Theoretical Question - small PP HU w/ pre flop raiser

[Redeye]

Well, I'm not sure if the following will be a stupid question or not, but I don't remember encountering it in any of the books I've read or any messages on the forum.

Suppose you are in the following situation. EP Raise, a few cold callers and your on the button w/ 55. You call. Now flop comes resonably uncoordinated with nothing over a 9. EP raiser bets, all fold to me.

Is this something I should always call down to the river assuming the PF raiser has typical EP raising requirements?

My reasoning is as follows:

If the PF raisers requirements were say AK,AQ,AJ, TT-AA

There would be 48 combinations were ahead of and 30 were behind.

Calling to the river costs 2.5BB assuming the raiser always bets all streets. Therefore:

38.5% we lose 2.5BB when PF raiser has PP
14.8% we lose 2.5BB when PF raiser has overcards and hits
46.7% we win 2.5BB+pot when PF has overcards and doesn't hit

Adding it all up:

46.7*(P+2.5)-38.5*2.5-14.8*(2.5) = 0

Therefor for this to be 0 EV, the pot size P would have to be about 0.3BB. Even if my raising requirements are off, it seems the pot size would always compensate for this. So if I get a PF raiser heads up and I have a small PP, calling down would be +EV.

Is my logic flawed here? Is this something thats obvious and I should know already?

[me454555]

You shouldn't be calling 2 cold in this situation to begin with. You will not be heads up w/an early pf and therefore will not have to worry about this theoretical situation.

[Evan]

Here's one problem with what you're saying. AK-AJ and other missed high cards will probably give up by the river, maybe by the turn. So the pots you win will be smaller than the pots you lose, so you'll have to win more often (or have a bigger pot) than you calculated. I'd do the math myself if I weren't so damned lazy.

[Redeye]

[ QUOTE ]
You shouldn't be calling 2 cold in this situation to begin with. You will not be heads up w/an early pf and therefore will not have to worry about this theoretical situation.

[/ QUOTE ]

If I'm on the button w/ 3-4 other people cold calling I shouldn't could call with a PP? Seems to me that getting 4:1 or 5:1 should be enough to justify calling. Another situation could occur in the BB if I call an EP raiser with a small PP after some others have entered the pot and he bets while everyone else folds.

[Redeye]

[ QUOTE ]
Here's one problem with what you're saying. AK-AJ and other missed high cards will probably give up by the river, maybe by the turn. So the pots you win will be smaller than the pots you lose, so you'll have to win more often (or have a bigger pot) than you calculated. I'd do the math myself if I weren't so damned lazy.

[/ QUOTE ]

I replied to this once but I'm not sure what happened to the message. Anyway, even if we take the other extreme where we don't win any additional money and only the pot. The pot size would only have to be 3BB to justify calling down. It seems this could be pretty easily met.

[Michael Davis]

This is a way different situation. The other players in the pot will make it very unlikely you will be heads up. Also, if the preflop raiser continues to bet into multiple players, the chances of him having a pair rather than overcards goes up.

However, you will sometimes be heads up against a preflop raiser. These situations will occur when you are in the big blind.

-Michael

[Redeye]

[ QUOTE ]
This is a way different situation. The other players in the pot will make it very unlikely you will be heads up. Also, if the preflop raiser continues to bet into multiple players, the chances of him having a pair rather than overcards goes up.


[/ QUOTE ]

Thats probably the flaw in my reasoning, the fact that the PF raiser would not bet into 3-5 players if he didn't have something. Although if the board were real uncoordinated I still think a lot of people bet their overcards here.


[ QUOTE ]
However, you will sometimes be heads up against a preflop raiser. These situations will occur when you are in the big blind

[/ QUOTE ]


So would my reasoning be valid then for the big blind situation? Say EP raise, 1-2 cold callers. With 2 to 3 opponemts I think most people will bet any hand they raised with preflop.

[me454555]

Yes assuming there are 3 or 4 other cold callers you should cold call too to see if you can flop a set.

The initial question you're asking is a pointless one. Think about how often you will be in that situation. How often will you get a pp in LP? of those times how often will there be an ep raiser? of those times how often will you have 3 of 4 cold callers? of those times how often will flop come 9 high? of those times how often will the pfr bet and get it folded to you so that its heads up? See what I'm getting at?

In general low pp's against mulitple opponents are flop a set/oesd or toss it. Remember, pfr at worst has 2 overcards to you're pair, thats about a 50/50 shot pf, add in the possibility of him having an overpair and its just not worth calling down. Even if the flop missed him, theres a decent chance the turn or river will hit him too. On top of that he could be raise w/some random hand like A9, A8 or a medium pp like 77 or 88.

[Redeye]

[ QUOTE ]
The initial question you're asking is a pointless one. Think about how often you will be in that situation. How often will you get a pp in LP? of those times how often will there be an ep raiser? of those times how often will you have 3 of 4 cold callers? of those times how often will flop come 9 high? of those times how often will the pfr bet and get it folded to you so that its heads up? See what I'm getting at?


[/ QUOTE ]

Like I said, I wasn't sure if I really was giving this a ton of thought. I think you've pointed out the error in my ways, or rather that there's no reason to worry about it.

I do think that the BB situation occurs relatively frequently though and therefore deserves some consideration.