Poll: The Kerry Debate Bounce

[El Barto]

Here is what Rasmussen (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/index.htm) has to say about how opinions have changed after the debate:

Results from last night's sample were similar to the preceding nights.

A Rasmussen Reports survey conducted Friday night found that 52% believe John Kerry "won" Thursday night's debate. Forty percent (40%) disagree and think George Bush emerged victorious.

Still, regardless of who they want to win, 53% of those surveyed believe George W. Bush will be re-elected.

Six percent (6%) of voters say the debate changed their mind about how they will vote this November.

Six percent (6%) of voters say the debate changed their mind about how they will vote this November. This includes 3% who now say they will vote for Kerry, 2% for Bush, and 1% who are now undecided.

One interesting twist is that 64% of Kerry voters now say that Presidential Debates are very important. However, only 23% of Bush voters share that view.

Looks like about a 1% bounce.

[Matty]

Cognitive dissonance resolution takes a while.

[vulturesrow]

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Cognitive dissonance resolution takes a while


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Apparently wishful thinking lasts forever in your case /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[Cyrus]

A Rasmussen Reports survey conducted Friday night found that 52% believe John Kerry "won" Thursday night's debate. Forty percent (40%) disagree and think George Bush emerged victorious.

This shows that Bush has a hard core support among around 40 percent of the populace. (I don't know if Rasmussen is polling only voters.) This is quite a strong showing for hard core support.

53% of those surveyed believe George W. Bush will be re-elected.

I would've expected a higher percentage for that. This is what people predict will happen. If a coin has a built-in bias of 2% favoring Heads, and you ask people what a flip of that coin will show, you should get a huge majority, and not just a majority of 2%, "predicting" Heads. A huge majority. (There will always be brick-headed Bushies in the sample.)

Six percent (6%) of voters say the debate changed their mind about how they will vote this November.

Low for Kerry's hopes to turn this around.

Six percent (6%) of voters say the debate changed their mind about how they will vote this November. This includes 3% who now say they will vote for Kerry, 2% for Bush, and 1% who are now undecided.

I find it hard to believe that there was a switch of a statistically significant number of undecideds or even Kerry-leaning voters towrds Bush after the first debate. The first debate was won by Bush only in the eyes of Bush fanatics -- even neo-con spinsters like Mark Steyn tried to put the best face on it, but they did not pretend that "Bush won"!..

Something's fishy there...

One interesting twist is that 64% of Kerry voters now say that Presidential Debates are very important. However, only 23% of Bush voters share that view.

This shows that Kerry's supporters feel the heat and hope for a turnaround through the debates. This also shows that Bush followers are sensing their man's weakness at this phase of the campaign and want to downplay the debates' importance.

[anatta]

Kerry now leads 49-46 vs. Bush in lastest Newsweek Poll taken the two days after the debate. This is within margin of error.

Right before I say this poll, a Fox News (just tuned in again for a few seconds, honest) analyst said that Kerry will see a "6 to 7 or 8" point bounce in various swing states. This was the first I heard of this, I thought something was up. I think this guy knows what 's really going on, Kerry got a real bounce from this debate.

[tolbiny]

Looks like about a 1% bounce.

Its more likely that its greater than a 1% bounce since kerry beat bush amoug the undecided's 3-2 it can reasonably be assumed that the 1% of new undecided's came from bushes camp along a similar line. so Kerry "Lost" 0.33 % and bush lost 0.66%- so Kerry gained 0.33%- but if those 0.33% move over to Kerry's camp then kerry gets an effective boost of 0.66%.
So i think this debate is looking more in the 1-2% boost range for kerry.

[El Barto]

Rasmussen Update (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Presidential_Tracking_Poll.htm) (3 day rolling average poll):

Oct 3: Bush 49.0 Kerry 45.4 (2/3 post debate responses)
Oct 2: Bush 48.6 Kerry 45.6 (1/3 post debate responses)
Oct 1: Bush 48.7 Kerry 45.3 (no post debate responses)
Sept 30: Bush 48.5 Kerry 46.1 (no post debate responses)


I don't see any bounce here at all, just steady as you go.

[wacki]

[ QUOTE ]
A Rasmussen Reports survey conducted Friday night found that 52% believe John Kerry "won" Thursday night's debate. Forty percent (40%) disagree and think George Bush emerged victorious.

This shows that Bush has a hard core support among around 40 percent of the populace. (I don't know if Rasmussen is polling only voters.) This is quite a strong showing for hard core support.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think so. If you read the debate, Bush actually looks pretty decent. He makes a bunch of very good points, he could of made alot more, but he made some good points. Kerry contradicted himself in the 90 minute long speach several times. If you simply watch the debate, Bush looks like an ass. Emotions are funny things. Kerry did destroy Bush, I don't even fully understand how he did it, because the bull was just flowing out of Kerry's mouth and Bush was trying, but not succeeding very well, at making a logical point.

[ QUOTE ]

One interesting twist is that 64% of Kerry voters now say that Presidential Debates are very important. However, only 23% of Bush voters share that view.

This shows that Kerry's supporters feel the heat and hope for a turnaround through the debates. This also shows that Bush followers are sensing their man's weakness at this phase of the campaign and want to downplay the debates' importance.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed.

[cornell2005]

let me preface this post by saying that im not very political at all.

but how could you say bush won the debate by looking at the chat transcript? besides horrible grammer at times, he rarely answered the question asked, and probably made the same point 15 times in the 90 minutes. i find it VERY hard to believe that a non partisan person could look at the transcript and judge it as a victory for bush

[El Barto]

Rasmussen Update (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Presidential_Tracking_Poll.htm) (3 day rolling average poll):

Oct 4: Bush 48.6 Kerry 46.1 (All post debate responses)
Oct 3: Bush 49.0 Kerry 45.4 (2/3 post debate responses)
Oct 2: Bush 48.6 Kerry 45.6 (1/3 post debate responses)
Oct 1: Bush 48.7 Kerry 45.3 (no post debate responses)

So between the last 100% pre-debate poll and the first 100% post-debate poll, Kerry picked up 1%.

[Matty]

Today Rasmussen has Bush at 47.2, and Kerry at 46.9.

[Matty]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Cognitive dissonance resolution takes a while


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Apparently wishful thinking lasts forever in your case /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[/ QUOTE ]Dontcha just hate it when I'm right? =]