Some of these guys are your opponents

[zuluking]

Check out these comments on AA while I was browsing cardplayer.com


All hold em hands, should be considered just another starting hand.

Even AA, will lose one fifth of the time, when hot and cold against another pair.

Actually they do get cracked about half the time.

In online low limit holdem AA is nothing more than an above average starting hand. When playing AA in low limit holdem your post-flop philosophy should still be "fit-or-fold".

Having a big pocket pair like AA, KK or QQ are great starting hands, but will be beaten if there are many other callers.

you need to consider the hands you do play (except AA) as JUST a starting hand and not put any more value into it. Once you learn that lesson, you save lots of money.

I agree with you totaly.
AA is also nothing but a starting hand, just as every other starting hand.

Well AA i wouldn't say you HAVE to raise people out although it would be recommended. Smooth-calling does have it's place.

I would say that if I lose one fifth of the time with AA, I would be happy about it. That´s great odds.

[sprmario]

Some dude called a raise and reraise in the big blind last night w/ 64o and his reasoning was truly amazing. At one point he said:

What you fail to realize is that with all the raises and calling that a lot of the big cards were out in people's hands and I am more likely to hit the flop.

Of course he made trip 6s on the river to rake in a huge pot and one guy was giving him hell. It was a very funny read /images/graemlins/smile.gif.

[astroglide]

they don't get cracked half the time, they get cracked a little over 20% of the time. people UNDERESTIMATE the impact of aces on their overall win rate, but have too many expectations regarding the play of any given hand. whoever wrote that stuff is stupid.

[zuluking]

More......

Give me 45s 56s, 67s or 78s when we are seeing the flop with 4 or 5 players. I figure most of them have the big cards and pocket pairs. Then watch em cry when my straight busts em out!!!

My co-worker says that he does not like having AA in the hole because there are too many ways to have them cracked.

AAs are definately great but there is 5 more cards to come.
i like AKs too, more options.. (realistic options)
AA limits you to pair, two pair, full house, 4 of a kind.
AK you can get, a pair, two pair, full house, flush, straight, royal flush.

Sometimes I play AA the same way I would 66 or 77. In other words limp in an early position (hoping for the raise of course). Then its a whole lot easier to lay it down (similiar to AK). Who knows what the best way to play AA is? My humble opinion is to play em differently and not get married to em (or any hand for that matter).

[Victor]

Prevailing theories of many people that I play with in cleve (especially the 5-10ers):

I never raise AK because it a)never hits for me b) is a drawing hand.
I never raise KK because an A always comes
I never raise AA because it always loses for me.




People are stupid. Stupidity is the largest force in the world - Vassilis Panaskaltis (my professor after the class average on a test was 30%)

[TheGrifter]

[ QUOTE ]
they don't get cracked half the time, they get cracked a little over 20% of the time. people UNDERESTIMATE the impact of aces on their overall win rate, but have too many expectations regarding the play of any given hand. whoever wrote that stuff is stupid.

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually Astro, this is a rare instance in which you are wrong.

[Manimal 42]

In a tourney last night I got AA in the BB.

We were down to 139 players from the original 376 and the blinds were 50/100

1 caller, 1 raised, one called the raise. I was slightly below average but moving well so I moved all-in figuring either to match up against AK, a lower pair or just grab the pot. Everyone folded but the SB who called w 9 8s.

The 9 paired on the flop and the 8 at the river thus killing 90 mins of decent tourney play.

I didn't go Helmuth or anything but I did wish the caller a short and dissapointing tourney.

Was I wrong to go all-in there? I've also heard some Tv comment that AA wins about 60% of the time from before the flop. How does one get a figure like that?

[MicroBob]

[ QUOTE ]
What you fail to realize is that with all the raises and calling that a lot of the big cards were out in people's hands and I am more likely to hit the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]


There is actually SOME validity to this imo....but not enough to justify varying one's actions.

If the table had been reasonably normal (not ultra-loose) and you can actually read your opponents as being unlikely to cold-call unless they had high-cards then it is possible that he is very slightly more likely to hit a flop to his liking.
So slight is this possible 'advantage' (this word really doesn't apply here) that it pretty much doesn't matter.

[astroglide]

how am i wrong?

[TheGrifter]

[ QUOTE ]
how am i wrong?

[/ QUOTE ]

The percentage of the time that AA will be cracked depends heavily on the characteristics of the game you are in, and no arbitrary fixed number can be ascribed to it.

[astroglide]

allow me to amend my statement to say that in virtually every limit in every cardroom, online or not your win rate with aces should approach the upper seventies. to prove it out for the original poster's quote (low limit holdem), ask the small stakes forum. i would predict that anybody with a decent sample size will have them winning a little under 80% of the time for a little under 3bb/hand.

