Play "Be the Manager"

[MrGo]

What would you do if you were Phil Garner? Assuming the Astros win tonight, they would need a win or a Giants loss to secure the Wild Card tomorrow. Here is the problem Garner faces:

You can start Clemens tomorrow who is your best starter and will likely win the game.

Or

You can start Hernandez who has been struggling his last couple starts and hope you win or the Giants lose and save Clemens for the first game vs. Atlanta?

Knowing recent playoff struggles vs. Atlanta, I would save Clemens and start Hernandez. This gives them an added edge. Plus the Astro's bullpen is very strong.

Thoughts?

[Lori]

I don't start Clemens.

However, I believe he's very likely to start.

Lori

[pudley4]

It makes little to no sense to start Clemens. If the Giants lose, it doesn't matter what Houston does, they're in. If they rest Clemens, he can go game 1 of the playoffs. If the Giants win, Houston can still make the playoffs by winning, and Clemens starts game 1 again. If Houston rests Clemens, loses, and the Giants win, there's a 1 game playoff on Monday, which Clemens would start.

Let's say the Giants will win 45% of the time. Houston will win 85% when Clemens pitches, and 50% (this number is probably low) when someone else pitches.

So 55% of the time the Giants lose, and it doesn't matter who pitches for Houston, and they've wasted Clemens.
22.5% of the time the Giants win and Houston wins regardless of who pitches, so again they've wasted Clemens.
6.75% of the time, the Giants win and Houston loses regardless of who pitches, so they've wasted Clemens and he's not available for the playoff game vs the Giants.

Only 15.75% of the time would it matter who pitches for Houston (the Giants win, and Clemens wins, and the other Houston pitcher would have lost), but even then they still have Clemens available to pitch the playoff game.

Houston is basically getting a free shot at Sunday.