG+1 on a medium pocket pair, possibly overcards, seems like he wanted to see a cheap flop and he comes out firing figuring both you and CO whiffed at the flop.

I think the best option is to push here you're still far from the money, and given that kind of flop I think all your outs are live.
If you triple through here, your chip leader and have a clear road to the final table. If they fold, you pick up a decent-sized pot.

Folding isn't horrible since you still have enough chips to make a run later, although I think this opportunity to double/triple up is too good.

[Sam T.]

Push.

It is possible that the chip leader has a pocket pair, but it seems equally reasonable to think that he whiffed, and is trying to beat the rest of y'all to the pot.

You can't call, for the reasons mentioned by others: You'll have decimated your stack, and you have more outs than God. Even if you prompt a fold, you've just added significantly to your stack at a crucial point in the tournament.

Folding is an option, and might have been the right choice if the leader had pushed in front of you. But here you've got enough folding equity to push yourself.

How'd it go?

[br549007]

fold.. you took your shot and missed the flop...they can afford to play a draw you cannot

[fnord_too]

I push because I think it is very much +EV (both in terms of TC and cashing). The all in should clear out the CO, and may fold utg. Worst case is you are up against a set, and are about a 2-1 dog. If you are up against an overpair like TT, you are better than a 60/40 favorite here. Your hand is too strong to lay down, and calling puts you in a bad spot if you miss the turn and are bet into. Push and make the others decide if they want to risk a big chuck of their stacks to continue, you will never be in too bad of shape if you get called.

[fnord_too]

[ QUOTE ]
fold.. you took your shot and missed the flop...they can afford to play a draw you cannot

[/ QUOTE ]

His draw here is a favorite against most made hands, and is not in bad shape against top set (and in even better shape against the nut straight). In fact, the only hands he is losing too right here are not very likely with the pre flop action.

I would not say that he missed the flop: nut flush draw + gutshot + two overcards (which would give him TPTK if he hits) is hitting the flop pretty hard in my book. I certainly don't think calling is an option, but I think he is giving up far too much by folding here.

[gergery]

I flat call this.

If you push, chip leader need to call 5k to win 13.5k so I don’t think you have a lot of folding equity. But if you think he’ll respect your push then I’d do that. But since if you hit your flush/straight you are likely to win the pot, allowing 2nd chip leader in doesn’t hurt you that much, and may be more EV+. So the more likely a flat call will be to encourage 2nd chip lead to come in, the more likely i am to call.

And if you flat call, 2nd lead folds, and chip lead pushes the turn, you will risk 5k to win 8.5k having up to 20 outs so even calling there is not too terrible a fallback scenario.

--Greg

[Superfluous Man]

[ QUOTE ]
fold.. you took your shot and missed the flop...they can afford to play a draw you cannot

[/ QUOTE ]
He's ahead of most conceivable draws they may have, except 65 where the 6 is a club, or 66 where one is a club (this isn't so much a draw, per se, but even here it's a coinflip). If he pushes, he will likely have the best of it, unless he's unlucky enough to be up against a set, a made straight, or pocket aces. And even then he isn't in ridiculously bad shape. At worst, he'll be about a 2:1 dog (3:1 if he's up against exactly 7c 6c).

To me, the betting indicates a smallish overpair or perhaps high cards, maybe even two high clubs, both of which would possibly call his reraise. I mean, he's a 3:2 favorite against QQ here. That's the kind of edge you can't pass up.

And even if they don't fold, he still wins a sizeable pot. Thus, pushing seems right here to me, unless he's got such a great read that he can put his opponent on a set, a straight, or aces.

[PuckNPoker]

Im new so I will add in my thought process and hope for a critique.

I call. I read him either having a low pair (22-TT), Axs, or suited connector and he has hit at least a little. The problem with pushing I think is you will only get called by pretty good hands (sets, made straight) yes you may chase out an overpair but im not sure it is worth the risk when it is your whole stack. If i had to put him on a smaller range of card I would say A6,55, 66, 56s, or 67s. So I think your 4 straight outs are counterfeited (except for the set).

[hurlyburly]

I'd put him on any overpair.
There are just too many possible outs for this one to laydown. 9 for the flush, possibly any A or K for 6 more, 3 for the straight. It might be a tad optimistic, but that was a really good flop for you. He might have just been making a stab too, since he has the chips to push around, and let you have it without a showdown.

