Do you make this call?

[kurosh]

$10 SNG at Empire Blinds: 15/30
Seat 1 is the button
Total number of players : 9
Seat 1: al1971 ( $740 )
Seat 2: flipflopdude ( $665 )
Seat 3: AshyLarry9 ( $775 )
Seat 4: FavriteNiece ( $665 )
Seat 5: kuroshd ( $1100 )
Seat 6: blairbockhau ( $640 )
Seat 8: borntwokill ( $740 )
Seat 9: bjose075 ( $1065 )
Seat 10: mshala ( $1610 )

Dealt to kuroshd Q/images/graemlins/club.gif K/images/graemlins/club.gif
FavriteNiece calls [30].
kuroshd calls [30].
blairbockhau folds.
borntwokill calls [30].
bjose075 folds.
mshala calls [30].
al1971 folds.
flipflopdude calls [15].
AshyLarry9 checks.

** Dealing Flop ** [ 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 7/images/graemlins/club.gif, 6/images/graemlins/club.gif ]
flipflopdude checks.
AshyLarry9 checks.
FavriteNiece checks.
kuroshd bets [120].
borntwokill is all-In.
mshala folds.
flipflopdude folds.
AshyLarry9 folds.
FavriteNiece folds.
kuroshd ?????

[rjb03]

No, it is a little early in the tourney to be gambling like this. It's not even the nut flush draw. For all you know he is betting A/images/graemlins/club.gifX/images/graemlins/club.gif.

[stripsqueez]

a fine demonstration of why i have thrown this hand away without seeing a flop - if i did limp then i'd have trouble working out what to do in this spot - i think i would prefer checking the flop - perhaps calling a smallish bet - but feeling sick unless i see the Ac

stripsqueez - chickenhawk

[chill888]

[ QUOTE ]
a fine demonstration of why i have thrown this hand away without seeing a flop - if i did limp then i'd have trouble working out what to do in this spot - i think i would prefer checking the flop - perhaps calling a smallish bet - but feeling sick unless i see the Ac

stripsqueez - chickenhawk

[/ QUOTE ]

I had a guy yelling at me for getting lucky yesterday, when I was the actually huge favorite preflop (AKs vs KQo) but also still the favorite when all the money went in the middle post flop - i just had 20 outs or something and he had top pair (a Q).

So let me turn this posters question around and ask: assume the same betting pattern but you have A7 (no club) instead of KQc. Would you call then? Now remember that KQc is a favorite against A7 with this flop. In other words: would you fold KQc but call with the worse hand of A7?

How about if you had JJ or TT or 99? Well KQc is a favourite against JJ (even if one is a club) with this flop. I bet a lot of you (a lot of us?) would call with JJ but fold if you had KQc. Now I know I am picking some self serving hands here. But....

I am not taking a position on this post. I'm just trying to make a point that people overestimate "made" hands (like top pair) and underestimate huge drawing hands. All that matters is the odds of winning.


gl

[Gigabet]

I wouldn't make this call, not because you aren't getting the right money odds(assuming the opponent in question is even on top pair) but because by buying into this tournament you are suggesting that you can play better than the other 9 players.

Now if you play better than the other 9 players, why would you put yourself in such a close situation when you can capitilize on their larger mistakes elsewhere that are a lot less risky to your stack.

I also wouldn't have bet in your spot, because at that point for someone with a hand they intend on showing down, it would require them to commit their whole stack, and if you are committing your stack, you might as well make the other guy make the decision, just as your opponent did. If you want to bet there(with only 800 starting chips it is probably always right to at least make a stab at the pot right then and there), i would bet as low as possible, without making the bet look terribly weak, but never so high that any reasonable raise someone with a hand might make would force them to commit their stack to the hand. Otherwise he will commit it right then and there, and put you in a real tough spot. Just as he did.

On the other hand, if you think the other players are your equal, or betters, then by all means make the call and hope for the best.

Whenever you are in a situation like that, where you aren't certain whethere the actual price is right on a call, but you know is close to even money, think about the other players in the field, is it 6 handed, with 3 players who you have a hunch can outplay you? You would make the call in that spot. But if there are 4 fish, and 2 maybes, then fold, and find other spots.

The fact that you even care whether the odds were right or not suggests you are better than 90% of the players in the 10 dollar level, so it is probably always right for you to fold there.

I hope that helps you a little.

