Tough JJ on the turn - Party $100 NL

[JrJordan]

Good afternoon folks. I'm gonna get over this downswing any day now, in the mean time it's time to check up on my play. No read on the villain, but by the river he has a relatively short stack.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (9 handed)

MP3 ($112.3)
CO ($230.15)
Button ($61.55)
SB ($154.3)
BB ($105.95)
UTG ($58.45)
Hero ($106.2)
MP1 ($116)
MP2 ($835.6)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with J/images/graemlins/spade.gif, J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif. SB posts a blind of $1.
UTG folds, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises to $8</font>, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, MP3 folds, CO folds, Button calls $8, SB (poster) folds, BB calls $6.

<font color="blue"> I like to raise JJ from EP because it's too hard to get a lot of value when you play for the set UTG. It also makes it easy to fold to a reraise in LP. Hopefully it will also limit some options of hands as well. </font>

Flop: ($25) 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif, T/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="CC3333">Hero bets $18</font>, Button calls $18, BB folds.

<font color="blue"> I doubt there's any J8's on the board, so I'm most likely good at this point. It certainly is coordinated though so I make around a 3/4 bet on the flop. One caller, comments? </font>

Turn: ($61) K/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
Hero...

<font color="blue"> Ugh, pretty rough card to come. The most likely straight draw of QJ just came, along with a possible but unlikely overcard K. How do I approach it from here? Thanks. Comments and Results after a few responses. </font>

[cagedman]

Hm that's a lot of smooth calling.. did you get any timing tells? i.e. were the smooth calls slow and thoughtful or quick and impatient?

I think this may be a questionably played QQ-AA on the villian.

[JrJordan]

It's possible, but I'm guessing if he had AA-QQ, he would raise me on the flop because the board is semi-coordinated. Most often with fish who make that play, they usually make their move on the flop instead of the turn. However, it's certainly a possibility. Being that's what you think, would you just check/fold from here on out???

[okayplayer]

PF, I'd put him on AK or maybe medium pair (TT or 99), possibly smooth calling with AA. I really don't think he could play a lower pair for set value because of your small stack. On the flop I'd bet the pot...his call on the flop worries me (I'd say best case he has AK). Since you only have about $30 left on the turn, it's probably best to save it (check/fold) since you can't bet for information.

sorry if this sounds weak/tight

okay

[cagedman]

Really tough.. not sure.

So hard without a read... I HATE getting smooth called on two streets in a row with a hand good enough to get in trouble but not necessarily way ahead. Looks like he is happy to let you do the betting for him. A ton of players play trips that way so I'm starting to like that possibility too.

Might be lower variance to check/fold maybe you'll get lucky and he'll let you showdown cheap.