[TheGrifter]

[ QUOTE ]
allow me to amend my statement to say that in virtually every limit in every cardroom, online or not your win rate with aces should approach the upper seventies. to prove it out for the original poster's quote (low limit holdem), ask the small stakes forum. i would predict that anybody with a decent sample size will have them winning a little under 80% of the time for a little under 3bb/hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Amendment noted.

/images/graemlins/grin.gif

[astroglide]

i wasn't wrong

[MicroBob]

have you been looking at my stats?

AA -
2.65BB/hand
win - 78.45%


note - i don't even have what I would consider to be a significant sample size in p-tracker currently (had previous database wiped-out and have been playing some non p-tracker friendly sites).
28k hands, AA 116x.

[TheGrifter]

[ QUOTE ]
i wasn't wrong

[/ QUOTE ]

Technically you were.

[astroglide]

technically you're a pedantic prick if you think it's worth observing that in certain countries it is customary to flip your aces face up when dealt them, cap every street and then fold the river out of turn. what i said applies to basically every full limit game on earth. i think ultramicrolimit (e.g. $0.02/$0.04) games could be the only consistent exception.

[TheGrifter]

[ QUOTE ]
technically you're a pedantic prick if you think it's worth observing that in certain countries it is customary to flip your aces face up when dealt them, cap every street and then fold the river. what i said applies to basically every full limit game on earth.

[/ QUOTE ]

pot. kettle. black.

You don't like to be tweaked do you.

That country is called Foxwoods.

[astroglide]

pot. kettle. black.

what am i accusing you of doing that i am doing myself?

having never visited foxwoods, i would still wager a large amount of money that the win rate and bb/hand with aces in all of their limit games is going to be in the zone i specified. stats are stats. the data has been shown by many people many times for many limits. people have wildly varying stats for different hands because of tightness/looseness/general postflop stuff but aces always end up in the same zone.

[Danenania]

In 26,108 hands of 3/6, I have had AA 131 times. They have won 77.86% of the time for an average of 3.00 BB per hand.

[TheGrifter]

[ QUOTE ]

what am i accusing you of doing that i am doing myself?


[/ QUOTE ]

Being pedantic.

Honestly Astro, lighten up.

[astroglide]

i wasn't being pedantic and i'm not going to lighten up.

[KowCiller]

I'm not sure what's funnier... reading the text or hearing the spoken words.

Last night at a local B&M game, some players were discussing their various "favorite" hands. It got around to me, and I stated AA was my favorite. Most of the people there literally looked at me like I was insane. One guy said "AA, forget that. Give me TT, I'll take that over AA anyday of the week. AA gets cracked for me every time!" I told the dealer "I'll take AA every hand, my friend here will take TT every hand." and the guy said "Yeah! sounds good to me."

He was dead serious... Finally after taking so much heat from 2-3 players at the table for saying AA was my favorite hand, I told them the only reason I liked it the best is because the first 2 letters of my name are AA (name is Aaron). They then happily understood where I was coming from.

Lovin' it :-)

KoW

[joker122]

[ QUOTE ]
AAs are definately great but there is 5 more cards to come.
i like AKs too, more options.. (realistic options)
AA limits you to pair, two pair, full house, 4 of a kind.
AK you can get, a pair, two pair, full house, flush, straight, royal flush.

[/ QUOTE ]

Suggesting that AKs is anywhere close to AA in hand strength, whether it be a multiway pot or HU, is really dumb.

Or were you being satirical?

[BigBaitsim (milo)]

~78% over 40K hands.

[namknils]

This is hilarious. I love it. The last time I visited the old B&M the guy next to me won a pot with 83, he was friendly so he happily told me that 83 is his lucky hand and it wins 80% of the time for him. I just said "Oh yeah? That's cool." It's people like this that make the game so profitable.

[bicyclekick]

77.5% 2.88bb/hand

77k hands 15/30 having AA 372 times...

[Blarg]

[ QUOTE ]
Some dude called a raise and reraise in the big blind last night w/ 64o and his reasoning was truly amazing. At one point he said:

What you fail to realize is that with all the raises and calling that a lot of the big cards were out in people's hands and I am more likely to hit the flop.


[/ QUOTE ]

Sketchy logic at best, but it actually sometimes does apply to stud a good bit.

[Blarg]

54,151 hands, 256 times AA, 75.00% win rate, 2.57 BB/100

[James282]

78% win, 3.45 BB/hand. Party 15/30 and 30/60.
-James

[astroglide]

3.45? how big is the database?

[juanez]

1/2 Party
22,700 hands,
70.79% win rate (do I suck or is it the lower limit?)
2.92 BB/Hand

[ctv1116]

I am a losing player if you aggregate my winnings with all hands other than AA (i.e. my winnnings with AKs, AKo,..., 32s, 32o is negative). Now add in AA, and I'm up over ten thousand dollars...

