Ichiro Roundtable on BP.

[ThaSaltCracka]

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=3518
Read and then discuss. It has some interesting views about the record and Ichiro's game.

[bugstud]

prety interesting, rather intuitive as well. Granted, the lack of infield singles is pretty impressive.

[ThaSaltCracka]

I just can't even imagine what it must be like to have to play infield against that guy. It must be a big headache when someone is on base when he comes up.

[Nick_Foxx]

i wish you hadn't posted that link... now i'm annoyed as hell... there is no question in my mind that what ichiro is accomplishing this season is WAY MORE IMPRESSIVE than mcgwire and bonds beating the single-season home-run record.
bonds broke a record that was several years old. mcgwire broke a record set in '61. it's been more than 80 years since sisler set the record and more than 70 years since anyone has gotten even CLOSE (over 250 safeties)

to downplay ichiro's achievement is just being negative for the sake of being negative.

mike

[bugstud]

but there are about 5-10 people playing that potentially have the skill set to do what ichiro is doing and get reasonably close to the hits record. Guys like Tyner as a farfetched example that had a lot of speed and little else could potentially get 200+ hits if they worked at it.

Vlad is about the only player that would be capable of nearing Bonds's level of production and I'm not sure that's possible.

[ThaSaltCracka]

hey I agree with you, but those guys on BP are big time Moneyball players. They're definitely the "new school". One thing that I found interesting though:
[ QUOTE ]
So your argument then is that Ichiro is intentionally making contact with the ball trying to make singles and not...doubles? This non-optimal strategy, if it exists, has been awfully productive for him and it's not as if hitting singles hurts the team.

Whether there's a tradeoff between extra-base hits and singles is debatable, but it's entirely possible concentrating on hitting singles is the better of these strategies, and until you can come up with a specific argument like "Ichiro is concentrating on singles, increasing his hit rate by 5% at the expense of 20% fewer 2B and 10% fewer HRs, a net loss of 40 bases since he adopted this strategy" all you're doing is guessing.


[/ QUOTE ] It's almost like Ichiro is using his singles as simply just another away to get on base. Some people may say he doesn't walk enough, but if he is getting on base, so what? If the pitchers aren't going to give him good pitches, then he needs to learn how to get on by hitting the corner strikes for infield singles and slap hits. I mean lets be honest, pitchers are not going to walk him. There not even going to pitch around him per-se, they simply are just going to give bad pitches to hit.

Earlier in the year Melvin flirted with the idea of Ichiro hitting 3rd in the order, and that now seems to be so stupid. Ichiro needs to be the leadoff hitter because his main job and his best function is simply get on base anyway possible, and for Ichiro that means a lot of singles, especially infield ones which exploit his speed and quickness.

[Nick_Foxx]

you've got to be joking... there are 5-10 guys who have the skill set to get close to the hits record in the majors right now?!? are u on crack?!?!? jesus christ

there hasn't been 5-10 players in the last Thirty YEARS that have had any shot at 250+ hits... here are the ones i would put in that category: rod carew... wade boggs... tony gwynn... umm thats about it

on the other hand, what about guys who can hit a bunch of homers? yeah they are a real rare breed...

mike

[ThaSaltCracka]

[ QUOTE ]
but there are about 5-10 people playing that potentially have the skill set to do what ichiro is doing

[/ QUOTE ]

Not really

Ichiro is one of the few players in the league who succeeds at putting the bale in play which results in a base hit(a non HR hit).

Take a look at this numbers.