[fnurt]

[ QUOTE ]
You can't call, for the reasons mentioned by others: You'll have decimated your stack, and you have more outs than God. Even if you prompt a fold, you've just added significantly to your stack at a crucial point in the tournament.

[/ QUOTE ]

This point prompted me to wonder: Just how many outs does God actually NEED?

[JARID]

Guy,

Call the weak-tight police for all those that want to call or fold. Jeesh. /images/graemlins/ooo.gif
As it has been pointed out ad naseum you have tons of outs and are either a favorite or at worst a slight dog in the hand.
The bigger implication of this hand is that you have a chance to double and maybe triple up and take the chip lead with what is in all liklihood the best hand. Yes, you could go bust and if cashing in a tourney like this is important to you then fold I suppose, but I gotta think you have your sight set on #1.

Calling is horrible. What if the turn is a blank? You're gonna have to call again to see the river, or you fold with a now decimated stack.

BTW, anybody think he should raise a little more pf?? How did it turn out?

-Jarid

[JARID]

[ QUOTE ]
This point prompted me to wonder: Just how many outs does God actually NEED?

[/ QUOTE ]

Perhaps we should consult David Sklansky on this one?? /images/graemlins/smile.gif

-Jarid

[trevor]

"The problem with pushing I think is you will only get called by pretty good hands."

Fact of the matter is that he's in good shape against those good hands, especially for the price he's getting. Early position has a hand that can stand a raise pre-flop. 88-JJ (Although if he's crafty he has Presto). Push it and pray, especially if you want to win the tournament.

[BS Yee]

My 2 chips worth . . .

Push. You have many, many outs and if you fold or call, it'll be that much harder to come back in the tourney. Now is your best shot at it.

[gergery]

The only thing that’s horrible here is dismissing a call as horrible without thinking this thru. While I agree that in many to most scenarios Pushing is the correct play, there are a substantial number of scenarios where you want the 2nd opponent to stay in the hand, and the best way to accomplish that is by calling.

These arise mainly when the second opponent takes more EV away from the 1st opponent than he does from you, or when you have little folding equity vs. the chip leader.

And if the turn card is a blank, then it was going to be a blank whether you pushed or called so that’s irrelevant to the decision unless that card affects how the others play (which seems unlikely here given the pot: stacks ratio)

--Greg

[RobGW]

Interesting points. I agree that he probably has little fold equity. However, I would think he would want the 2nd guy to get out to maximize his chances of winning when an A or K hits. If he lets the 2nd guy stay with one pair, then he proceeds to hit a 2nd pair on the turn, his A and K outs are now dead. If the 2nd guy is in there with a higher straight draw, his straight outs are now dead also. I think the pot is big enough as it is, and he should now try to maximize his chances of winning it.

[JARID]

[ QUOTE ]
These arise mainly when the second opponent takes more EV away from the 1st opponent than he does from you, or when you have little folding equity vs. the chip leader.


[/ QUOTE ]



Gergery,

I respect your posts, so I knew there was something I was missing. Given the third player's flat call he might have a middling pair as well and thus might come along for the ride.

I'm kinda stuck here now. Ok, what would you do if you were the third player and had a middling pair? Overcards? Being able to narrow the third players range of hands seems important suddenly, right?

-Jarid

edit: Folding is still horrible. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[Potowame]

by calling are you thinking folding to a blank or seeing it to the river. I would think if you just flat call here you would almost have to see the turn and river. But I guess if you call both you are risking the same , but if you can get the 3rd player to come along the chip EV is much higher, if you hit.

[Potowame]

1 he can make it hit on the river. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[gergery]

Hey Jarid thanks for your note. Sorry, didn’t mean to come off as jerky. I agree that folding is clearly much more horrible than saying a call is horrible /images/graemlins/wink.gif

Yeah, it gets complicated quickly. I’m bored at work so was noodling on different hands. I’d guess the range of hands as something like this, with how often they are dealt:
Overpair – 36 ways (7-Q)
Pair/Draw – 18 ways (22,66,32s,65s)
Sets/2pair - 16 ways (3,4,5, 54s, 53s,43s)
Straight – 8 ways (76s, A2s)
Pair+A 8 ways (A5s, A4s, A3s)
Suited conn – 5 ways (QJc – 87)
Draw+A – 3 ways (A6s)

It got too complicated so I stopped there. But it seems clear that a second opponent is likely to only cut down on 4-6 of your outs, which reduces your chance of winning by ~1/3rd, while he increases the amount you can win by 50%. Net, EV+

It seems as tho the real question is here: Do you want the hands that hang in the balance to fold to a push, or call your call? Those hands are the 77, QJs, A4s, 75s type hands. And I think your EV is higher having those hands (and their chips) in.

