MLB 9/31!!

[MicroBob]

You mean September only has 30 days?? Geez, home these picks still have action.


ANA +105
COL +166

Usual analysis on the starters here.

ANA +105 - this has moved to +103 on Pinnacle.
Colo has been rather good in 4 of his last 5 starts including @TEX 8ip, 4h, 3r, 2er his last time out. He doesn't instill an overwhelming amount of confidence in me...but Mulder has really gotten shelled in his last 3 and seems to be struggling big-time.
Mulder's last 3:
9/15 v. TEX, 6ip, 11h, 8r, 8er, 2hra, 2bb, 5k
9/21 @ TEX 4ip, 8h, 9r, 5er, 1hra, 2bb, 2k
9/26 @ ANA 3,2ip, 6h, 4r, 3er, 1hra, 3bb, 2k
TOTAL - 13.2ip, 25h, 21r, 16er, 4hra, 7bb, 9k

Yes, I said SHELLED!!
Because of that I think ANA should be around -125 for this game...if not more.


COL +166 - Joe Kennedy is 9-6, 3.46. He pitched for Colorado for crying out loud! 3.46 in COL is about the same as having an ERA of 0.60 in SD. 5 of his last 6 starts he has allowed exactly 1 earned run.
last 3 starts: 19ip, 18h, 3er.
Sometimes has control probs. 6bb's in his last game.
Pete Munro is 4-7, 5.20. Pitching decently in his last 2 starts. His 2 starts before that he has allowed a combined 9er in 10ip. He's not that bad...but Kennedy is the hot hand here.

This is a profitable bet even if COL only wins this 40% of the time.
At +166 I'll flag down the bartender and order "Value on the Rocks!!"

[ihaterivers]

You can scream value all you want on that Colorado pick but you have to consider too the Astros have won 15 in a row at home, will be doing everything they can to win considering they are tied for the wild card, had a day off for rest, and Colorado was up pretty late and will be catching a red eye flight. Astros all the way on this one. Had this been a middle of the season game without as much implications then I would agree with you.

[Billy Baroo]

My picks

Min -127 1 unit
Phi +110 1 unit

Min -127 Minnesoata is at home where they play well, while Cleveland plays poorly on the road. Neither starter is particularly impressive, and I don't expect either of them to go very deep into the game. Minnesota has the stronger bullpen, which I think will be a factor.

Phi +110 Weathers for FLA is starting only his 2nd game of the year so he probably will only go 5 max., and I think Lidle is better than his stats this year (especially when he's keeping the ball in the park like he has for the past month and a half.) Philadelphia has the better record, they are at home, and they are a dog. I like it.

The line on Ana/Oak seemed about right to me, and I wasn't really sure what to make of Col/Hou...

[MicroBob]

MIN will want to be getting their relievers SOME action before the playoffs but they will be very careful to not be wearing anyone out of course....but if they have to go to the bullpen too early or too often then look for their AAA guys to eat up the innings.

I think the AAA thing is a fairly trivial issue for this game and that most of the MIN bullpen talent will come into play. Just pointing out that there is a significant exception for a game like this that could happen.

[MicroBob]

Probably getting on the 'Cubs-Self-Destruction' crew a day late....but I also have taken ATL +160 and think there is value there too. Although I'm admittedly not as sure on this one.

[Lori]

*Disclaimer, Astros fan.

Whilst I think Houston has muddled around to get many of their recent wins (Others say 'team effort', I've seen many of these, and whilst their fielding is great right now, they've hit poorly), the major problem with COL is not their starting pitchers.

I would imagine that Houston's last three innings will score enough to win the game here often enough to ruin the good starts that COL could, and probably will, get in this game.

Lori

[scalf]

/images/graemlins/blush.gif 10/1 i love ana..

but big bet is reds -124 pinny

gl

/images/graemlins/smirk.gif /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

[housenuts]

i just got the reds at -123 and the yankees at -120. first sports bets i've made in a few months.

