Iraqis want to be free. So what? (a rant)

[sam h]

I hear this over and over again from both campaigns. The reason why democracy will ultimately prevail in Iraq is because those good ol' Iraqis simply want to be free.

For anybody inclined to purchase this particular bit of snake oil, I have an exciting real estate opportunity in Fallujah that you might also want to think about investing in.

But first, we might consider a few simple questions: What is the correlation between how much a populace "wants to be free" and the success of a democratic initiative in their country? Were the many, many cases of failed democratic initiatives that we might pluck from 20th century world history the result of deficiencies of freedom-wanting? Or were there perhaps other causal factors at play? And what might those tell us about the fate of Iraqi democracy?


Answer Sheet

1) Maybe an insignicant one at best.
2) Of course not.
3) A lack of political institutions for representation of social groups, a weak state without a monopoly on the legitimate use of violence, ethnic tension, religious tension, and an abundance of extractable resources have all been shown to undermine democratic initiatives.
4) Iraq has every one of these negative variables. You draw the conclusion that neither the dems nor the gop has the balls to tell the public.

[MMMMMM]

I agree that the chances of Iraq succesfully making the transition to democracy are not very high. In addition to the reasons you list, there is also the inherent fundamental conflict between democracy and Islam (philosophically speaking, Islam itself demands religious rule).

It would be a great thing if democracy were to take root and eventually flourish in the Middle East.

Without democracy and relative freedoms, I suspect their societies will be mired in underperformance/underachievement for a great long time yet to come. This in turn will create more resentment of the outside world, thus continuing the vicious circle. As WMD technology expands, the scenario is incredibly ugly and dangerous.

They desperately need democracy, but assessing things from a historical perspective, I agree the chances appear low that they will successfully manage to become democratic societies.

There is hope with the youth, especially in Iran where many are college educated and fairly modern in ways and outlook. In Iraq many would like democracy yet many too would not. The problem there is that those opposed to democracy are also the most violent--and that is a very big problem.

I agree the administration has projected greater optimism than is warranted over the chances and prospects of democratizing the Middle East. My guess is that the administration itself probably underestimated the difficulties in establishing a lasting democracy in Iraq.

Is there any other solution? Can the rest of the world tolerate a nuclear armed and increasingly belligerent Middle East, even ten or twenty years from now? A nuclear armed Middle East which remains economically inferior due to its illiberal laws and traditionss, and grows increasingly angry about its inferiority--and in large part, refuses to recognize that IT is the problem?

There is usually hope in youth, and hope for change. It would be of interest to compare the numbers of college-educated/"progressive-minded" youths in the Middle East with the numbers of disenfranchised fanatical "dead-ender-type" youths in the Middle East. The balance of those numbers may well be an indicator of the region's future.

In the meantime, it is imperative to ensure nuclear non-proliferation in the Middle East.

[ACPlayer]

You make the point on the incompetence of our administration very well. Most of us against the war have long said that the idea of democracy taking root in Iraq is a pipe dream. Of course that does not stop the neo-cons from making that argument --- even though the last thing they want is true democracy. What they want is a dictatorship that they can control rather than one that is controlled by someone else. If King Saud could take over Iraq Bush et al would hand over pronto.

The one point we agree on: make the middle east nuke free. Lets start with Israel and work from there.

[Dynasty]

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I have an exciting real estate opportunity in Fallujah that you might also want to think about investing in.

[/ QUOTE ]

The land value there has to be at it's lowest right now. It sounds like a good, though volatile, investment.

[Flashy]

When have Arabs ever had the opportunity to live in a democracy?

Why can't Arabs have success with a democracy? Are they different from us?

[sam h]

I never said it had anything to do with their being Arabs or Islamic.

[sam h]

[ QUOTE ]
The land value there has to be at it's lowest right now. It sounds like a good, though volatile, investment.

[/ QUOTE ]

That is a good point. Though I wish you luck in getting a title deed and then having it upheld in a court of law.