Still comes down to how often chip leader will fold to a push, and how loose a caller 2nd chip leader is. Push may still be better play, but I think calling is decent option. And if you call, you are pretty committed thru the river, but that shouldn’t be an issue since pushing obviously commits you too.

--Greg

[betgo]

Got to push on the semibluff with nut flush draw, straight draw, and two top overcards.

Plus you have two big stacks who may be playing loose and would probably try to run you off the hand on the turn.

[Ghazban]

So are you saying to just call, then call again if a blank hits on the turn and you get bet into again? If you make your flush on the turn, your opponents probably won't call your bet then whereas, if you are all in on the flop, you're guaranteed to get paid off when one of your many outs hit. I think I see what you're saying about keeping the third player in as well, but I don't know if either of them will pay you off when you make your hand whereas you might get more money if even only 1 of them calls your all-in on the flop.

Going all in on the flop also gives you the opportunity to win the pot WITHOUT making your hand; something that cannot happen if you just call. I think in a tournament, you'd rather win the pot and, in a cash game, you might be better off calling and encouraging the 3rd player to come along.

[Cleveland Guy]

Or- HOW I F-ed this up.

I was really unsure here. If it was a smaller stack, it seemed like an easy push, mostly cause I would have had the guy covered, or at least enough to decimate him if he called and lost. But knowing that the Chip leader had made a move, and the 2nd guy behind me was still to act made me tighten up.

I let all my time go down, and finally hit the call button in a panic so I wouldn't auto fold. CO folded behind me.

Turn was an offsuit Q. He bet 5,000 (enough to put me in). I folded. He turned up a set of 4s.

I was left with just about 4,000 left.

Thanks for all the help - I feel I got outplayed by the bigstack here.

[JARID]

[ QUOTE ]
Sorry, didn’t mean to come off as jerky. I agree that folding is clearly much more horrible than saying a call is horrible


[/ QUOTE ]

No no, not at all. If anything, I should have read your post in more detail instead of jumping to conclusions. In my mind all-in was the only move and I was abit pig headed about it.

Having said that, I still think I push. If there were more people left to act then maybe I just call. However, with the pre-flop raisor being bet into and calling, this third guy I think is going to need something pretty solid to stick around and thus he probably calls anyway if hero pushes.

If hero just calls here and the third guy folds, hero has just given up what little folding equity he had here in somewhat of a mea culpa.

Gosh, I think reads are really important here. What would this guy need to call a guy who just raised a limper pre-flop? Yep, given the information here, I still push.

What do you think? (as if this rousing argument is swaying anybody. /images/graemlins/laugh.gif)

-Jarid

[JARID]

I give this guy credit for not getting too clever with his set and putting you to the test. Did you reach any resolution on what you would have preferred doing?

Good hand to post. Thanks.

-Jarid

[Sam T.]

[ QUOTE ]


This point prompted me to wonder: Just how many outs does God actually NEED?



[/ QUOTE ]

I'm no theologian, but I think there are two possible answers:
1) God has the immortal nuts.
2) He only needs one out, and he always gets it on the river. So the next time you get a bad beat, you know why.

[Cleveland Guy]

Good Question. The more I think about it - I think I should have folded. If I was first to act, I would have let out a good bet, maybe even a push. But given that he went first, unless he was on a pure bluff, or a worse flush draw, I don't see a hand I'm not more than a 60/40 favorite against. If he has a pair I'm drawing to 15-18 outs 2 times. Which is only about 60-65%. If he has the straight I'm drawing to 9 outs, and if he has a set, possibly less (cause my flush could pair the board).
So using probility. Let's say:

20% he is on a bluff/worse draw (I'm about 80% Fav)
50% he hit a pair on the board (or has a PP) (I'm about 65%)
20% he has a set (I'm about 25%)
10% he has the straight (I'm about 30%)


=(.2*.8) + ( .5*.6) +(.2 *.25) +(.1 * .30) = .55

If I push he has pot odds to call on anything but a pure bluff. Do I want to risk my position on a 55% edge vs. a guy who can take me out?

