View Full Version : PL HE: Tough Beat or Idiot Play?
The following hand feels so much like a text book example of bad PL play it's almost eerie. 1/2 PL HE full handed. This is my first time playing full handed PL (I've played some short-handed before). I have the short stack with about $90. I limp UTG with AA planning to limp-reraise, bad idea? About 3 pots in 4 are raised pre-flop, so I feel pretty confident. Disaster strikes, 6 limpers and no raise.
Flop: T82r
Checked to me and I bet pot ($12). Folded to MP guy who raises pot making it $48 to go. Folded to me. I think he would do this with a weaker overpair or maybe even ATs. Regardless, I push all in for another $40 and he calls. I lose to TT. HELP!
Lets do the maths!
Hands he could raise on and number of those hands in the pack:
QQ - 6 JJ - 6 (not KK - he would have raised pre-flop surely?) AT - 16 TT - 6 88 - 6 22 - 6 T8 - 16
This would give you almost evens on the call. You're still ok even if you discount QQ.
A more complex calculation would be whether you should have bet into 6 people on the flop with one pair.(and I can't do that one)
Oh yes - the question "tough beat or bad play"
Could it be neither? Hey, these things happen (all the time actually, talk to me about it! Now the other day............)
Would the player have called an under the gun raise with TT anyway? In a 1/2 blind game, many players would call for $8. If that's the case, then it doesn't matter, because he still would have flopped a set against your aces. Now, if you two were heads up, the flop would have hit, you probably would have bet the pot ($20), and have been raised all in. Would you have folded in this situation?
Exactly- there really isn't much you could have done to save money except for folding to the re-raise. He would have played for a pre-flop raise. The other day I raised the pot in a 1-2 game, about 15 bucks, got called by like 5 players with 2 bucks in anyway, and lost with my KK to 10-7 suited when the flop came down 778. This crap just happens and at times it is unavoidable. You played the situation right except for maybe calling the re-raise, but like you said, he'd have probably made that raise with many hands weaker than AA, so calling in your situation wasn't all that bad. Basically, this hand just sucked- but next time your limp in the same situation could garner a huge pot. In that kind of game, it is probably best to keep limping, and hopefully next time, you'll be the one who flops the set.
It doesn't matter if he would have called a raise or not. Too results orientated IMO.
Seems like the "classic bad play" you think that it was. I have never played 1/2 pot, but I don't think that limp-raising UTG with AA would be as effective in 1/2 pot. Am I wrong?
Adam.
I think limp reraising is a good play especially if 3/4 of the flops are being raised.
With aces you need to get as much money in as possible pre-flop and limp reraising is a way that you can engineer this.
You state the obvious.
We all know why limp-raising with aces is effective, my question was is it AS effective in 1/2 pot limit?
Adam.
***Lets do the maths!
Hands he could raise on and number of those hands in the pack:
QQ - 6 JJ - 6 (not KK - he would have raised pre-flop surely?) AT - 16 TT - 6 88 - 6 22 - 6 T8 - 16 ***
With T82 out on the flop, the actual hand distribution is:
QQ-6, JJ-6, AT-12, TT-3, 88-3, 22-3, T8-9. So 24 hands that you can beat vs. 18 hands that beat you.
Against all the hands you beat, your opponent has 2 outs.
Against T8, any Ace, 2 or running pair wins for you, provided a T or 8 doesn't come along with a 2. This gives you about a 21% chance of winning.
Against TT, 88 or 22, you need an ace, so you have an 8.8% chance of winning.
This means that the 42.9% of the time you are losing, you win 15% of the time (on average, since he is equally likely to have a set as he is to have T8). This is a 6.4% chance of winning. Add that to the 57.1% of the time you are ahead (minus .571*.0878 for the times he makes trips = 52.1%) and you get a 58.5% chance of winning. This is slightly off, since it doesn't take into account you hitting an ace vs. his set of Q's or J's or him hitting his 4th of a kind vs. your set of aces, but those probabilities don't account for that big a difference (and adding them up would come out in your favor anyway).
So, you did the right thing to put all your money in on that flop, assuming the above possible hands are correct, and that it wasn't your entire bankroll that you were betting. Notice that if you remove QQ from the list, you are winning exactly as often as you are losing, but you have a better chance of outdrawing your opponent when you are losing than he does of outdrawing you when you are losing, so you still come out ahead.
Adam, are you aware that he is saying $1/2$ (blinds) and not .5 (or half)pot limit?
No, my mistake.
I read it as 1/2 pot limit. Thank you for pointing that out.
Adam.
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