88...

[thirddan]

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

BB is loose-passive
UTG+1 is loose-passive
CO+1 is tight-passive
Button is LA-P and is the reason im at this table

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
UTG calls, Hero calls, <font color="666666">1 fold</font>, MP1 calls, <font color="666666">1 fold</font>, MP3 calls, <font color="666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="CC3333">Button raises</font>, SB calls, BB calls, UTG calls, Hero calls, MP1 calls, MP3 calls.

Flop: (14 SB) 8/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, T/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(7 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, <font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP1 folds, MP3 calls, Button calls, SB calls, BB folds, UTG calls.

Turn: (9.50 BB) 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(5 players)</font>
SB checks, UTG checks, <font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP3 calls, Button calls, SB calls, UTG calls.

River: (14.50 BB) K/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(5 players)</font>
SB checks, UTG checks, <font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP3 folds, <font color="CC3333">Button raises</font>, SB folds, UTG calls, <font color="CC3333">Hero thinks for a few seconds and 3-bets...

Comments?

[Evan]

Based on your read it looks like KTs is just as good a possibility as QJ here. if it wasn't one of those 2 hands I'd be pretty surprised. So let's say it's about 50-50 between those 2 and do a little EV calculation for a 3 bet.

QJ: He'll reraise and you'll lose 2BB extra (-2BB)
KT: He'll call half the time and you'll win 1BB extra and he'll reraise half the time and you'll win 2 BB extra (+1.5BB)

I know these calculations are fairly narrows (but I feel like it's one of these 2 hands) and crude, but I think that just calling the river raise is the best play here.

[InchoateHand]

How does UTG calling two cold on the river figure into this calculus? That CC has all the marks of a two-pair hand that desperately wants a showdown. Does this provide for a larger margin of error?

[Evan]

Wow, I totally forgot about him, let's see what we can come up with here....

QJ: He'll reraise and we'll lose 2BB extra (this isn't going to be affected by UTG)

KT: Let's go with the same assumptions form before is no one objects.....I guess no one objects. He'll call half the time and let's say that UTG will call virtually every time if you raise (which seems fair given his prior action), so we win 2BB extra in this case.
He'll reraise half the time (now it gets interesting), let's assume that half of those times UTG will call and half he'll fold (sound fair?). Now we'll win 4 BB extra 1/4 of the time and 2 BB extra 1/4 of the time.

Now let's see if we can tie up this whole mess....

EV = (-2*0.5)+(4*.25)+(2*.25) = -1+1+0.5 = +0.5BB

So I retract my previous post (and use the excuse of it being 6:30am in NY) and I think that the raise is for value here. Good play.

P.S. Thanks InchoateHand for bringing this to my attention.

[Evan]

I'd really like it if someone could tell me if they agree or disgree with what I came up with here. A lot (all) of these assumptions are extremely subjective and open to interrpetation.

Someone must feel that something was wrong with my analysis. C'mon guys.

[thirddan]

you have to take into account that the Button is an awful player (he is the reason im at this table) when an awful and aggressive player makes the nuts on the turn, they raise it...

[Evan]

Your read was LA-P. I wouldn't be surprised to see this type of player waiting till the river to raise the nuts. I still feel like it was 50-50 between the straight and kings up.

[Danenania]

I pretty much agree with Evan's analysis. 3-bet looks good. The other player in the hand is key.

[Evan]

Yea, UTG being there makes all the difference in the world here. Unforunately I didn't realize he existed when I wrote my first post.

[brassnuts]

[ QUOTE ]
BB is loose-passive
UTG+1 is loose-passive
CO+1 is tight-passive
Button is LA-P and is the reason im at this table

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with 8, 8.

[/ QUOTE ]

You don't strike me as loose passive.

[Danenania]

Haha. They're going to have a field day with this one, buddy.

[thirddan]

probably the least of my typos this week on this site...

[captain_swing]

I don't know why we are so confident of KT or QJ. A loose passive player doesn't raise these on the button very often. Plus an awful player might well slow play a set with this coordinated board. Could have KK, AA or TT (or other two pairs as well).

That probably doesn't change the three bet with the cold caller but a possibility to consider.

Swing

[Trix]

Depends how aggr pre and how passive post, but you allready know that.
You think his range is wider than: KK,KT ?

[Evan]

It could be KK I guess, but I don't see this line happening with AA/TT

[thirddan]

the LA-P is from my PT export, but here is the other data I had available from PT and from playing with him...

VPIP: 80 PFR: 31
AF Flop: 1.16
AF Turn: 1.24
AF River: 2.19

I don't respect his raises and am willing to call him down with marginal hands...

Hope this helps...

[bakku]

[ QUOTE ]
VPIP: 80 PFR: 31
AF Flop: 1.16
AF Turn: 1.24
AF River: 2.19


[/ QUOTE ]

Dude, 3-bet that and don't even think twice.