Good fold or weak?

[Morta]

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (10 handed)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/club.gif.
UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 folds, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 folds, CO calls, Button calls, SB folds, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, MP1 calls, <font color="CC3333">MP2 3-bets</font>, CO calls, Button calls, <font color="CC3333">Hero caps</font>, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, CO calls, Button calls.

Flop: (20.50 SB) 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif, T/images/graemlins/club.gif, K/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(5 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, CO calls, Button folds.

Turn: (12.25 BB) Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(4 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">MP1 raises</font>, <font color="CC3333">MP2 3-bets</font>, CO folds, Hero folds, MP1 folds.

Final Pot: 18.25 BB


I didnt get a flush redraw, the board scary, and no read since it was the first hand at the table /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[zram21]

No flush redraw, but you did get the gut shot redraw. It seems likely that you have 6 outs here and you are getting 9:1 on your call. If you miss you should call one more bet on the river as well. So counting the bet on the river if you miss you are getting 5.3:1. If you only have 6 outs you really want 6.6:1 to call, but there is also the chance that your opponent has KQ and if the board pairs 5s or Ts you will still win.

It's probably a bit thin, but I think a call here and on the river is correct.

[sluttysteve]

What are his six outs again? Do the two aces really count as outs?

[James Boston]

Weak. You've still got top pair which is worth something. You picked up a gutshot, so that's 4 outs. If you're behind to 2-pair, you've got the other 2 aces and the other 3 fives. I think it's safe to assign at least 6 outs here. Call.

[Morta]

Okay thx. But can I count the J as an out since I could be splitting the pot then?

[James Boston]

[ QUOTE ]
can I count the J as an out since I could be splitting the pot

[/ QUOTE ]


Good point. Maybe not 4 outs, but certainly not no outs.

[Sidekick]

I'll offer up my opinion here.

With no reads this becomes a really tough hand IMO.

Preflop: Good.

Flop: Pretty standard. Only thing I might change is I might check hoping that MP2 will bet and I could then check-raise.

Turn: Based on the preflop betting I wouldn't be worried about MP1, but the raise from MP2 here is a worry. Based on the preflop betting (assuming he's a decent player which may be a totally off the mark assumption), I'd have to put MP2 on AA-TT or AK. Half of those hands have now made a set based off of the board. The fold here seems reasonable, but as this is the first hand at the table I think I call this bet and then based on the River card do a check and then call. The reason I call this is I want to find out on the first hand what MP2 will 3 bet preflop with and come over the top of a raise with.

In summary, I would call the bet on the Turn because there is a reasonable chance that my hand is still the best and I want to find out information about MP2.

This may be wrong, but it is how I would play it.

[runa]

Given the raise and re-raise on the turn, it is unlikely they have a flush draw. More likely they have 2-pair, straight with AJ, or a set QQ, KK, TT.

I would say your 4 jack outs are still good to give you a straight for the tie or win (what if they hold 2pair or the set?). Factoring in the tie possibility, count each as .5, so 2 outs. Your 2 ace outs are good for the set possibilities, and if the 5 pairs up (not sure the 10 is clean) you may redraw for a higher two pair. The pot is large, and as I learned from the earlier post *shudder* folding in a big pot can cost quite a bit.

With 7 outs, you have about 5.6:1 to improve and you are getting 9:1 pot odds at this point you can't fold. At least see the river.

[sluttysteve]

I'd call. You're getting your 10:1 gutshot odds.

[ArchonsEngine]

[ QUOTE ]
Weak. You've still got top pair which is worth something. You picked up a gutshot, so that's 4 outs. If you're behind to 2-pair, you've got the other 2 aces and the other 3 fives. I think it's safe to assign at least 6 outs here. Call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you sure you can count the remaining aces as outs when they put 4 to a straight on board? If an ace falls, you have to redraw to a full house or better against anyone with a jack (which I know has 10 outs, but still requires drawing again).

--ArchonsEngine

[Morta]

Well since the next card is the river, the redraw if an ace falls is not too possible /images/graemlins/wink.gif

But I think i made the right laydown. I had outs and good potodds but with no read on the opponents and some of my outs are for a split pot it didnt feel right then and not now. But I greatly appreciate all of the input. Not the last time I will post hand examples here /images/graemlins/smile.gif