A confusing hand

[LinusKS]

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t20 (9 handed)

UTG+1 (t1480)
Hero (t1480)
MP2 (t1880)
MP3 (t1450)
CO (t1450)
Button (t1470)
SB (t1480)
BB (t1330)
UTG (t1480)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with J/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises to t60</font>, MP2 folds, MP3 calls t60, CO folds, Button calls t60, SB folds, BB calls t40.

Flop: (t250) A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 3/images/graemlins/club.gif, K/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(4 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">BB bets t20</font>, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises to t260</font>, MP3 folds, Button folds, BB calls t240.

Turn: (t770) Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">BB bets t1010 (All-In)</font>


***
What could he have had to change his min-bet/call on the flop into an all-in on the turn?

AQ?

But if he held AQ, what was he afraid of on the flop? AK?

And if he's bluffing, what could possibly make him think this was the spot?


Who calls here, and who folds?

[nrinker]

Id fold merely because of how early you are into the tourney. I believe that you should'nt get involved in hands like this early on if you have to make tough decisions......
for me the all in would pretty much force me to lay down, regardless of what he might hold.

[LinusKS]

You know, KQ and Q3 are possibilities here.

[LinusKS]

Or maybe a flush draw that included a Q.

[PrayingMantis]

That's a very easy fold. You got 3 spots calling you PF, with a hand that is tough to play, especially when an A flops. You're position is not great either. The mini-bet could mean 2843432 things. Your flop raise is basically fine, maybe a bit too big, although you can see your position problem right here: 2 more to act behind, you might get trapped in the middle with a hand you don't really want to see more action with.

There are many hands that beat you on the turn, when he pushes. Of course there's a chance this guy is on a lower A or a flush draw, but there's a very big chance you are practically drawing dead. This is certainly not the hand you want to bust with, so early in the game, without any kind of read. Easy fold.

[Irieguy]

I will add this thought:

When you bluff, the last thing on earth you want to do is confuse your opponent. If you dont want a call, you will make it as easy as possible for your opponent to put you on a hand that beats them.

If you're confused, you're behind. I think that's a pretty reliable rule. A hand becomes confusing when there is a wide range of hands your opponent could have, and many of them beat you. They almost always have one of those hands.

Irieguy

[LinusKS]

I agree with this. It seems like a terrible spot for a bluff. I wish I could rely on people not bluffing in terrible spots, but I can't quite.

The min bet combined with just calling my raise strikes me as poor play. It does fit with someone on a draw or second-best hand. I'm guessing he just got lucky there with the Q.