Is this weak tight thinking, or will a I find a better spot where I am more than a slight favorite?

Edited to add: too bad I don't have this much time at the tables. I still need to work on figuring this out quicker.

[Bernas]

How can you fold in this situation. You are more than likely the favorite here. Jump at the chance to get your money in. PUSH

[Bernas]

I definitely don't put him on 56s or 67s.
I say mid pair or high over cards. Either of which, I like my chances here.

[Bernas]

Knowing the results you can easily stay fold. I still say this is a spot where you want to push.

You say 20% he has a set. That may be true. I don't think I would put him on a set here though even though that's what he had. I'd say 90% of people who hit a set here don't bet like he did when he hit it. Not saying what he did was wrong. In fact I like to come out firing with a set. However, I don't believe that is how most players play this.

[Cleveland Guy]

I disagree. On a draw heavy board with the Pre Flop Raiser yet to act I think that leading out with a set is a very normal action. He also bet almost the pot, making it expensive for anyone to hit their draw. The last thing you want with a set here is a free card to give someone the flush, or 4 straight on the board.

I was thinking set or PP when he made the bet.

[Bernas]

[ QUOTE ]
On a draw heavy board with the Pre Flop Raiser yet to act I think that leading out with a set is a very normal action.

[/ QUOTE ]

If by normal you mean that the majority of players would do it, I disagree with you.

I definitely agree that it is the right thing to do. I would even go so far as to say that it might be the "normal" thing to do amongst 2+2ers. However I still believe the majority of people in a $10 MTT would not play the hand this way (the proper way).

[Che]

[ QUOTE ]
Do I want to risk my position on a 55% edge vs. a guy who can take me out?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes.

[ QUOTE ]
Is this weak tight thinking,

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes.

[ QUOTE ]
or will a I find a better spot where I am more than a slight favorite?

[/ QUOTE ]

You have 6500 left and will win 6000 uncontested if both fold. Won't happen much but it will sometimes happen.

If called, you double your 6500 and get 2500 in dead money (against one caller) or triple your 6500 plus 2500 extra if both call 55% of the time.

If you think you're going to get a better opportunity any time soon, your opponents must be really bad.

Later,
Che

[JARID]

Clev,

[ QUOTE ]
Is this weak tight thinking, or will a I find a better spot where I am more than a slight favorite?


[/ QUOTE ]

Eh, I think he has a pair, or is bluffing here just as much as he has a set. How is there really gonna be a better spot? You're at the table with the two chip leaders.

[ QUOTE ]
If I push he has pot odds to call on anything but a pure bluff. Do I want to risk my position on a 55% edge vs. a guy who can take me out?


[/ QUOTE ]

I would. Busting out is a concern, but I also look longingly at those chips that he holds and I want them over in my stack. Wouldn't it diminish his standing to lose this pot to you?
Furthermore, from a table image perspective I want to put these guys on notice that betting into me after I have raised pf is not without its set of dangers.
I know, I know, what good is my table image if I am busted out? Its not a pissing contest etc, but as you yourself calculated, there is edge here.
If you were afraid of being busted out by the chip leader, why enter the pot to begin with? I know it seems like an odd question, but what do you do when the flop comes down

K 9 /images/graemlins/club.gif 4 /images/graemlins/club.gif and he bets into you?

-Jarid

[Cleveland Guy]

[ QUOTE ]

You have 6500 left and will win 6000 uncontested if both fold. Won't happen much but it will sometimes happen.

If called, you double your 6500 and get 2500 in dead money (against one caller) or triple your 6500 plus 2500 extra if both call 55% of the time.

If you think you're going to get a better opportunity any time soon, your opponents must be really bad.

Later,
Che

[/ QUOTE ]

Che- I see your points and thank you for them. The one thing I'm still unsure of is this. If I am left with 6500 chips is it really that bad of a place? I still have 22xBB, and there is plenty of time to go before the bubble where I could double up. It's not so much that my table is that bad, but there were still some bad players left that I feel I could have buult back up with other hands.

[Che]

[ QUOTE ]
If I am left with 6500 chips is it really that bad of a place?

[/ QUOTE ]

22BB is a very playable amount, but 8525 is better and that's what you're giving up by folding based on your read that you're a 55% favorite (assuming the bettor calls and the other guy folds - I'm not going to do the three-way math). 2025 is a 31% increase in your stack. Surely, the bad players aren't so bad that you can bypass a 31% increase.

Later,
Che