When is it okay to give up?

[Aaron W.]

Paradise Poker 1/2 Hold'em (9 handed)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, T/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, MP1 folds, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, MP3 calls, CO calls, Button folds, SB calls, BB folds.

Flop: (9 SB) 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif, Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 4/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(4 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">SB bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, MP3 calls, CO folds, SB calls.

Turn: (7.50 BB) 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP3 calls, SB calls.

River: (10.50 BB) T/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP3 calls, SB calls.

Final Pot: 13.50 BB

Question 1a: On the flop, it's raise or fold. But which one is it?

Question 1b: When you raise preflop and fold to one bet on the flop, is it true that this encourages people to take shots at you? (ie, Do they pay enough attention to notice?)

Question 2a: Do I bet the turn, or give up?

Question 2b: What if I was not called behind by MP3 on the flop?

Thanks.

[ArturiusX]

that looks fine to me. If another overcard hit though Id fold it fast, or if 5 hits the river which means any Ace will have you (and Im guessing at least one of the callers would have an ace hoping for the overcard).

[Jaran]

Hey Aaron,
You don't give up in this hand unless you get more resistance. Well played.

-Jaran

[Wahoo91]

What hand would you put the SB on that he is betting out on the flop?

[TheHip41]

[ QUOTE ]
What hand would you put the SB on that he is betting out on the flop?

[/ QUOTE ]

A4s A2s 55 66 77 88 99,

Or any kind of trash.

[Ajax410]

Could just as easily have a hand like Q9s-QJs.

[Jaran]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
What hand would you put the SB on that he is betting out on the flop?

[/ QUOTE ]

A4s A2s 55 66 77 88 99,

Or any kind of trash.

[/ QUOTE ]

Pretty much. Assuming SB has a Q is a bit of MUTBS, IMO. (I'd add more acronyms, but I don't have any more pertinant ones)

-Jaran

[Jaran]

Yes, he could. You can't assume you're beat just because an overcard falls. We're playing a game where the way to become a profitable player is to push little edges. This is an edge I happily push. If the card were an A, then I would be more concerned, given the number of any A players at this level. A Q doesn't scare me here. If he c/r the turn, then I worry.

-Jaran

[Ajax410]

I wasn't saying he has that hand - I'm just saying it's worth considering that he might have it. I would play this hand the same way...but I wouldn't be surprised to see a Q9s-KQs flipped up at the showdown - especially from a LP-P type.

[Wahoo91]

Most times I see an open bet on flop like that there is some kind of hand there. Most poor players like to check/call, not open bet crap hands like the ones mentioned above.

If there is a check in front, no question this is played out aggressively to the end.

I am not saying he *for sure* has a Q but it is a very distinct possibility. I would give it plus/minus 50/50 based on the way this was played out. If he has a Q it is with middle or no kicker.

[Jaran]

Hey Wahoo91,
I'm not denying the chance that he has a Q, but I'm not going to fear it here unless he gives me a reason to. What would be your line on this hand? I can't see a different way to play it unless I'm just giving up on the flop and folding.

-Jaran

[Aaron W.]

Suppose I don't hit my two-outer on the river. Is a river check in order, or do I continue to fire away?

[Ajax410]

Keep firing

[Jaran]

Bet.

-Jaran

[Aaron W.]

[ QUOTE ]
Keep firing

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think this is right. Not for this hand, anyway. Maybe with a Q974 board on the turn it's worth it to bet the river (assuming the river is something innocuous - perhaps a 2 in this case). But I have a much harder time believing that a bad player will call with a weak pair on a Q423 board when the river brings an 8. There were basically no draws on the flop, and so it's unlikely that anyone paired anything to make them want to call down (more mid-range cards, then it's a different story).

I can believe betting this heads up, but not here. It feels like a very thin value bet at best. (Though I don't think it can be VERY negative, either).

[Ajax410]

The way this hand transpired, I find it EXTREMELY difficult to believe anyone has a particularly strong hand. Some of the time someone is going to have a Q and call, sometimes they're going to have that Ax where the x paired and call you to the river. The fact is, you're ahead of the most likely hands in this situation. The post-flop bettor has shown no indication of wanting to mess with you since your first re-raise, which to me indicates he's on a draw or has a weak hand. If he is willing to call with bottom pair, you need to force him to put in that extra bet. Ultimately, you will get folded to a lot here, you will pick up a number of pots here, and you will lose some - but I still think maintaining the aggressive stance is more +EV than a simple check here...honestly, you beat about 70% of the hands that someone might have called you to the river with...it may be a thin value bet...but a value bet is still a value bet.

