PP NL100: My AA vs. ??

[Richie Rich]

After playing a breakeven session, last night, I decided to retire when the blinds came back around to me. As fate would have it, I picked up AA in MP.

Before the action comes my way, an extreme LAG in EP raises it up to 10. He has pushed several times in the last 2 orbits, losing twice and winning once. Obviously he's a loose cannon. I wanted to isolate this LAG, so I (accidentally hit the wrong button...damn laptop!) raised it up to 18. He calls, and now we're heads-up. We both have about 150 left in our stacks.

Flop comes 8 /images/graemlins/club.gif 9 /images/graemlins/club.gif 10 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
He checks, and I bet $55 into a $35 pot. He then comes back over the top and pushes all-in. Your move?

[eyekast]

i'd call he probally has another overpair which you either beat or tie. if its a set then your going to have to pay him off. also your dealing with a LAP whos pushed several times already.

[cornell2005]

why the overbet there?

[Richie Rich]

What kind of hands do you think would call a pot bet? What kind of hands do you think would call an overbet?

[CheckFold]

I think he overbets because against a loose cannon any 6, J, Q or club is a scare card, and a K isn't all that safe either. Plus, he forced a double overcard gutter or open-ender into a sizable mistake if he calls, which he might well do anyway.

I say call. You've put half your stack in already, and you're getting 3 to 1 on your call, which is more than enough against this guy. Another overpair is very unlikely, as he probably would have come back over you preflop. I put him on Jx. I think you should have reraised more preflop. He's going to call if you make it $25. By min raising, he's basically getting even money on his call.

[Richie Rich]

[ QUOTE ]
I think he overbets because against a loose cannon any 6, J, Q or club is a scare card, and a K isn't all that safe either. Plus, he forced a double overcard gutter or open-ender into a sizable mistake if he calls, which he might well do anyway.

[/ QUOTE ]
DING-DING-DING!!!

[ QUOTE ]
He's going to call if you make it $25. By min raising, he's basically getting even money on his call.

[/ QUOTE ]
Excellent point. But again, I accidentally hit the min-raise button.

[pdubz]

If this is NL 100 you have 32 behind facing a 168 pot right? That shouldn't be too tough a decision.

[AtlBrvs4Life]

Hard to give an answer with no mention of the stack sizes.

[CheckFold]

If they both had $150 before the flop, he's facing roughly $95 into $245. little harder decision now.

[Wayfare]

Well the overbet got what you wanted, a push, right? There are easier ways to find out where you are then overbetting the pot. I definately think he knows you don't have a made hand (as in a set or straight), and thinks he can move you off it. He probably has at least 1/3 equity in the pot.

I don't think he has a set, if he does whatever.
If you're beat, you did it to yourself with the min raise preflop. However, you have put too much in to turn back now, especially considering your holding and your opponent.

I can see pushing my JJ in here, especially since your overbet looks so much like one that does not want to be called.

[Richie Rich]

Although I didn't have any stats on this particular player, it didn't take a genius to figure out that this guy was willing to push some marginal hands. In fact, he had done it in the last 2 orbits with AQ and AJ before the flop.

So unless the flop came K-Q-J, I was essentially committed to my AA. I purposely overbet the pot for two simple reasons: (1) if he smooth-called, I was more likely in danger of a spiked set since I (accidentally) didn't raise him enough before the flop, but (2) if he pushed, I believe he was either on a str8/flush draw or had KK/QQ. In short, if he didn't spike a set on the flop, I was giving him incorrect odds to chase me.

So he pushed on the 10-9-8 flop. Getting nearly 3:1, and given his gamb00ling nature, it was a pretty simple call. Turn came 9 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif. River was 7 /images/graemlins/heart.gif. Unfortunately, my opponent took down the $340 pot catching the ignorant end of the str8, holding pocket 6s. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[jjb108]

Sounds like a typical put him on your buddy list and you'll get your money back IMO.