Gigabet

[stripsqueez]

[ QUOTE ]
So let me turn this posters question around and ask: assume the same betting pattern but you have A7 (no club) instead of KQc. Would you call then? Now remember that KQc is a favorite against A7 with this flop. In other words: would you fold KQc but call with the worse hand of A7?

[/ QUOTE ]

i fold both - gigabet has explained the reason - this is again why i fold pre-flop - i dont want to play a drawing hand in the first round especially near the front partly because i'm not going to draw

[ QUOTE ]
How about if you had JJ or TT or 99?

[/ QUOTE ]

i would be much more likely to call - i may be a dog to a drawing hand but not a big dog and i crap on lots of stuff these guys will bet with

stripsqueez - chickenhawk

[chill888]

[ QUOTE ]


[ QUOTE ]
How about if you had JJ or TT or 99?

[/ QUOTE ]

i would be much more likely to call - i may be a dog to a drawing hand but not a big dog and i crap on lots of stuff these guys will bet with

stripsqueez - chickenhawk

[/ QUOTE ]

But that's my point. KQc is almost certainly more likely to win (given the flop) than JJ in this situation but you would be FAR more willing to call with JJ.

In other words if God came down from above and said in a really impressive voice - "given the flop and betting so far - do you want JJ or KQc?" - most people would say JJ by a mile - and most people would be wrong. IMHO.

gl

[stripsqueez]

[ QUOTE ]
In other words if God came down from above and said in a really impressive voice - "given the flop and betting so far - do you want JJ or KQc?" - most people would say JJ by a mile - and most people would be wrong. IMHO.

[/ QUOTE ]

if god came down from above when i held JJ in this spot and said "hes got KcQc" - i will fold

stripsqueez - chickenhawk

[PrayingMantis]

[ QUOTE ]
But that's my point. KQc is almost certainly more likely to win (given the flop) than JJ in this situation but you would be FAR more willing to call with JJ.

In other words if God came down from above and said in a really impressive voice - "given the flop and betting so far - do you want JJ or KQc?" - most people would say JJ by a mile - and most people would be wrong. IMHO.

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree, chill. Let's say I face this exact action, and *have* to call with my hand (for some meta-game reasons, or whatever), I would much prefer JJ. It's a question of what hands do you put the all-in raiser here, but enough time he'll have over-pairs like 88,99,TT or hands like A7, even A6 (it's a low-limit SNG), not to mention some Ax suited flush draws that kill my KQs: against most of these hands I am way ahead of with JJ, and not with KQs. Sure I "prefer" KQs if he's on a set, but considering the _whole range_ of possible hands, JJ is a much better option, IMO.

[chill888]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
But that's my point. KQc is almost certainly more likely to win (given the flop) than JJ in this situation but you would be FAR more willing to call with JJ.

In other words if God came down from above and said in a really impressive voice - "given the flop and betting so far - do you want JJ or KQc?" - most people would say JJ by a mile - and most people would be wrong. IMHO.

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree, chill. Let's say I face this exact action, and *have* to call with my hand (for some meta-game reasons, or whatever), I would much prefer JJ. It's a question of what hands do you put the all-in raiser here, but enough time he'll have over-pairs like 88,99,TT or hands like A7, even A6 (it's a low-limit SNG), not to mention some Ax suited flush draws that kill my KQs: against most of these hands I am way ahead of with JJ, and not with KQs. Sure I "prefer" KQs if he's on a set, but considering the _whole range_ of possible hands, JJ is a much better option, IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]


PM - thanks and good answer to solve my early in the day - hungover - fuzzy thinking. Instictively JJ felt much better but was having trouble explaining why to myself.

[PrayingMantis]

[ QUOTE ]
PM - thanks and good answer to solve my early in the day - hungover - fuzzy thinking. Instictively JJ felt much better but was having trouble explaining why to myself.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's the advantage of being a few hours (4?) ahead of you in the day... Already had my breakfast, and the hangover is gone... /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[kurosh]

He had A7o, no clubs. I called and hit a queen on the turn. I win. At these low buy-ins, people will go all-in on top pair to try and defend their hand. If he had a set, he would've slowplayed. I put him on top pair with a flush draw or an overpair as distant possibilities. Vs top pair, I am a favorite to win. 6 outs for my K or Q, 9 outs for my clubs which is .9:1.