[MrGo]

[ QUOTE ]
COL +166 - Joe Kennedy is 9-6, 3.46. He pitched for Colorado for crying out loud! 3.46 in COL is about the same as having an ERA of 0.60 in SD. 5 of his last 6 starts he has allowed exactly 1 earned run.
last 3 starts: 19ip, 18h, 3er.
Sometimes has control probs. 6bb's in his last game.
Pete Munro is 4-7, 5.20. Pitching decently in his last 2 starts. His 2 starts before that he has allowed a combined 9er in 10ip. He's not that bad...but Kennedy is the hot hand here.

This is a profitable bet even if COL only wins this 40% of the time.
At +166 I'll flag down the bartender and order "Value on the Rocks!!"

[/ QUOTE ]

In a game like this, numbers, IMO, are meaningless. Houston rides a 15 game home win streak and are playing with so much confidence right now. Garner is only asking for 5 quality innings from Munro tonight, which he will give them. Houston's bullpen is doing one hell of a job. Meanwhile, Colorado's is shaky to say the least. This Houston team is on fire at just the right time. I'd say COL wins this game about 20% of the time. Look for Houston to romp tonight.

Go 'Stros!

[craig r]

I am going to fade Scalf and MicroBob on the ANA/OAK game. I am taking OAK -105. Colon is coming off short rest, while Mulder is fully rested (or as rested as a starting pitcher can be). I don't feel like HFA is as important in baseball as other sports, but the A's sure have it this season. Their record is very good at home. Mulder has had a few bad starts recently, which is why this line is even this close. But, Colon has been inconsistent almost all year, needing the offense to hit him out of losses. Of course, I could be wrong and get smashed to hell on this one. But, I think the small edge deserves 1 unit.

craig

[MicroBob]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd say COL wins this game about 20% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]


So if HOU was -300 you would still take that bet because they are still getting value at 80%?? even with Pete Munro starting?

There aren't many baseball situations that come up where the favored team wins 80% of the time imo.


Lori's points on the COL bullpen are valid. I still think they pull it off 38-40% of the time though.

[Gallopin Gael]

[ QUOTE ]
I am going to fade Scalf and MicroBob on the ANA/OAK game. I am taking OAK -105.

[/ QUOTE ]

As a die-hard A's fan... from your mouth (or finger tips) to God's ears.

I hope you win this one. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[craig r]

Not that what I am about to say has anything to do with my bet tonight. But, I want OAK to win as well. I am a Boston fan. And unless MIN sweeps CLE, Boston will play the winner of the west.

craig

[MicroBob]

I never used to be a Dodgers "fan" per-se but I'm pulling for them this post-season.
I know a couple of their players and what they've been fun to watch this year.

As long as the Reds, Brewers and Tigers are out of the race (ummmm, that would be every year, right??) I have to find someone root for.

[MicroBob]

HOU 3 - COL 2 (6th)

COL has scored their whopping 2 runs off of 11 base-hits.
Wow that's a lot of runners LOB!
Great clutch-hitting guys!! LOL

[craig r]

It is the 6th, but good call MicroBob and Scalf. Somebody should tell the A's that this is the playoffs. And also that the purpose of baseball is to score runs (and stop your opponent from scoring runs).

[Gallopin Gael]

[ QUOTE ]
Somebody should tell the A's that this is the playoffs. And also that the purpose of baseball is to score runs (and stop your opponent from scoring runs).

[/ QUOTE ]

And what in their recent past would make you think that having a "playoff" attitude would help them /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

At least Blanton is looking good.

*sighs*

I'm going to go get a beer to cry in /images/graemlins/frown.gif

[MrGo]

I only said 80% because it was a number I threw out. I have to statistical data behind that whatsoever.

COL had no clutch hitting whatsoever tonight, thank god. They face Oswalt tomorrow....go L.A.!!