Final table situation

[Martin Aigner]

Final table, NLHE. We are 10handed, two top pros on this table, one of them on my left. Blinds are 1000/2000, ante 400. Top player raises all in UTG for 11000. Everybody mucks, and I´m in the BB and have about 70000 left (2nd biggest stack behind the other top pro, who has over 130000). Pot is 18000, 9000 for me to call. Should I call with 74o?

Best regards

Martin Aigner

[Lurshy]

74o is too big a dog too any random hand, that I would be hard pressed to defend my blind with it with 10% of my stack. And bring down a good stack to average. Even if the Pro was making a move with something like 10 8 suited, you are still a dog.

Label me weak, but I fold.

[SossMan]

call, fold...it probably doesn't make much difference. It's pretty close to neutral EV, IMO. I would probably lean towards folding w/ your stack. I think a bigger stack will be pretty valuable when you have a little more clear decision later.

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
Even if the Pro was making a move with something like 10 8 suited, you are still a dog.


[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think he's calling because he thought the pro was making a move w/ 73o...he knows he's a dog, that wasn't really the question.

[Apathy]

I think this situation is really close between calling and folding so you need to consider how important it is to you to eliminate this skilled player, and you also need to consider the implications of giving him/her another 9000 in chips if you call and lose (and you will lose about two thirds of the time IMO).

[MLG]

if you are up against two top pros (who you feel are better players than you), then you should call this. Of course, just because they are "top pros" doesn't meant on this day at this table they are playing better than you, but if you feel even a tiny bit outclassed then go for it and call.

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
if you are up against two top pros (who you feel are better players than you), then you should call this. Of course, just because they are "top pros" doesn't meant on this day at this table they are playing better than you, but if you feel even a tiny bit outclassed then go for it and call.

[/ QUOTE ]

I thought that too, but I'm not thrilled about giving bullets to him 2/3ds of the time either...i think this is pretty close.

[Martin Aigner]

Of course the question is not about whether I´m a favourite with my 7 high here. This is about other things, such as:

- Pro will make a move here about 90% of the time, maybe even 100% (I would move in every time here). So I get proper odds again a random hand here.

- If I can eliminate pro I have a way easier stand, since he is one player I fear and he´s on my left

- Pro is right now low on chips and therefore not that dangerous. If he doubles up against me he´ll be way more dangerous, although still below average in chips.

- If I muck he has one more round to play. As usual the play is rather thight on final tables, and raises by him might win him chips uncontested, so he might be able to build a stack that way, too.

Martin Aigner

[Lurshy]

You may be right about me misunderstanding something. How is calling another 7K with 74os pretty close to neutral expected value?

I am not trying to be obnoxious, just learning...(and we've all seen Pro's make moves with 73os LOL) - are they not more likely to bluff due to their image equity? or do they lose that because of all the story hunters out there.

[Lurshy]

Thanks Martin, I see your reasoning more clearly now. Especially the pot odds vs the random hand. I still would rather hold onto my ammo for a more favorable time.

[gergery]

Seems like fold is best.

Most of the time you’ll be EV neutral as 2:1 dog, but a few times you’ll be crushed vs. AA-77, a few times you’ll still be behind as 3:2 dog. I don’t think the few times you’re a dog but EV+ compensate for the other times you’re buried. So I think a call is slightly EV negative.

But more importantly, you’re a good player who’s likely better than all but two of the others at the table – why take a proposition that is very likely to be EV neutral here, when you can wait to get in as better than that? Especially since the top pro’s advantage is severely limited by a small stack that doesn’t allow his better skills to emerge via decision-making on every street AND who must face his same situation again within 7 or so hands?

--Greg

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
You may be right about me misunderstanding something. How is calling another 7K with 74os pretty close to neutral expected value?

I am not trying to be obnoxious, just learning...(and we've all seen Pro's make moves with 73os LOL) - are they not more likely to bluff due to their image equity? or do they lose that because of all the story hunters out there.

[/ QUOTE ]

If the pro has unpaired overcards he is about 2:1 favorite. Hero is getting 2:1 on his call, therefore EV nuetral (chipEV anyway). However, obviously, if pro has an overpair or has a 7 or 4 w/ an overcard kicker, it is more like 3.5 or 4:1. The best case scenario is that the pro has something like an unlikely 73,72,56,46,43,33,22. These are pretty unlikely because of the frequency that they would show up in the range of hands that the pro would push with. All in all, the weighted average is probably close to 2:1, maybe a little worse.
The bigger question is does the hero take the chance to knock out a dangerous opponent while risking giving him more chips and making his #2 stack much more average. I think it's a little too much to risk, IMO, but it's pretty close.

[Lurshy]

Thanks SossMan, clearer now.