Weird bubble situation

[SmileyEH]

On the bubble in a PP $30+3
I'm in the BB with K7o with 76 chips left after posting BB of 200.

UTG folds and big stack min raises to 400...SB calls leaving himself with 450 chips.

Call or fold?

-SmileyEH

[Jman28]

I think I'd call here.

If you fold, he has to put all his chips in this hand, and lose it for you to have a reasonable shot at 3rd.

If he doesn't love the flop, and is a decent player, he'll fold almost all the time. You'll be in the SB next hand and need to win that to stay alive anyway.

Might as well roll the dice and have a small-medium shot to triple up. The big stack may bluff the flop if he misses, causing the 450 stack to fold, and giving you a fair chance to take the pot. Even if he doesn't, you still have a maybe 20% chance at it.

If you triple up, you have 828 (right?) and one more double up or a couple of steals puts you right back in the race for 1st.

-Jman28

[chill888]

IF (big IF) SB has shown himself to be rash then folding my be OK

[ChrisV]

Call. I imagine SB is just trying to make sure you go out this hand by making it a threeway pot. If you fold, he'll fold unless he hits the flop hard.

[rachelwxm]

If your think sb is a Reasonable player (which is always my assumption of last 4 at 30 table) I feel like it’s a call here.

I think sb is either slow playing big pair or most likely have above average hand and want to make sure you are out. So he either has big stack dominated or he will fold on flop unless the flop hit him well. (Otherwise it would be extremely –EV for him) And by folding on flop he still has a free shot to enter the pot to drive you out the next hand.

If you tripled up, you have EV=18 and if you fold and sb being knocked out by big stack, your EV=20. So as long as you believe your chance of trip up is greater than the chance that sb is knocked out, it’s a call.

JMO.

[rybones]

perhaps I am saying the same thing as everyone else, but for me there is just too much value in the pot. you fold and the possibility exists that you will get a decent hand in the sb. However even if you triple up there you end up with what 228? In this hand there is already 600 in the pot and your call will give you a shot at 676. I say call, call even if it is 7,2o.

justs my thoughts.

Ryan

[SmileyEH]

Thanks for the replies. I should have called, but the SB calling for half his stack had me thinking he was a complete moron - and thus had a chance of busting by getting all in on later streets.

I folded, flop came down and the big stack bet and the SB folded. Oh well /images/graemlins/smile.gif.

-SmileyEH

[steeser]

This is the easiest call I have ever seen. I might even call in this spot with 1 card.

[SmileyEH]

Could you explain why this is such an easy call? I know it is correct, but it is close in my mind.

-SmileyEH

[steeser]

You're getting almost 10:1 on your call. Based on the SB just calling he is likely to play this hand very close to the vest if you fold, presuming he is a somewhat sensible player.

If you fold, and the SB folds out, you have 76 chips left and are all-in in the SB, needing to win to survive. So if you fold, you need the SB to play the hand all-in and lose, and that's for a certain 3rd place.

If you play and win the hand, you at least have a fighting chance to finish 3rd and possibly move up.