[bicyclekick]

I don't know if I quite understand. Are you saying that the AA profit makes up more than all the other hands combined lose?

AA makes up half my profit. Wow, taht's crazy.

[Lawrence Ng]

[ QUOTE ]
they get cracked a little over 20% of the time

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you're on crack more than 40% of the time.

[ QUOTE ]
people UNDERESTIMATE the impact of aces on their overall win rate,

[/ QUOTE ]

So you're telling me that if you were a statistical favorite to win the hand, and somebody who is a big underdog cracks your aces that you wouldn't even feel the slightest bit upset? I mean I don't think you'd go on tilt, but still you must have the emotions of a Vulcan.

[ QUOTE ]
whoever wrote that stuff is stupid

[/ QUOTE ]

No true to say, some of it has merit and if there are gullible and nieve players who think Aces really don't have great equity then all the better for me. Write up like these in magazines like Cardplayer.com keep making you and me a winning player because they give crap advice and who follows the crap advice? Bad players. So all in all, it's not stupid. Maybe you are.

[Lawrence Ng]

[ QUOTE ]
i wasn't wrong

[/ QUOTE ]

Prove it then? Let's see your sample size with Aces.

[Sponger15SB]

I crush you all...

27,525 hands
AA 120x win 90.83%
12.75 BB/hand

....err well this is at $50 NL /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

[astroglide]

could be the lower limit, i would still expect it to be higher than 71% though. mine was over 100k hands of 3/6.

[astroglide]

lawrence, you are an overemotional joke that is simply reacting to the harsh response you received over your recent midlimit AA post.

[zuluking]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
AAs are definately great but there is 5 more cards to come.
i like AKs too, more options.. (realistic options)
AA limits you to pair, two pair, full house, 4 of a kind.
AK you can get, a pair, two pair, full house, flush, straight, royal flush.

[/ QUOTE ]

Suggesting that AKs is anywhere close to AA in hand strength, whether it be a multiway pot or HU, is really dumb.

Or were you being satirical?

[/ QUOTE ]

These are ACTUAL posts in the cardplayer.com forums. I'm 2+2, you think I'd say that?!?!?!?

[Kevin]

135,677 hands
AA - 644 times
win % 81.37%
BB/H : 3.08

Average Saw Flop: 33.08%

Kevin

[astroglide]

very nice! what limit?

[Kevin]

80% 3/6 15% 5/10 the rest in 2/4 and 10/20

[Kevin]

I am still ultra envious of your Q10s hands. I am still -.2 after 452 times. It is very positive the last 100 or so, however. I guess suited broadways take a long time to get ample sample since they are 330-1 to show up.

I will press on (and continue my Q10s envy...)

Kevin

[James282]

Just over 50k hands. I can't remember what my old aces bb/hand was, but it was over 3 --- but I ran extremely well over the 35k or so hands I lost when my comp went bust for a bit.
-James

[James282]

FWIW - a guy I know who beats this game worse than anyone I've ever heard of registers his aces in at 3.55 - he has about 105k hands. His KK runs close to 3 as well.
-James

[MicroBob]

[ QUOTE ]
So you're telling me that if you were a statistical favorite to win the hand, and somebody who is a big underdog cracks your aces that you wouldn't even feel the slightest bit upset? I mean I don't think you'd go on tilt, but still you must have the emotions of a Vulcan.

[/ QUOTE ]


I certainly don't have the emotions of a Vulcan....but I think that getting upset over something like this is stupid.

You already KNOW that anything can happen and it comes down to what cards come. If you were the favorite going in and played the hand correctly then what is there to be upset about? You KNOW that in the long-run you will win when you play correctly.

Just move on to the next hand....no big deal.
What exactly is there to get upset about?

[billyjex]

I won a huge pot at the local cardroom (2-4/2-8 spread game) with AA last night (it was over $200 pot.)

Betting capped preflop (very loose agressive play.) Flop is K,10,3 rainbow. Betting again capped. A on the turn, now I have trips but am afraid of QJ. Two bets on the turn. River is a 3 making my aces full. Betting is capped on the river.

I had Aces full of threes.
Loser A had pocket Kings for kings full of threes.
Loser B had threes full of tens.

AA is scary when five+ people see the pot, but you're still the favorite. It can win you alot of money.

[ActionBob]

i would still wager a large amount of money that the win rate and bb/hand with aces in all of their limit games is going to be in the zone i specified.

I would certainly wager a large amount that ones bb/hand with AA can be MUCH higher than you say with a large sample size.

-ActionBob

[kurosh]

Question. Assuming everyone at your table is a complete dumbass and won't realize this, if you only waited for AA/KK maybe QQ or AK then played those, would you have a higher profit?

