They bet into you on the flop after you limp reraised preflop.

[Stu Pidasso]

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed)

Preflop: Super Hero is UTG+1 with A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
UTG folds, Super Hero calls, UTG+2 folds, <font color="CC3333">MP1 raises</font>, MP2 folds, MP3 calls, CO folds, Button folds, SB calls, BB calls, <font color="CC3333">Super Hero 3-bets</font>, MP1 calls, MP3 calls, SB calls, BB calls.

Flop: (15 SB) 7/images/graemlins/club.gif, J/images/graemlins/club.gif, 8/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(5 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">SB bets</font>, BB calls............

Whats your play?

Stu

[joker122]

My first reaction was "No they did not!?!" and then I calmed down and I was like, "Raise."

[Stu Pidasso]

I folded.

A late position player raised the flop better. He ended up winning with a flopped set

What do you think of the fold?

Stu

[daveymck]

I dont think I would have done it but it is a good diciplined fold.

Your hand may still be best but you have no way to improve (ok 1 out), the pot is a decent size but you dont really want to goto war on this flop.

Again I still probably raise here and then worry when the fourth club comes or someone keeps raising.

[Alexthegreat]

You should have raised.....What are you giving them credit for?? A flush or straight isn't going to lead that flop, and the BB calling changes absolutely nothing...Raise instantly, and if you are 3-bet, you can THINK about folding on the turn...

[colgin]

Yeah, ugly board isn't it.

I don't hate your fold by any means (and you may have it just right here since this is going to be a tough hand to play the rest of the way) but I think I may have peeled one off here and see if a safe card comes on the turn. If it gets raised and re-raised behind you you have an easy fold. If any kind of bad card comes off on the turn and you are bet into again you have an easy fold.

Raising the flop makes no sense to me. You will get re-raised by a better made hand (2 pair a set, etc.) and you cannot force any of the draws you would like to fold to do so.

[joker122]

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah, ugly board isn't it.


[/ QUOTE ]

When is it not?

[ QUOTE ]


Raising the flop makes no sense to me. You will get re-raised by a better made hand (2 pair a set, etc.) and you cannot force any of the draws you would like to fold to do so.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is not true. He will get medium clubs, middle pairs, and gutshots to fold. The only hands that probably aren't folding to your raise are jacks, Ac, Kc, and maybe Qc. And if the other hands call they are making a mistake.

You have an overpair in a big pot. Bad fold.

[IndieMatty]

Funny, my initial reaction was, "I can't believe Hero limped in with his Aces."

Limp-reraising, specifically, not raising AA in low limit hold em sucks IMO.

[MAxx]

on the flop, i am poppin SB's lead. then i am going to see where that takes me. in this particular hand, I would have gotten threebet. On the turn and river I would have to decide between checkfolding and checkcalling. It depends of course.

Your play may have been dead on, but I am I not going to make a habbit of laying down the rockets too easily. They are just way to big of earners to lay them down at the first site of a scary board.

[colgin]

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah, ugly board isn't it.
[ QUOTE ]
When is it not?

[/ QUOTE ]


[/ QUOTE ]

Well I have seen better boards for A /images/graemlins/spade.gifA /images/graemlins/diamond.gif. Haven't you?

[ QUOTE ]
He will get medium clubs, middle pairs, and gutshots to fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

I will grant you the middle pairs but we will have to agree to disagree on the rest.

[MAxx]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Yeah, ugly board isn't it.
[ QUOTE ]
When is it not?

[/ QUOTE ]


[/ QUOTE ]

Well I have seen better boards for A /images/graemlins/spade.gifA /images/graemlins/diamond.gif. Haven't you?

[ QUOTE ]
He will get medium clubs, middle pairs, and gutshots to fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

I will grant you the middle pairs but we will have to agree to disagree on the rest.

[/ QUOTE ]

i think it is very player dependant on what you can get to fold. ie- a skilled or semiskilled player IMO would drop his singleton medium club on this flop/flop action wheras a fishy type isnt going anywhere. but i think that your raise does increase your chances of eliminating some undesireable draws... which I think makes the raise worth it.

however, you are still in trub against made hands... so i would also like to define who is going to be battling with me and what they are working with.

plus... for style points alone. i just couldnt bring myself to limp reraise with rockets only to fold the flop or probably even just call. the few times i l/r, i plan on raising the roof.
h

[BigEndian]

Stu, why did you choose to limp re-raise? This table doesn't appear to be inordinately tight given the action of this hand. Did you feel there was an almost certain raise behind you and you could trap the field for at least 3-bets?

- Jim

[joker122]

[ QUOTE ]
I will grant you the middle pairs but we will have to agree to disagree on the rest.


[/ QUOTE ]

As I said, even if they won't fold raising is correct because you allow them to call incorrectly.

