Bush vs. Kerry: Who is GOING to win?

[lastchance]

Who do you think will win the election, and by what probability? For example, I think Bush is a slim favorite right now, but no more than 60-40. Maybe that's just the very small liberal side in me talking, but the way I look at the polls, I think Bush is a slim favorite. He has certainly outcampaigned Kerry by being decisive, and the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth, have, amazingly, managed to cast doubt over Kerry's service. Because of this, I put Bush at around 60-40.

Try to keep your own personal opinions about who SHOULD win out of this. Put down odds, and try to back them up.

[GWB]

Me

Record of 20th Century elections that occured 4 years after the incumbant party took the White House over from the other party:

1900 McKinley WON
1916 Wilson WON
1924 Coolidge WON
1936 FDR WON
1956 Ike WON
1964 LBJ WON
1972 Nixon WON
1980 Carter LOST
1984 Reagan WON
1996 Clinton WON

90% success rate

[Cyrus]

Dewey To Defeat Truman

[QuadsOverQuads]

Kerry is going to win, and handily.

q/q

[mosta]

[ QUOTE ]
I think Bush is a slim favorite right now, but no more than 60-40.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm very far from expert in polls and elections, but I believe that a 60-40% favorite in a presidential election is a Gigantic favorite.

tradesports.com had bush as something like a 54% favorite as of 2 years ago. today the market makes him a 61.5% favorite. I give most credence to where the money is making the action. Besides, look at it this way, if that piece of sht has somehow taken the lead on the issues of fiscal responsibility (!!!!!!!!!!!!), and military service (
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!), how can deny that he has earned your vote?

Who really stands to lose from a Bush presidency? Obese, church-going simpletons in the fly-over states whose children will die for nothing in Iraq, and whose social security will vanish when the federal government implodes through reckless spending and astounding venality. who the hell am I to get between G-W and the people who love him? as an income earner in a very high percentile, I'll enjoy his tax cuts, and when they start tapping phones and instituting the draft, I'll leaave the country on my second, Brazilian passport, put my children in boarding school in Switzerland, get a professional job in London or Tokyo, put my feet up, and watch and laugh.

I want to thank GW for helping me achive the ultimate state of total and sublime cynicism. vote bush. how can you not? (unless you live in Florida and you now know the meaning of divine retribution.)

[nothumb]

I'd say 75% Bush, 25% Kerry.

NT

[juanez]

[ QUOTE ]
I'll leaave the country on my second, Brazilian passport, put my children in boarding school in Switzerland, get a professional job in London or Tokyo, put my feet up, and watch and laugh.


[/ QUOTE ]

See ya!

[IrishHand]

I think 3:2 Bush is a fair estimate right now. I've got a feeling that could change over the next two weeks into a legitimate toss-up situation. Kerry managing to make the 1st debate about Bush's policies was a godsend for him. If he can do the same at the domestic debate, Bush will be in trouble. He leads due to spin, not substance.