Leaders: Balls in Play Percentage (BIP%)

Juan Pierre 87.4%
Endy Chavez 85.6%
A.J. Pierzynski 83.7%
Tike Redman 83.6%
Alex Cintron 83.5%
David Eckstein 83.4%
Cesar Izturis 83.4%
Aaron Miles 83.3%
Ichiro 83.1%
Sean Burroughs 83.0%


Trailers: Balls in Play Percentage (BIP%)

Barry Bonds 40.4%
Adam Dunn 41.0%
Jim Edmonds 44.3%
Jim Thome 45.3%
Jason Bay 49.9%
Sammy Sosa 50.2%
Pat Burrell 51.0%
Carlos Pena 51.6%
Carlos Delgado 51.9%
Mike Cameron 51.9%


Leaders: Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP)


Jim Edmonds .418
Ivan Rodriguez .398
Ichiro .397
Jason Varitek .396
Jason Bay .395
Melvin Mora .394
Erubiel Durazo .392
Lyle Overbay .384
Travis Hafner .379
J.D. Drew .378
Barry Bonds .377

Trailers: Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP)

Tony Batista .241
Joe Crede .253
Jose Valentin .255
Rafael Palmeiro .264
Jose Cruz .265
Jay Payton .266
Doug Mientkiewicz .269
Juan Encarnacion .269
Alex Gonzalez .271
Alex Cintron .271

source (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=3497)

Ichiro has speed, but he also is a very good contact hitter.

[ThaSaltCracka]

[ QUOTE ]
there hasn't been 5-10 players in the last Thirty YEARS that have had any shot at 250+ hits... here are the ones i would put in that category: rod carew... wade boggs... tony gwynn... umm thats about it

[/ QUOTE ] The most hits Gwynn ever had was 220 in a season. Here's one name you wouldn't have guessed.... Darren Erstad, he had 240 in 2000.

[Nick_Foxx]

i didnt put erstad in that same company because to me he was basically a one-season wonder... when i was following baseball in the mid-80's i actually thought boggs was going to break that record except for his inability to get any infield hits... but he probably had the best bat control i've seen in my lifetime (i'm 33)... him or keith hernandez

i guess mattingly also had a shot... i know he had close to 240 in 86

mike

[ThaSaltCracka]

238

[J.R.]

If you could build a team from the pool of all current MLB players (lets say for just one year to avoid a bias against older players), where on your list of nonpitchers does Ichiro fall? IMO that kinda puts Ichiro's season in perspective.

The single season hit record is record is impressive, but Bonds is having a more impressive year, and I believe if OPS had been a stat reported in the daily papers and discussed for the last 100 years Bonds' record breaking season would get more credit than Ichiro's.

[ThaSaltCracka]

[ QUOTE ]
If you could build a team from the pool of all current MLB players (lets say for just one year to avoid a bias against older players), where on your list of nonpitchers does Ichiro fall? IMO that kinda puts Ichiro's season in perspective.


[/ QUOTE ] I think this is fair, but I have one "but". He plays on a terrible team, IMO, his numbers, excluding hits, BA, OBP, SLG, are worse because of the team he plays on. If he was on a better team, I can't help but think he would have a lot more runs and RBI's.

[ QUOTE ]
The single season hit record is record is impressive, but Bonds is having a more impressive year, and I believe if OPS had been a stat reported in the daily papers and discussed for the last 100 years Bonds' record breaking season would get more credit than Ichiro's.

[/ QUOTE ] Both are having different, but great, seasons. IMO, no one is anywhere near Bonds(no one has been for 4 years).

[Uston]

I believe Erstad also has the most RBI in a season by a leadoff hitter ever. I recently heard that Johnny Damon currently has the fourth most RBI by a leadoff hitter ever. The guys above him (I'm not sure of the order) are Soriano, Erstad, and Garciaparra.

[bugstud]

I'm saying that the speed guys on your Balls in play list all would have an excellent shot of reaching the 220+ if not higher if they refined their system to emulate ichiro's a little more. If Juan Pierre inflates his hit rate he's capable of getting to that level.

*shrug* I'm just going off of some of the roundtable arguements.

[ThaSaltCracka]

I agree with you on Juan Pierre. He is sort of Ichiro-esque.

[B Dids]

Juan Pierre is like Ichiro like I'm like Doyle Brunson. We're both fat and play poker, but there's a big difference in how well we do it.

Here's some good stuff on that BP article.

http://ussmariner.com/index.php?p=1939