[Wahoo91]

I think the line is good. I myself would be very torn to check/fold in here somewhere because absent hitting the T on the river, with a CC and an overcall on the flop raise I would venture that one of those two has the Q.

[Wahoo91]

Suppose I don't hit my two-outer on the river. Is a river check in order, or do I continue to fire away?

At that point you must bet to give them the oppurtunity to fold. You still may have the best hand.

[stinkypete]

[ QUOTE ]
Suppose I don't hit my two-outer on the river. Is a river check in order, or do I continue to fire away?

At that point you must bet to give them the oppurtunity to fold. You still may have the best hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

nobody's gonna fold a better hand here.

[Aaron W.]

[ QUOTE ]
The post-flop bettor has shown no indication of wanting to mess with you since your first re-raise, which to me indicates he's on a draw or has a weak hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you assume that opponents are all hyper agressive. What weak draw could it be? I think it's highly likely that one of the two has the draw since there's basically nothing to draw to here. And if someone was drawing to the straight on the turn (holding A or 5, but not both), I don't think they're going to call a river bet, unless their side card is 6-J and it pairs on the river (A8 might take one off on the flop, call with the gutshot on the turn, and call if the 8 pairs). Again, if there were more mid-range cards, then I think I would be much better off.

[ QUOTE ]
Honestly, you beat about 70% of the hands that someone might have called you to the river with.

[/ QUOTE ]

If the opponent isn't a complete moron, what hands do you think will follow me to the showdown? (Recall I raised preflop, I was bet into, but raised the flop, and bet the turn on a Q423 board with a rainbow flop).

* Maybe Ax because they took one off on the flop and now have a straight draw, but I can't see them calling a river bet unless they paired the x. This is bad for me to bet the river. Most likely, the x doesn't pair, and they don't pay me off. (9 random Ax + 9 A4 and I win)
* Maybe some pocket pairs that didn't make a set aren't going to let go. This is good because I beat most of those. (30 ways for 55-99 I win, 4 ways JJ I lose, QQ-AA not likely)
* A weak queen might be hanging around and is worried about being outkicked. This is bad. I'm going to lose money (Q5-Q9 and maybe a timid QT-QJ -- 60-78 ways, depending on how much you count the timid cases.)
* K2-K6 might be there because they caught a pair or have a straight draw, but they go away on the river unless it's a pair, and still maybe not. If they're willing to call, it's good. But I would only expect to see K4 and maybe K3 call. (12-24 ways I win).
* I'll ignore the case where someone is being cute and slowplaying a monster.

Ways I win: 60-72
Ways I lose: 64-82

So it's a little less than 50% if I'm generous and allow them to call bad hands more liberally. My gut tells me to throw out the Kx hands, which is 20-33% of them (brings the percent down to 32-42%, depending on how it's counted). So it appears to come down to a really thin value bet, assuming that *BOTH* players have such hands and will call one more bet on the river, and a clearly losing bet if I lose just one of them.

As I keep saying, with more mid-range cards on the board, more weak hands will be willing to call.

[Wahoo91]

nobody's gonna fold a better hand here.

You would be surprised. Qx can not feel that great about their hand right now.

[Aaron W.]

[ QUOTE ]
You would be surprised. Qx can not feel that great about their hand right now.

[/ QUOTE ]

The entire first half of this conversation is based on the idea that lesser hands will call. Either we were dreaming up there, or you're dreaming here. It won't happen both ways.

And I tend to agree that people will NOT fold top pair on the river to a single bet. Make it two to them, you might have a chance... maybe. Not feeling great and folding are two separate things.

[Ajax410]

I really think its a possibility that one of your opponents has a queen. I still bet this river. I am relatively certain that I have made money off of hands that are nearly identical when my opponent turned over hands like 77, A4...Not to mention that a lot of micro-limit players are going to fold on the river for one more bet.

The way this hand was played, I think that it is more likely you're up against a hand like A4 than Q9. I think both are possibilities, I'm not sure if you win this without the T on the river, but I still take another shot at this pot.

[bakku]

Unless you have a read on SB as some kind of a LAG, fold on the flop.