[bicyclekick]

[ QUOTE ]
Question. Assuming everyone at your table is a complete dumbass and won't realize this, if you only waited for AA/KK maybe QQ or AK then played those, would you have a higher profit?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm going to go out on a limb here and say no. lol.

I take it you have never seen a poker tracker database?

[astroglide]

what are you defining as MUCH higher? at 3bb aces are worth $90/hd in 15/30

[astroglide]

KK at 3 i'd have to see to believe

[astroglide]

that was for 3/6 right? i don't think my 15/30 results with it are as good, .33 bb/hd. i think it was pretty sick with the 3/6 db. but at 100k hands that's still "only" about 350 deals of any 2 specific suited, enough room for wiggles.

[Michael Davis]

I think there are a lot of live games where your win rate is going to be about 70%.

-Michael

[bicyclekick]

[ QUOTE ]
...at 3bb aces are worth $90/hd in 15/30

[/ QUOTE ]

You don't say.

[ActionBob]

"KK at 3 i'd have to see to believe "

http://cda.mrs.umn.edu/~clar0480/AAKK.jpg

-ActionBob

[astroglide]

i was specifying it to request a specific dollar figure from him, genius.

[astroglide]

i think that the AA winrate is on the high side of normal but with 500 deals there can still be a healthy amount of variance (as attested to by my QQ results against a solid regular who i know is not making hopeless payoffs with it).

both results are awesome, the KK ones are fantastic. the "blind" number could be a big factor. if i look at just 100k hands of mine i got KK blind 118 times and AA blind 132 times. the big blind is my most profitable position for both hands (which i think can lend a lot of credit to limp-reraising or possibly being the first cold caller with them).

what are the other stats on AA/KK (the rest of the line in pt)?

[James282]

Being the first cold-caller? My experience is that a lot of the cold-calling hands(suited face cards, any pair) will be called off for 3 bets as well as 2. I limp reraise plenty, but only rarely try the first cold-caller play(I will if there is a very loose aggressive player behind me). I wonder how that actually affects the winrate.

Sadly - even 500 instances where someone was the first cold-calller vs. someone who, next to act, 3 bet the raise 500 times really wouldn't even tell that much unless all 1000 times occurred at the same table.
-James

[bicyclekick]

[ QUOTE ]
i was specifying it to request a specific dollar figure from him, genius.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well you were being pretty ambiguous. What does it really matter how he specifies it? You as well as everyone else can do the quick math.

You werne't specifying anything other than showing off you've got basic algebra skills to figure out since bb=$30 and winrate with AA=~3 therefor 3xbb = $90.

/images/graemlins/grin.gif

You're very quick to jump on others posts...learn to accept the fact you make retarded posts sometimes too.

[astroglide]

it doesn't completely matter, but he's speaking from a brick and mortar perspective and it should be easier that way and wouldn't require multiplication (not algebra) for the other readers of the thread to factor. i was not at all ambiguous, i asked a direct question.

learn to accept the fact that i didn't make a retarded post. i can see that you are very affected by me. you should wait for an opportunity where i actually do or say something wrong before you attempt to exact your revenge for however i have hurt your feelings. you're only making yourself look like an idiot by claiming a clear response to an assertion is 'retarded' or making pointless observations about statements used in context to make a question more clear.

[bicyclekick]

..must...not...let...you...have...the...last...wor d...

Nah, it's not like you've ever done anything to me, mainly because I'm not too often retarded, but...you are really quick to be a crabass to a ton of other posters.

I didn't even make a particularily snide comment in the first place. All I said was "you don't say". Clearly you are very affected by me.

The only thing your post was making more clear is that yes, astroglide is capable of making a retarded post, too.

[Number4]

Just over 56k hands, 278 times, 73.38% win %, 2.65 BB/hand.

[TheGrifter]

[ QUOTE ]
i wasn't being pedantic and i'm not going to lighten up.

[/ QUOTE ]

You really should, life is better when you do.

[GrinningBuddha]

AA: 82.47% win - 6.93 BB/hand
KK: 60.44% win - 3.42 BB/hand

Remarkably, all pairs are in the black at the moment, but only over 20k hands. These are low limits too, so AA drags a lot bigger pots. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Cleveland Guy]

Where in Cleveland are you playing? I want to come to the games - I'll just bet every Ace!!!!!!!

[colgin]

[ QUOTE ]
allow me to amend my statement to say that in virtually every limit in every cardroom, online or not your win rate with aces should approach the upper seventies. to prove it out for the original poster's quote (low limit holdem), ask the small stakes forum. i would predict that anybody with a decent sample size will have them winning a little under 80% of the time for a little under 3bb/hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

75.48% win %age for 2.59BB/hand.