[colgin]

[ QUOTE ]
I will grant you the middle pairs but we will have to agree to disagree on the rest.
[ QUOTE ]
As I said, even if they won't fold raising is correct because you allow them to call incorrectly.

[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]

First, I think many of them would be calling correctly.

But to the extent they are making a bad decision, (a) it is probaly not too -EV and (b) Hero is probably not the primary beneficiary of their mistake. Look at the action again. Hero may very well be behind, but if he is not he is up against at least one strong draw in all likelihood. Raising would be great if it could knock out enough weak draws to significantly increase his pot equity/overall chance of winning. But if they won't fold on the flop (as I contend) then I think Hero sees little to none of any mathematical mistake some of the cold-callers may be making but Hero could cost himself a lot more if he is , in fact, taking much the worst of it on this hand.

[Luke]

Stu,

I don't like the fold.

I think this is one of those spots where you should call on the flop and take your chances that they bet into you again on the turn so you can raise on the expensive streets if you like what falls. I'll fold if I'm 3-bet on the turn.

You have too much hand to fold on the flop, considering the pot size, even with 4 opponents and all the coordination.

Luke

[BigEndian]

The force is strong with this one.

- Jim

[bernie]

Well, a flop raise isn't going to do much here with the huge pot. Anyone reraising doesn't necesarily mean a flopped flush. You won't gain any info in raising as to where you're at. On the turn, you'll still be wondering.

I think you can maybe fold this here, which is probably the right play, but i dont like it for just one bet. Rocket enamoration and all that. /images/graemlins/grin.gif I'd probably call this bet and see how the action goes behind me. Then plan for the turn should i make it that far.. If it's raised behind me, then i have to re-assess. Player knowledge helps too for the opponents betting standards.

Then again, someone will likely say it's party poker and to ram n jam it regardless. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

b

[Stu Pidasso]

[ QUOTE ]

Funny, my initial reaction was, "I can't believe Hero limped in with his Aces."

Limp-reraising, specifically, not raising AA in low limit hold em sucks IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]

Big pairs like AA make most of thier money pre-flop therefore you should try to get as much money as possible into that pot preflop. When used correctly, the limp-reraise is a very profitable strategy.

As poker evolves the game is going to get more aggressive. As that happens more and more people are going to advocate limp re-raising with big pairs.

Stu

[IndieMatty]

I need this explained more to me. I understand the first part, but the old school player in me, see's me a)potentially giving a cheap flop and or if the limp re-raise is successful I am giving everyone and their sister the odds to draw out...(i know I am wrong with this right?)

[Stu Pidasso]

[ QUOTE ]
I need this explained more to me. I understand the first part, but the old school player in me, see's me a)potentially giving a cheap flop and or if the limp re-raise is successful I am giving everyone and their sister the odds to draw out...(i know I am wrong with this right?)

[/ QUOTE ]

a)If your not confident that someone will raise behind you, than you are not in a situation where limp-reraising is a good ideal.

b)Limp re-raising creates a very large pot. Its true that players will often have odds to draw against you, but it is also true that players will often fold hands that now have correct odds to draw. Suppose this flop came up ragged such that pocket Aces could continue to play. Anyone who folded with three outs to beat pocket Aces would be making an error. Pocket Aces would be benefiting from that error.

Stu

[JimRivett]

As poker evolves the game is going to get more aggressive

This is the I don't understand.

Regards,
Jim

[joker122]

[ QUOTE ]
I am giving everyone and their sister the odds to draw out...(i know I am wrong with this right?)


[/ QUOTE ]

This is really insignificant when you consider how big the preflop edge he is pushing. He makes a good deal of money on every bet that goes in preflop - period.

[Cerril]

It's mostly about table reads with limp-reraising. I'm very rarely confident that I have enough of the maniacal types behind me that I'll definitely be able to reraise. Some tables, though, it's just about guaranteed. But it's not a play you can ever make without solid reads.

[joker122]

[ QUOTE ]
You have too much hand to fold on the flop, considering the pot size, even with 4 opponents and all the coordination.

[/ QUOTE ]

EXACTLY. Raise the flop, wait till the turn...whatever. Just don't fold!

[Joe Tall]

What do you think of the fold?

I think it sucks and I'm surprised that you made it.

Peace,
Joe Tall

[joker122]

Thank God. I was starting to question my sanity for a minute.

[Trix]

I hate folding here and would probably just call, since a raise probably wont do enough to protect my hand and there are many turn cards where I´m going to fold.

[Stu Pidasso]

My hand has very little chance to improve, and to win I am almost positive I would have to show down. Pocket Aces may be best right now, but I cannot be confident of that.

When Making decision with a hand that has little chance to improve and when there will surely will be a showdown, you should not consider the cost to see the next card, rather consider what it will cost to get to the show down. Sklansky calls this concept reverse implied odds.

