Party 3/6: Folding the river with second pair... [Archive]

View Full Version : Party 3/6: Folding the river with second pair...

chesspain

10-01-2004, 02:52 PM

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (9 handed)

CO seemed fairly loose-passive. BB hadn't been at the table very long; UTG also hadn't been at the table very long, and hadn't done anything noteworthy, except for attempting to opensteal from the CO with A3o.

Preflop: chesspain is MP1 with J/images/graemlins/spade.gif, J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
UTG calls, 1 fold, chesspain raises, 2 folds, CO calls, 2 folds, BB calls, UTG calls.

Flop: (8.33 SB) T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif, Q/images/graemlins/club.gif (4 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, chesspain bets, CO calls, BB calls, UTG calls.

Turn: (6.16 BB) 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (4 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, chesspain bets, CO calls, BB calls, UTG calls.

River: (10.16 BB) 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (4 players)
BB checks, UTG bets, chesspain folds... Since this river card isn't much of a scare card, and with two other opponents who've been calling along, am I really going to be good here at least 10% of the time when facing a bet like this? 

Final Pot: 11.16 BB
Main Pot: 10.16 BB, won by UTG.
Pot 2: 1 BB, returned to UTG.

ZZZ

10-01-2004, 03:15 PM

I've been playing in this game recently, and I think people do enough random crap there to put you above the 8% you need to call. I'd guess you're more in the 15-20% range.

ZZZ

chesspain

10-01-2004, 03:23 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I've been playing in this game recently, and I think people do enough random crap there to put you above the 8% you need to call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually, taking the rake into consideration, I need to be good here at least 10% of the time, assuming that neither of the other opponents calls with a worse hand.

[ QUOTE ]
I'd guess you're more in the 15-20% range.

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you basing this on the range of hands my opponent(s) could have? If not, are you saying that in your experience in this game that people who bet out on this type of river vs. three other opponents are betting with less than TP more than 15% of the time?

ZZZ

10-01-2004, 04:16 PM

[ QUOTE ]

Actually, taking the rake into consideration, I need to be good here at least 10% of the time, assuming that neither of the other opponents calls with a worse hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ah, the rake. I thought those SB and BB numbers took the rake into account, but you're right, they don't.

But something still doesn't add up. Minus 1/2 a BB for the rake, there 10.66 BBs in the pot when it gets to you (including your opponent's bet). That means you are getting 10.66 to 1 on a call which means you need to be better than 1/11.66 to make a call profitable. Just like if there's 2 BBs in the pot, you need to be good 1/3 or better to call. So 1/11.66 is 8.6%, not 10%.

Not that 8.6 vs. 10 makes a big difference, but it seems one of us is making a math error, and I'm trying to figure out if it's me.

[ QUOTE ]

Are you basing this on the range of hands my opponent(s) could have? If not, are you saying that in your experience in this game that people who bet out on this type of river vs. three other opponents are betting with less than TP more than 15% of the time?

[/ QUOTE ]

More the latter than the former, since it's tough to put unknown players on hands in this game, when their action went call, call, call, bet. It just seems to me that if I called in that situation, I wouldn't be shocked to see the pot pushed towards me. It feels better than a 10:1 shot to me.

Cheers,
ZZZ