When I am face with my decision, there are 17 small bets in the pot. 17-1 looks good but it is utterly meaningless in this situation becuase I will certainly have to put in a lot more money into this pot in order to show down and win. Since I am depending on my hand holding up and not drawing to improve, I have to make my decision based on my reverse implied odds and not my current pot odds. My opponents who are looking to improve their hands should be making thier decisions based on their pot odds and implied odds.

If I just call the flop(wishing that everyone behind me folds), call the turn, and call the river without having to call any raises along the way, my reverse implied odds would likely end up being close to 5-1.

If I raise the flop(again wishing everyone behind me folds), bet the turn, and call one bet on the river(I factor it in because if I was heads up and I was bet into on the river I would probably call it at this point). My reverse implied odds would likely come in around 4.5-1.

Were I to continue, I would have raised(for many of the reasons that have been posted). Should I continue if I think my hand is best more than 22% of the time(or 1 in 4.5)? No becuase I have not yet factored in how often this hand gets drawn out on a board like this. If we assume this hand gets out drawn 50% of the time. We cannot say we are getting reverse implied odds of 4.5-1. These odds shrink to 2.25-1.

When faced with the decision to raise of fold on the flop, considering everything up to this point, It would be incorrect to continue in the hand if I did not think pocket aces was best at least 45% of the time. I believe against 4 opponents on a flop like this, pocket aces is still best more than 45% of the time(I would guess its best closer to 60% of the time).

What swings this decision to a fold is my position. I have essentially told everybody what hand I have by limp-reraising preflop yet the small blind bets into me. There is a strong possibility this bet means "I can beat aces". When I am bet into in this situation, my confidence in pocket aces shrinks.

Behind me is a player who also showed agression preflop. If this flop touched him at all there is a very good possibility he will raise or three bet. Everytime I have to put money into this pot, my reverse implied odds get worse. If I want to see a show down(i.e. if I want to win the pot), I will likely have to put a lot more money into this pot, more than I did in the rosey senarios.

The combination that it is less likey my aces are best and the consideration it is more likely my reverse implied odds will worsen make this a good fold.

Stu

[joker122]

I really don't understand why you think you're drawing dead all of the sudden just because the flop came coordinated with one suit. Are you actually telling me that someone has flopped a flush or a straight often enough to make folding the flop correct? Let me say this again, because apparently the first time didn't stick: you folded for one bet on the flop in a huge pot with an overpair. Your fold sucks.

[sthief09]

usually when someone bets into a PFR on the flop, he usually has some sort of pair/draw combination. maybe A /images/graemlins/club.gif7x or just the lone A /images/graemlins/club.gif. a lot of players will auto bet a draw, ignoring relative position and that stuff. most of the time he can't beat an overpair

I think the best play is calling the flop, then seeing what turns. then, if it looks good, raise. folding for one bet in a big pot with AA here is no good

it's amazing how many people are calling it good. just call and feel

[bernie]

This reminds me of a hand Roy Cooke played where he was in the same type of situation with AA. He folded. Might be worth looking up. It was in Cardplayer.

b

[Stu Pidasso]

[ QUOTE ]
I really don't understand why you think you're drawing dead all of the sudden just because the flop came coordinated with one suit.

[/ QUOTE ]

This isn't a problem about drawing(i.e. is there enough money in the pot to justify a call hoping the next card improves my hand). Its a problem about not being out drawn(i.e. will the final pot contain enough money to justify the cost of showing down).

[ QUOTE ]
Are you actually telling me that someone has flopped a flush or a straight often enough to make folding the flop correct?

[/ QUOTE ]

I suspect against 4 opponents unimproved pocket aces will be behind on the flop about 30-40% of the time. When it is ahead, it will get out drawn a significant amount of time. I'm telling you to consider the combination of being out flopped and being out drawn.

[ QUOTE ]
Let me say this again, because apparently the first time didn't stick: you folded for one bet on the flop in a huge pot with an overpair

[/ QUOTE ]

Its only one bet if you ignore the potential action behind you. Ignoring the potential action behind you is poor play.

Stu

[Stu Pidasso]

[ QUOTE ]
This reminds me of a hand Roy Cooke played where he was in the same type of situation with AA. He folded. Might be worth looking up. It was in Cardplayer.

b

[/ QUOTE ]

Theory of Poker - David Sklansky has a hand example which is similar to the one I played. Sklansky advocates folding in his example. The hand I played was different enough that I thought I should post it to see if people thought it was a good example of the application of the concept of reverse implied odds.

Stu

[nepenthe]

A flop bet and a call tells you nothing. This is LL Party. Call along and assess the action behind you. If everything looks good, wait for a safe turn card and raise. If reraised, depending on player read, position, etc. be inclined to let this one go. But not on the flop.